Bon Air Long-Term Crime Study 2004-2020 #3: Breakdown by Zones and Year by Year.

 

This is the third of a long-term study of the police reports in the Bon Air Neighborhood between 2004 and 2020.  It is sifted from https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports.   

All reports are for the 6th District within the boundaries of 

1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The data is in the form of CSV files, easily read by Microsoft Excel.  The CSV files were then loaded in the JASP software, which is an open-source statistical package. 

Today I am looking at the crime reports by the "zones."  As I have discussed earlier in other blog posts, the neighborhood has essentially been divided into zones between 2004 and 2008 when there was a movement for neighborhood associations by the Louisville Metro Department of Neighborhoods.  In a grand sense of governance, each of the neighborhood associations was each given something of jurisdictions with spatial boundaries.  I have been abiding by those boundaries in my crime analyses. 

So, with that in mind, let's get to it shall we? 

Overall as probably is no surprise to my few regular teachers who have followed these analyses over the years, the "Bon Air" section (as shown in the frequency table) has by far had the most reports with 78.2 percent while the Bon Air Estates had less than two percent of the reports 

Frequencies by Bon Air Zone

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZONE		Bon Air		10806		13824		0.782		< .001
		Bon Air Estates		218		13824		0.016		< .001
		Highgate Springs		2800		13824		0.203		< .001

It looks a little more dramatic on a bar graph: 

The Bon Air zone is larger and has the most active areas primarily on its fringes.  The Bardstown Road corridor is the prime source of its increase.  The Bon Air Estates zone is the smallest and has the fewest points of access which may contribute to its low number. 

The next section is an analysis year by year. I will present the numbers by frequency tables and by more interesting histograms. 

Bon Air

BANA police reports 2004-2020

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		436		10806		0.040		< .001
		2005		507		10806		0.047		< .001
		2006		478		10806		0.044		< .001
		2007		744		10806		0.069		< .001
		2008		820		10806		0.076		< .001
		2009		659		10806		0.061		< .001
		2010		674		10806		0.062		< .001
		2011		654		10806		0.061		< .001
		2012		646		10806		0.060		< .001
		2013		733		10806		0.068		< .001
		2014		796		10806		0.074		< .001
		2015		637		10806		0.059		< .001
		2016		675		10806		0.062		< .001
		2017		652		10806		0.060		< .001
		2018		593		10806		0.055		< .001
		2019		516		10806		0.048		< .001
		2020		586		10806		0.054		< .001

There were two peak years in the Bon Air Zones:2007 and 2013. There has been a nice overall decline from that time in reports since 2013  It is notable however there were 150 reports (n=586) more in 2020 than 2004 (n=436). 

Highgate Springs

It is interesting that Highgate Springs had peak years of 2006 and 2012 one year prior to both peak years in Bon Air. 

Highgate Springs Police Reports 2004-2020

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		140		2800		0.050		< .001
		2005		124		2800		0.044		< .001
		2006		204		2800		0.073		< .001
		2007		176		2800		0.063		< .001
		2008		161		2800		0.058		< .001
		2009		161		2800		0.058		< .001
		2010		211		2800		0.075		< .001
		2011		171		2800		0.061		< .001
		2012		210		2800		0.075		< .001
		2013		153		2800		0.055		< .001
		2014		133		2800		0.048		< .001
		2015		164		2800		0.059		< .001
		2016		163		2800		0.058		< .001
		2017		177		2800		0.063		< .001
		2018		167		2800		0.060		< .001
		2019		138		2800		0.049		< .001
		2020		147		2800		0.052		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Bon Air Estates

Lastly, Bon Air Estates will be reviewed 

As noted, it had less than two percent of the reports. 

 Bon Air Estates Police Reports 2004-2020

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		3		218		0.014		< .001
		2005		13		218		0.060		< .001
		2006		22		218		0.101		< .001
		2007		11		218		0.050		< .001
		2008		8		218		0.037		< .001
		2009		5		218		0.023		< .001
		2010		11		218		0.050		< .001
		2011		21		218		0.096		< .001
		2012		11		218		0.050		< .001
		2013		13		218		0.060		< .001
		2014		22		218		0.101		< .001
		2015		16		218		0.073		< .001
		2016		23		218		0.106		< .001
		2017		14		218		0.064		< .001
		2018		11		218		0.050		< .001
		2019		8		218		0.037		< .001
		2020		6		218		0.028		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

 

What is interesting is that the Bon Air Estates zone did not follow the two modes (peaks) of both Highgate Springs and Bon Air Zones, but had a peak between 2014-2017.  Of course, it is great that 2020 had only about 20 percent of the reports that existed in 2004. 

Overall,  it can be shown that the crime levels have gone down from peaks and have been in a declining trend.  Covid1-19 probably held down some of the crime and police reports because Seneca High School was not having face-to-face classes much of the year and there were fewer AWOL's from Boys and Girls Haven.

Next, time, the focus will be on burglaries. We will run them down as to where they mostly happened and when they mostly happened. 

If you haven't joined, I hope you consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood.   We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. 

The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   (Sorry, we are unable to do the electronic banking options)

Otherwise, if you find this material helpful, feel free to re-share this post on social media and tell your neighbors about it.