Bon Air Crime Analysis for February 2021. Maybe Something Maybe not, but a Few Curiosities.

  This is an analysis for February 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

Last month when I did the analysis about seven days into February, the data base only had date through January 23.  I am writing this on March 10.  There was a complete set for February, and there were more reports known for Febrary than January but I can't really say there was an increase. My OCD side said that I could have gone back and re-run the numbers of January, but I just don't feel like it and my rational side said that you good people following my analyses probably are okay with that. 

LMPD took 61 reports in the observed area.  

No surprises that the 40218 zones and Bon Air Zones had the higher number of reports. 

Reports by Zip Code

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		43		60		0.717		0.001
		40220		17		60		0.283		0.001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

 Reports by Zone

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Zone		Bon Air		46		60		0.767		< .001
		Highgate Springs		14		60		0.233		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Furthermore, it is no surprise that the 3300 Block of Bardtown Rd/ had 13 incidents (21.7 percent). 

Assaults were the most reported crime there

Types of Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		6		13		0.462		1.000
		BURGLARY		2		13		0.154		0.022
		OTHER		1		13		0.077		0.003
		ROBBERY		2		13		0.154		0.022
		THEFT/LARCENY		1		13		0.077		0.003
		VANDALISM		1		13		0.077		0.003

The majority of events happened at  the "Hotel."

Location of Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
PREMISE_TYPE		CONVENIENCE STORE		1		13		0.077		0.003
		HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY		1		13		0.077		0.003
		HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.		6		13		0.462		1.000
		NON-ATTACHED RESD GARAGE/SHED/BULD		1		13		0.077		0.003
		OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)		2		13		0.154		0.022
		PARKING LOT / GARAGE		1		13		0.077		0.003
		SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC)		1		13		0.077		0.003
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

 

Of the six incidents that happened at the hotel/motel, two of the incidents were assaults and two of the incidents were 1st-degree robberies.   (In the long-term crime analysis series I am doing, we will study this area and probably see if some people in Michigan are paying attention to this blog. 

Otherwise,  overall in the most comment report for Febuary was assault. 

Types of Police Reports in Bon Air in February 2021

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		17		60		0.283		0.001
		BURGLARY		4		60		0.067		< .001
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		1		60		0.017		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		2		60		0.033		< .001
		FRAUD		2		60		0.033		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		2		60		0.033		< .001
		OTHER		12		60		0.200		< .001
		ROBBERY		2		60		0.033		< .001
		SEX CRIMES		1		60		0.017		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		9		60		0.150		< .001
		VANDALISM		6		60		0.100		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		2		60		0.033		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The assaults overall were spread throughout the neighborhood. 

Location of Assaults in Bon Air, February 2021

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		100 BLOCK ALGIERS CT		1		17		0.059		< .001
		2200 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		2700 BLOCK SHARON WAY		1		17		0.059		< .001
		300 BLOCK CHANEL CT		2		17		0.118		0.002
		3000 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		6		17		0.353		0.332
		3300 BLOCK HEATHER LN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3300 BLOCK NOE WAY		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		17		0.059		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Here is where the thefts/larcenies happened.

Location of Thefts/Larcenies

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		1		9		0.111		0.039
		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		1		9		0.111		0.039
		2600 BLOCK MEADOW DR		1		9		0.111		0.039
		2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL		1		9		0.111		0.039
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		2		9		0.222		0.180
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		9		0.111		0.039
		3300 BLOCK STRATFORD AVE		1		9		0.111		0.039
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		9		0.111		0.039

They appeared to happen mostly in the business zones. 

Here is where the vandalism reports were made. 

Location of the Vandalism Reports

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2700 BLOCK MASEMURE CT		1		6		0.167		0.219
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3500 BLOCK BROCKTON LN		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		6		0.167		0.219

They were along the edges of the neighborhood, although I am surprised that there is not more vandalism along the sound barrier wall. 

The other curiosities 

I am calling this category the other curiosities. 

Most of the reports were made in the middle of the week. 

Days of the week reports were made

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Weekday		Friday		5		60		0.083		< .001
		Monday		6		60		0.100		< .001
		Saturday		4		60		0.067		< .001
		Sunday		8		60		0.133		< .001
		Thursday		14		60		0.233		< .001
		Tuesday		11		60		0.183		< .001
		Wednesday		12		60		0.200		< .001

The burglaries all happened in the 3300 and 3400 blocks of Bardstown Rd.  The burglaries in the 3400 block were at the storage facility while the 3300 block burglaries happened in a garage and an "apartment." 

There were two drug charges at I-264 and Bardstown.  It is hard to say if it were the panhandlers being charged. They both were made on February 1 at the same time. 

Related to the drug charges there were drug overdoses that LMPD rolled on.  One was death on Rio Rita and one was a non-fatal overdose on Ramona Avenue. We are continuing to have a trickle of drug-related issues in the neighborhood. 

Pertaining to cars, there were two vehicle break-ins in the Bon Air zone at the 2200 and 2400 blocks of Hikes Lane reported one week apart   There were two car thefts from 3100 Commander Drive and the 3600 block Kings Highway. reported a day apart from each other. 

The last curiosity and certainly the most disturbing are related to indecency/sex. There was one report of public indecency in the 3300 block of Noe Way and one rape reported in the 3100 block of Talisman. 

If I were to note any sense of patterns they would be that things are beginning to heat up again at the hotel/motel, there are drug overdoses, and there could be the beginning of car thefts/break-ins again. There was another rape, but there is no way to tell much else about whether it was a predatory, stranger perpetration, or a date gone wrong.   

I do appreciate you all reading this and I thank you for the likes on Facebook, and I do hope that this information is useful in helping you be aware and make choices for your safety and security.  We would really appreciate your membership and support of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. 

The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization to become members. If you have been a member and just haven't renewed, we hope you do.  You can send your membership fee in the form of a check to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.