This is the fourth of a long-term study of the police reports in the Bon Air Neighborhood between 2004 and 2020. It is sifted from https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports.
All reports are for the 6th District within the boundaries of
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.
The data is in the form of CSV files, easily read by Microsoft Excel. The CSV files were then loaded in the JASP software, which is an open-source statistical package.
Today, I am looking at burglaries over the time period. After all, burglaries are a concern of homeowners. Burglaries invade and violate the sanctity of the home.
To get right to it, within the
Let us start by year.
Burglaries
in Historical Bon Air By Year
|
Variable |
Level |
Counts |
Total |
Proportion |
p |
||||||
|
YEAR |
2004 |
55 |
1263 |
0.044 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2005 |
69 |
1263 |
0.055 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2006 |
90 |
1263 |
0.071 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2007 |
111 |
1263 |
0.088 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2008 |
98 |
1263 |
0.078 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2009 |
90 |
1263 |
0.071 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2010 |
98 |
1263 |
0.078 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2011 |
81 |
1263 |
0.064 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2012 |
83 |
1263 |
0.066 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2013 |
107 |
1263 |
0.085 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2014 |
56 |
1263 |
0.044 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2015 |
69 |
1264 |
0.055 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2016 |
49 |
1263 |
0.039 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2017 |
68 |
1263 |
0.054 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2018 |
48 |
1263 |
0.038 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2019 |
44 |
1263 |
0.035 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
2020 |
47 |
1263 |
0.037 |
< .001 |
||||||
Essentially, it is a favorable trend in that there is a downtrend over the past four years. The year 2007 was overall an influential year in the motivation of organization of neighborhood associations given how high burglaries were.
When we look by month we can see a pattern that has resembled the trend in previous studies.
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This is what it looked like graphically.  |
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February had the fewest reports while the highest months were in the spring and fall.
With regard to days of the week there was this mountain in the middle of the week.
|
Bon Air Burglaries by Weekday 2004-2020 |
|||||||||
|
Level |
Counts |
Total |
Proportion |
p |
|||||
|
Friday |
210 |
1263 |
0.166 |
< .001 |
|||||
|
Monday |
191 |
1263 |
0.151 |
< .001 |
|||||
|
Saturday |
129 |
1263 |
0.102 |
< .001 |
|||||
|
Sunday |
132 |
1263 |
0.105 |
< .001 |
|||||
|
Thursday |
194 |
1263 |
0.154 |
< .001 |
|||||
|
Tuesday |
193 |
1263 |
0.153 |
< .001 |
|||||
|
Wednesday |
214 |
1263 |
0.169 |
< .001 |
|||||
|
|
|||||||||
This is what it looks like graphically.
As you can see burglaries happened at a much higher rate over the weekdays. Bon Air essentially has been a commuter neighborhood and while people are at work, This was especially a problem previously in the Highgate Springs zone.
Narrowing it down to Residences
I decided to narrow focus on just residences. This is based on what the LMPD officers called a residence. The reports often distinguished between a residence and an apartment, but for those of you familiar with Rowena Rd, it is 99 percent apartment houses with one building that appears to be a single-family residence, but appears to be a business. Nevertheless, there were still some burglaries reported on Rowena Rd reported as being in a residence. Gerald Ct is also all apartment complexes that also appear to contain condos, but it also was rated as "residences" in the LMPD reports. When the database was cut down to just residences, the size was reduced to 854 cases.
There were 134 streets that had reports of burglaries but not all of them were residences and they were at the edge of the area and could very well have been on the other side of the border. The following blocks had 10 or more burglaries in residences.
Bon Air Block Addresses with 10 or more burglaries 2004-2020 by block address
|
Variable |
Level |
Counts |
Total |
Proportion
|
p |
||||||
|
BLOCK_ADDRESS
|
2200 BLOCK
GERALD CT |
15 |
854 |
0.018 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2200 BLOCK
HEATHER LN |
13 |
854 |
0.015 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2200 BLOCK
LIVERPOOL LN |
30 |
854 |
0.035 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2200 BLOCK
PARIS DR |
11 |
854 |
0.013 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2300 BLOCK
MEDFORD LN |
12 |
854 |
0.014 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2300 BLOCK
TERRIER CT |
18 |
854 |
0.021 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2500 BLOCK
FUREEN DR |
15 |
854 |
0.018 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2500 BLOCK
WYCKFORD WAY |
11 |
854 |
0.013 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2700 BLOCK
GOLDSMITH LN |
10 |
854 |
0.012 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2700 BLOCK
SHANNON DR |
14 |
854 |
0.016 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2800 BLOCK
DELL BROOKE AVE |
10 |
854 |
0.012 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
2900 BLOCK
RIO RITA AVE |
17 |
854 |
0.020 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3000 BLOCK
BOAIRES LN |
11 |
854 |
0.013 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3000 BLOCK
RADIANCE RD |
13 |
854 |
0.015 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3100 BLOCK
RADIANCE RD |
12 |
854 |
0.014 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3100 BLOCK
TALISMAN RD |
15 |
854 |
0.018 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3200 BLOCK
BON AIR AVE |
10 |
854 |
0.012 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3200 BLOCK
RADIANCE RD |
15 |
854 |
0.018 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3200 BLOCK
STRATFORD AVE |
15 |
854 |
0.018 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3300 BLOCK
GOLDSMITH LN |
11 |
854 |
0.013 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3300 BLOCK
NOE WAY |
18 |
854 |
0.021 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
|
3300 BLOCK
TERRIER LN |
|
10 |
|
854 |
|
0.012 |
|
< .001
|
|
|
|
3300 BLOCK
WELLINGMOOR AVE |
12 |
854 |
0.014 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3400 BLOCK
ALLISON WAY |
17 |
854 |
0.020 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3500 BLOCK
BROCKTON LN |
15 |
854 |
0.018 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3500 BLOCK
LISBON LN |
23 |
854 |
0.027 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3500 BLOCK
TERRIER LN |
16 |
854 |
0.019 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3600 BLOCK
GREEN MEADOWS DR |
15 |
854 |
0.018 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
3600 BLOCK
STANTON BLVD |
20 |
854 |
0.023 |
< .001
|
||||||
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
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For the Bon Air zone overwhelmingly had the most burglary reports.
|
Burglaries by Zone 2004-2020 |
|||||||||||
|
Variable |
Level |
Counts |
Total |
Proportion |
p |
||||||
|
ZONE |
Bon Air |
858 |
1263 |
0.679 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
Bon Air Estates |
48 |
1263 |
0.038 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
Highgate Springs |
357 |
1263 |
0.283 |
< .001 |
||||||
Because of this, another variable was added called "Quadrant" because the previously used "Zone" has merely reflected political boundaries and does not give an adequate sense of the geographical dispersion.
The dividing lines are approximate and precise. The east-west axis is from Kelly Way to Talisman Rd to Meadow Lane. The north-south axis is a little simpler as it is Goldsmith Lane into Ada Lane.
When we go along these lines, the burglaries are more evenly split.
Burglaries
total by quadrant in all premises
|
Variable |
Level |
Counts |
Total |
Proportion |
p |
||||||
|
Quardrant |
NE |
248 |
1263 |
0.196 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
NW |
377 |
1263 |
0.298 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
SE |
294 |
1263 |
0.233 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
SW |
344 |
1263 |
0.272 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
Note. Proportions
tested against value: 0.5. |
|||||||||||
When reducing it to residences, the northwest quadrant still has the most burglaries. Furthermore, the northeast quadrant, which is some of Bon Air Estates and some of Highgate Springs leapfrogs the
|
Burglaries in single home residences 2004-2020 |
|||||||||||
|
Variable |
Level |
Counts |
Total |
Proportion |
p |
||||||
|
Quardrant |
NE |
203 |
854 |
0.238 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
NW |
230 |
854 |
0.269 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
SE |
199 |
854 |
0.233 |
< .001 |
||||||
|
|
SW |
222 |
854 |
0.260 |
< .001 |
||||||
southeast quadrant. The southwest quadrant stayed in second place in both analyses.
Conclusions
To sum up the high points about burglaries in the Bon Air Neighborhood:
1) Burglaries have gone down over the past few years.
2) Burglaries have happened during the week and no on weekends.
3) When divided into quadrants, the northwest corner of the neighborhood has had a higher proportion of burglaries but there is not necessarily a large difference between the quadrants.
I do think that over the past several years when people have purchased doorbell cameras, perimeter cameras, and alarms they have discouraged burglaries because they have made their residences hardened targets. These options are becoming more and more affordable and easier to install.
Next time, I will study the 3300 block of Bardstown Rd. It is the location that has the most crime reports month after month and year after year.
Thank you for following this blog and I hope that this information is useful to you.
If you haven't joined, I hope you consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood. We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. (Sorry, we are unable to do the electronic banking options)
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