A Bon Air Long-term Crime/Police Reports Study 2004-2020 Part 1: The Overall Numbers

As I was researching the January 2021 monthly crime analysis that has been one of the staples of this blog, I saw how much open data LMPD has accumulated on crime reports since the Metro Government had come into existence and I heard the words of the late Neil Peart (virtuoso drummer of the rock group Rush): 

It could be done.

It should be done

It must be done. 

He originally made the statement when he was riding between concerts in South America in 2003. He rode his motorcycle from Brazil down to Argentina.  I am not as cool as he was, but I admired his intellect and passion, so while I'll never ride a motorcycle, I have the quirky passion for doing research. 

So, I started sifting the data in Microsoft Excel files from 2003 through 2020. from https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports.   All reports are for the 6th District within the boundaries of 

1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

In this database, I left in the "other" reports.  Also, I cut out all non- LMPD 6th Division reports. 

The data for 2003 was incomplete so I cut that from the data set.  I am using the JASP software, which is an open-source statistical package, and Microsoft Excel for certain features.  

My thoughts are that we can see where things have gone in terms of different kinds of criminal activities and the areas of the crime reports.  

Let's start with crime reports overall.  There were 13824 reports taken by LMPD in the boundaries of the historical Bon Air neighborhood from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2020.  

First is a table of the data year by year.  

Bon Air Crime 2004-2020

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		579		13824		0.042		< .001
		2005		644		13824		0.047		< .001
		2006		704		13824		0.051		< .001
		2007		931		13824		0.067		< .001
		2008		989		13824		0.072		< .001
		2009		825		13824		0.060		< .001
		2010		896		13824		0.065		< .001
		2011		846		13824		0.061		< .001
		2012		867		13824		0.063		< .001
		2013		899		13824		0.065		< .001
		2014		951		13824		0.069		< .001
		2015		817		13824		0.059		< .001
		2016		861		13824		0.062		< .001
		2017		843		13824		0.061		< .001
		2018		771		13824		0.056		< .001
		2019		662		13824		0.048		< .001
		2020		739		13824		0.053		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

In a histogram/bar graph, the information looks like this: 

2008 was the year with the most police reports.  That was also a year that woke up the neighborhood with a very publicized sexual assault in the Highgate Springs zone that led to an interest in neighborhood associations and some grassroots interest like the "Ticked Off Moms that held some marches.

It is interesting that 2004, the first year of the data collection was the lowest.  It was also the first full year of Louisville Metro's existence.  I can only guess as to what led to the increase in reports, but if you look at the graph, there was a steady progression of increase between 2004 and 2006 with a sizeable jump between 2006 and 2007.  

The rest of the observed time shows increases and decreases but an overall trend of decrease from 2014.  2019 was a decent year in the scheme of things because it had fewer reports than 2006. It is noticeable that 2020 has ticked up even Covid making more people stay away from people. 

The plans for this series include looking at different types of crimes, where they happened, and a few studies on problem areas.   I think that there are at least 10 articles to write from this data. We might come up with recommendations as we go along. 

I want to close with a pitch to encourage you to consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood.   We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. 

The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.