The Bon Air Observer: March 2021

This is the fifth of a long-term study of the police reports in the Bon Air Neighborhood between 2004 and 2020. It is sifted from https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports.

All reports are for the 6th District within the boundaries of

1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.

The data is in the form of CSV files, easily read by Microsoft Excel. The CSV files were then loaded in the JASP software, which is an open-source statistical package.

Today I am looking at the 3300 Block of Bardstown Rd/2200 Block of Goldsmith Lane. It has consistently been the location with the highest number of police reports month after month: 3322 which is about 23 percent of the reports over the 16 years. Alone the block of 3300 of Bardstown Rd had 3066 reports

First, let us look by year.

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown By Year

Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
YEAR	2004	143	3322	0.043	< .001
	2005	190	3322	0.057	< .001
	2006	166	3322	0.050	< .001
	2007	250	3322	0.075	< .001
	2008	243	3322	0.073	< .001
	2009	169	3322	0.051	< .001
	2010	243	3322	0.073	< .001
	2011	210	3322	0.063	< .001
	2012	193	3322	0.058	< .001
	2013	250	3322	0.075	< .001
	2014	322	3322	0.097	< .001
	2015	208	3322	0.063	< .001
	2016	179	3322	0.054	< .001
	2017	182	3322	0.055	< .001
	2018	119	3322	0.036	< .001
	2019	119	3322	0.036	< .001
	2020	136	3322	0.041	< .001

Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The highest number of crime reports was 2008 (n=243) followed by 2014 (n=322).

The histogram indicated that the period of time between 2013 and 2015 was the most significant period of time for crime reports. There is starting to be an uptick again according to these numbers.

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown By Month

Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
Month	April	282	3322	0.085	< .001
	August	265	3322	0.080	< .001
	December	256	3322	0.077	< .001
	February	287	3322	0.086	< .001
	January	278	3322	0.084	< .001
	July	323	3322	0.097	< .001
	June	268	3322	0.081	< .001
	March	320	3322	0.096	< .001
	May	305	3322	0.092	< .001
	November	255	3322	0.077	< .001
	October	263	3322	0.079	< .001
	September	220	3322	0.066	< .001

Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The highest months for crime reports were July (n=323), and March (n=320) while the lowest month was September. It was interesting that April and May (the Derby months) were not the highest.

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown By Weekday

Binomial Test
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
Weekday	Friday	504	3322	0.152	< .001
	Monday	535	3322	0.161	< .001
	Saturday	451	3322	0.136	< .001
	Sunday	378	3322	0.114	< .001
	Thursday	519	3322	0.156	< .001
	Tuesday	482	3322	0.145	< .001
	Wednesday	453	3322	0.136	< .001

Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Contrary to the chart about the crime reports in the rest of the neighborhood in report #1, the crime reports trend higher on the weekends and Mondays versus on Wednesdays.

Now what exact were the types of police reports?

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown By Crime Type

Binomial Test
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
CRIME_TYPE	ARSON	1	3322	3.010e -4	< .001
	ASSAULT	425	3322	0.128	< .001
	BURGLARY	110	3322	0.033	< .001
	DISTURBING THE PEACE	74	3322	0.022	< .001
	DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS	996	3322	0.300	< .001
	DUI	4	3322	0.001	< .001
	FRAUD	171	3322	0.051	< .001
	HOMICIDE	1	3322	3.010e -4	< .001
	MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT	149	3322	0.045	< .001
	OTHER	363	3322	0.109	< .001
	ROBBERY	74	3322	0.022	< .001
	SEX CRIMES	35	3322	0.011	< .001
	THEFT/LARCENY	635	3322	0.191	< .001
	VANDALISM	117	3322	0.035	< .001
	VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT	119	3322	0.036	< .001
	WEAPONS	48	3322	0.014	< .001

Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

By far, the most common police reports were alcohol and drug violations followed by thefts/larcenies, then assaults and then the other category.

Where did the reports happen? By far, most of the reports (28.5 percent) happened at the hotels.

3300 Bardstown Rd/2200 Goldsmith Lane PREMISE_TYPE
PREMISE_TYPE	Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
ATM SEPARATE FROM BANK	2	0.060	0.061	0.061
BANK / SAVINGS & LOAN	39	1.174	1.180	1.241
CHURCH / SYNAGOGUE / TEMPLE	8	0.241	0.242	1.483
COMMERCIAL / OFFICE BUILDING	48	1.445	1.453	2.936
CONSTRUCTION SITE	3	0.090	0.091	3.027
CONVENIENCE STORE	165	4.967	4.994	8.021
CYBERSPACE	4	0.120	0.121	8.142
DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE	10	0.301	0.303	8.444
DRUG STORE/DR`S OFFICE/HOSPITAL	6	0.181	0.182	8.626
FIELD / WOODS	1	0.030	0.030	8.656
GOVERNMENT / PUBLIC BUILDING	1	0.030	0.030	8.686
GROCERY / SUPERMARKET	2	0.060	0.061	8.747
HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY	344	10.355	10.412	19.159
HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.	947	28.507	28.662	47.821
JAIL / PENITENTARY	1	0.030	0.030	47.851
LIQUOR STORE	37	1.114	1.120	48.971
OTHER / UNKNOWN	175	5.268	5.297	54.268
OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)	169	5.087	5.115	59.383
PARK / PLAYGROUND	1	0.030	0.030	59.413
PARKING LOT / GARAGE	550	16.556	16.646	76.059
RENTAL / STORAGE FACILITY	2	0.060	0.061	76.120
RESIDENCE / HOME	305	9.181	9.231	85.351
RESTAURANT	117	3.522	3.541	88.892
SCHOOL - ELEMENTARY / SECONDARY	1	0.030	0.030	88.923
SERVICE / GAS STATION	281	8.459	8.505	97.427
SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC)	85	2.559	2.573	100.000
Missing	18	0.542
Total	3322	100.000

Now the hotel matter requires some review of history. In 2004 there were three operating hotels: The Travel Lodge, The Quality Inn, and the Economy Inn. Originally the Quality Inn was a Holiday Inn. The Travel Lodge was originally called the Admiral Benbow Inn. The Economy Inn was originally called the Brown Suburban. These hotels were part of the destination that was Bardstown Road.

Over time these hotels became tired and run-down and lost out to the newer competition The clientele also changed to keep occupancy up. Nevertheless, time won out and the Travel Lodge had lost its medallion and called itself something else, went bankrupt and the property was sold and it was torn down in 2014 and became a car wash. The Holiday Inn/Quality Inn changed its name one more time and was eventually torn down in September 2015 for the new Thorntons. The only standing hotel was the Economy Inn (now Budgetel Inn).

Given that context, this next graph shows the change in reports with the number of hotels

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown by Hotel quantity

Binomial Test
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
V16	Only Economy Inn	163	947	0.172	< .001
	Three hotels	608	947	0.642	< .001
	Two Hotels	176	947	0.186	< .001

From 2004-2014 when there were three operating hotels, there were 608 reports. It is interesting that for the one year that there were two hotels, there were 176 reports. Since it has been only the Budgetel/Economy Inn, there have been 163 reports, but there was also pressure on the pugnacious Michigan-based owners to do something. The anecdotal information is that they hired security to put the lid on a lot of things to keep things from getting to the level of calling the police.

Nevertheless, it serves to review what was reported:

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown by Hotel quantity

Binomial Test
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
CRIME_TYPE	ASSAULT	164	947	0.173	< .001
	BURGLARY	23	947	0.024	< .001
	DISTURBING THE PEACE	30	947	0.032	< .001
	DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS	356	947	0.376	< .001
	DUI	1	947	0.001	< .001
	FRAUD	18	947	0.019	< .001
	MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT	30	947	0.032	< .001
	OTHER	128	947	0.135	< .001
	ROBBERY	24	947	0.025	< .001
	SEX CRIMES	30	947	0.032	< .001
	THEFT/LARCENY	97	947	0.102	< .001
	VANDALISM	35	947	0.037	< .001
	VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT	3	947	0.003	< .001
	WEAPONS	8	947	0.008	< .001

Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The most common crime report was drug-related offenses. I will now break down the "other" category.

The "Other" police reports at Hotels at 3300 Bardstown Rd 2004-2020

Binomial Test
Variable	Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		ACCIDENTAL DEATH (OTHER THAN DROWNING AND HUNTING)		3		128		0.023		< .001
		ANY NON CRIMINAL CHARGE NOT COVERED BY THESE CODES		1		128		0.008		< .001
		CACU UNSUBSTANTIATED CASES		1		128		0.008		< .001
		DEATH INVESTIGATION		20		128		0.156		< .001
		DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT		11		128		0.086		< .001
		DRUG PARAPHERNALIA-BUY/POSSESS-2ND OR > OFFENSE		1		128		0.008		< .001
		FAILURE TO COMPLY W/SEX OFFENDER REGISTRATION - 1ST OFF		3		128		0.023		< .001
		FAILURE TO COMPLY W/SEX OFFENDER REGISTRATION-2ND > OFFENSE		1		128		0.008		< .001
		FAILURE TO REGISTER TRANSFER OF MOTOR VEHICLE		1		128		0.008		< .001
		FLEEING OR EVADING POLICE - 1ST DEGREE (ON FOOT)		1		128		0.008		< .001
		FLEEING OR EVADING POLICE - 2ND DEGREE (MOTOR VEHICLE)		1		128		0.008		< .001
		FLEEING OR EVADING POLICE - 2ND DEGREE (ON FOOT)		1		128		0.008		< .001
		GIVING OFFICER FALSE NAME OR ADDRESS		4		128		0.031		< .001
		HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS		4		128		0.031		< .001
		INJURED PERSON REQUIRING POLICE REPORT		2		128		0.016		< .001
		INTIMIDATING A PARTICIPANT IN LEGAL PROCESS		2		128		0.016		< .001
		LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANC		1		128		0.008		< .001
		LESSER INCLUDED THEFT		5		128		0.039		< .001
		MENACING		1		128		0.008		< .001
		MISSING PERSONS		5		128		0.039		< .001
		NO OR EXPIRED REGISTRATION PLATES		2		128		0.016		< .001
		NON-CRIMINAL DEATH (NATURAL CAUSES)		2		128		0.016		< .001
		OPERATING ON SUSPENDED/REVOKED OPERATORS LICENSE		2		128		0.016		< .001
		OVERDOSE		8		128		0.063		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB-1ST DEGREE-1ST OFFENSE-DRUG UNSPECIFIED		2		128		0.016		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB-1ST DEGREE-2ND OFFENSE-DRUG UNSPECIFIED		1		128		0.008		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB-3RD DEGREE-1ST OFFENSE-DRUG UNSPECIFIED		2		128		0.016		< .001
		POSS OF MARIJUANA		4		128		0.031		< .001
		POSSESSION OF SYNTHETIC CANNABINOID AGONISTS OR PIPEAZINES		1		128		0.008		< .001
		PRESCRIPTION CONT SUB NOT IN ORIGINAL CONTAINER-1ST OFFENSE		1		128		0.008		< .001
		PRESCRIPTION CONT SUB NOT IN ORIGINAL CONTAINER-2ND OR >OFF		1		128		0.008		< .001
		PROPERTY LOST OR ABANDONED NON CRIMINAL		1		128		0.008		< .001
		RECOVERY OF STOLEN PROPERTY		2		128		0.016		< .001
		RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION		3		128		0.023		< .001
		RESISTING ARREST		1		128		0.008		< .001
		SERVING BENCH WARRANT FOR COURT		3		128		0.023		< .001
		SEXUAL ABUSE - 1ST DEGREE		1		128		0.008		< .001
		SEXUAL ABUSE-1ST DEGREE		1		128		0.008		< .001
		SODOMY - 1ST DEGREE		3		128		0.023		< .001
		SUICIDE		2		128		0.016		< .001
		TAMPERING WITH PHYSICAL EVIDENCE		6		128		0.047		< .001
		TERRORISTIC THREATENING 3RD DEGREE		2		128		0.016		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB WITHIN 1000 YRDS OF SCHOOL		2		128		0.016		< .001
		UNAUTHORIZED USE OF MOTOR VEHICLE 1ST OFFENSE		2		128		0.016		< .001
		UNLAWFUL TRANSACTION W/MINOR - 3RD DEGREE		1		128		0.008		< .001
		VIOLATION OF KENTUCKY EPO/DVO		1		128		0.008		< .001
		WANTON ENDANGERMENT-1ST DEGREE		1		128		0.008		< .001
		WANTON ENDANGERMENT-2ND DEGREE		1		128		0.008		< .001

Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

What is significant is that there were a number of sex-related offenses, a number of deaths, and drug cases in the other category.

When I look at the numbers, it appears that since the majority of the reports happened at hotels/motels, the closing of the two hotels may have made a difference in the downward trend. I have questions about whether the appearance of the homeless camps at this location and the increase in homeless panhandlers are part of the current uptick?

Next time I will study drug offenses in the neighborhood.

Thank you for following this blog and I hope that this information is useful to you.

If you haven't joined, I hope you consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood. We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. (Sorry, we are unable to do the electronic banking options)

The Bon Air Observer

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Bon Air Long Term Crime Analysis #5 Focus on the 3300 Block of Bardstown Rd.