Bon Air Crime Analysis for February 2021. Maybe Something Maybe not, but a Few Curiosities.

  This is an analysis for February 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

Last month when I did the analysis about seven days into February, the data base only had date through January 23.  I am writing this on March 10.  There was a complete set for February, and there were more reports known for Febrary than January but I can't really say there was an increase. My OCD side said that I could have gone back and re-run the numbers of January, but I just don't feel like it and my rational side said that you good people following my analyses probably are okay with that. 

LMPD took 61 reports in the observed area.  

No surprises that the 40218 zones and Bon Air Zones had the higher number of reports. 

Reports by Zip Code

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		43		60		0.717		0.001
		40220		17		60		0.283		0.001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

 Reports by Zone

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Zone		Bon Air		46		60		0.767		< .001
		Highgate Springs		14		60		0.233		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Furthermore, it is no surprise that the 3300 Block of Bardtown Rd/ had 13 incidents (21.7 percent). 

Assaults were the most reported crime there

Types of Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		6		13		0.462		1.000
		BURGLARY		2		13		0.154		0.022
		OTHER		1		13		0.077		0.003
		ROBBERY		2		13		0.154		0.022
		THEFT/LARCENY		1		13		0.077		0.003
		VANDALISM		1		13		0.077		0.003

The majority of events happened at  the "Hotel."

Location of Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
PREMISE_TYPE		CONVENIENCE STORE		1		13		0.077		0.003
		HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY		1		13		0.077		0.003
		HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.		6		13		0.462		1.000
		NON-ATTACHED RESD GARAGE/SHED/BULD		1		13		0.077		0.003
		OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)		2		13		0.154		0.022
		PARKING LOT / GARAGE		1		13		0.077		0.003
		SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC)		1		13		0.077		0.003
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

 

Of the six incidents that happened at the hotel/motel, two of the incidents were assaults and two of the incidents were 1st-degree robberies.   (In the long-term crime analysis series I am doing, we will study this area and probably see if some people in Michigan are paying attention to this blog. 

Otherwise,  overall in the most comment report for Febuary was assault. 

Types of Police Reports in Bon Air in February 2021

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		17		60		0.283		0.001
		BURGLARY		4		60		0.067		< .001
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		1		60		0.017		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		2		60		0.033		< .001
		FRAUD		2		60		0.033		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		2		60		0.033		< .001
		OTHER		12		60		0.200		< .001
		ROBBERY		2		60		0.033		< .001
		SEX CRIMES		1		60		0.017		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		9		60		0.150		< .001
		VANDALISM		6		60		0.100		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		2		60		0.033		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The assaults overall were spread throughout the neighborhood. 

Location of Assaults in Bon Air, February 2021

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		100 BLOCK ALGIERS CT		1		17		0.059		< .001
		2200 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		2700 BLOCK SHARON WAY		1		17		0.059		< .001
		300 BLOCK CHANEL CT		2		17		0.118		0.002
		3000 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		6		17		0.353		0.332
		3300 BLOCK HEATHER LN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3300 BLOCK NOE WAY		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		17		0.059		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Here is where the thefts/larcenies happened.

Location of Thefts/Larcenies

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		1		9		0.111		0.039
		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		1		9		0.111		0.039
		2600 BLOCK MEADOW DR		1		9		0.111		0.039
		2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL		1		9		0.111		0.039
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		2		9		0.222		0.180
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		9		0.111		0.039
		3300 BLOCK STRATFORD AVE		1		9		0.111		0.039
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		9		0.111		0.039

They appeared to happen mostly in the business zones. 

Here is where the vandalism reports were made. 

Location of the Vandalism Reports

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2700 BLOCK MASEMURE CT		1		6		0.167		0.219
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3500 BLOCK BROCKTON LN		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		6		0.167		0.219

They were along the edges of the neighborhood, although I am surprised that there is not more vandalism along the sound barrier wall. 

The other curiosities 

I am calling this category the other curiosities. 

Most of the reports were made in the middle of the week. 

Days of the week reports were made

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Weekday		Friday		5		60		0.083		< .001
		Monday		6		60		0.100		< .001
		Saturday		4		60		0.067		< .001
		Sunday		8		60		0.133		< .001
		Thursday		14		60		0.233		< .001
		Tuesday		11		60		0.183		< .001
		Wednesday		12		60		0.200		< .001

The burglaries all happened in the 3300 and 3400 blocks of Bardstown Rd.  The burglaries in the 3400 block were at the storage facility while the 3300 block burglaries happened in a garage and an "apartment." 

There were two drug charges at I-264 and Bardstown.  It is hard to say if it were the panhandlers being charged. They both were made on February 1 at the same time. 

Related to the drug charges there were drug overdoses that LMPD rolled on.  One was death on Rio Rita and one was a non-fatal overdose on Ramona Avenue. We are continuing to have a trickle of drug-related issues in the neighborhood. 

Pertaining to cars, there were two vehicle break-ins in the Bon Air zone at the 2200 and 2400 blocks of Hikes Lane reported one week apart   There were two car thefts from 3100 Commander Drive and the 3600 block Kings Highway. reported a day apart from each other. 

The last curiosity and certainly the most disturbing are related to indecency/sex. There was one report of public indecency in the 3300 block of Noe Way and one rape reported in the 3100 block of Talisman. 

If I were to note any sense of patterns they would be that things are beginning to heat up again at the hotel/motel, there are drug overdoses, and there could be the beginning of car thefts/break-ins again. There was another rape, but there is no way to tell much else about whether it was a predatory, stranger perpetration, or a date gone wrong.   

I do appreciate you all reading this and I thank you for the likes on Facebook, and I do hope that this information is useful in helping you be aware and make choices for your safety and security.  We would really appreciate your membership and support of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. 

The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization to become members. If you have been a member and just haven't renewed, we hope you do.  You can send your membership fee in the form of a check to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   

Bon Air Longterm Crime Study 2004-2020 #2 Reports by Month and Weekday.

 

This is the second of a long-term study of the police reports in the Bon Air Neighborhood between 2004 and 2020.  It is sifted from https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports.   

All reports are for the 6th District within the boundaries of 

1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The data is in the form of CSV files, easily read by Microsoft Excel.  The CSV files were then loaded in the JASP software, which is an open-source statistical package. 

Today I am looking at the crime reports by month and weekday in the neighborhood. I regret to say that there is nothing "dramatic" in trends, but some stuff that is noticeable.  Let's get after it. 

For the record here is a frequency table. The months are listed alphabetically.  

Bon Air Police Reports by the Month 2004-2020

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Month		April		1156		13824		0.084		< .001
		August		1280		13824		0.093		< .001
		December		1049		13824		0.076		< .001
		February		1018		13824		0.074		< .001
		January		1097		13824		0.079		< .001
		July		1235		13824		0.089		< .001
		June		1119		13824		0.081		< .001
		March		1206		13824		0.087		< .001
		May		1160		13824		0.084		< .001
		November		1117		13824		0.081		< .001
		October		1215		13824		0.088		< .001
		September		1172		13824		0.085		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

This line graph is a little more educational. 

August is the month with the most reports (N=1280) with 9.3 percent while February has the fewest with (N=1018) or 7.4 percent.  That is a difference of 262 reports.  I would say the weather does make a difference. 

Now to the consideration of the weekday.  Here is a frequency table . . .

Bon Air Police Reports by the Weekday 2004-2020

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Weekday		Friday		2045		13824		0.148		< .001
		Monday		2028		13824		0.147		< .001
		Saturday		1783		13824		0.129		< .001
		Sunday		1571		13824		0.114		< .001
		Thursday		2172		13824		0.157		< .001
		Tuesday		2116		13824		0.153		< .001
		Wednesday		2109		13824		0.153		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Here is a little more educational histogram chart. 

Oddly by a slim margin, Thursday is the day of the week with the most police reports at 15.7 percent while Sunday at the fewest reports with 12.9 percent. The histogram paints that more police reports are made during the weekdays than on weekends. 

It would seem that the Monday reports are catch-up days from Sunday when businesses are opening and counting the damage from weekends, but the peak of Thursday reports would suggest that is not the case. I imagine as I go along, there will be some kind of answer.   It also serves to mention again, that I left the "other" category in this database whereas I have typically taken it out of the month analyses because I did not feel it appropriate to keep track of how many runaways Boys and Girls Haven has on a regular basis, especially since they have a high frequency..  

We otherwise do not have any attractions that draw weekend crowds like the notorious or infamous Toy Tiger that I had heard so much.  That would seem to make the weekends quieter. 

Next time, I will look at the crime reports by the different zones as demarcated by the now-defunct Department of Neighborhoods between 2004 and 2008.  The demarcations were political and by census tract. 

I want to close again with a pitch to encourage you to consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood.   We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. 

The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   (Sorry, we are unable to do the electronic banking options like venmo and zelle and Paypal.)  

 

 

A Bon Air Long-term Crime/Police Reports Study 2004-2020 Part 1: The Overall Numbers

As I was researching the January 2021 monthly crime analysis that has been one of the staples of this blog, I saw how much open data LMPD has accumulated on crime reports since the Metro Government had come into existence and I heard the words of the late Neil Peart (virtuoso drummer of the rock group Rush): 

It could be done.

It should be done

It must be done. 

He originally made the statement when he was riding between concerts in South America in 2003. He rode his motorcycle from Brazil down to Argentina.  I am not as cool as he was, but I admired his intellect and passion, so while I'll never ride a motorcycle, I have the quirky passion for doing research. 

So, I started sifting the data in Microsoft Excel files from 2003 through 2020. from https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports.   All reports are for the 6th District within the boundaries of 

1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

In this database, I left in the "other" reports.  Also, I cut out all non- LMPD 6th Division reports. 

The data for 2003 was incomplete so I cut that from the data set.  I am using the JASP software, which is an open-source statistical package, and Microsoft Excel for certain features.  

My thoughts are that we can see where things have gone in terms of different kinds of criminal activities and the areas of the crime reports.  

Let's start with crime reports overall.  There were 13824 reports taken by LMPD in the boundaries of the historical Bon Air neighborhood from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2020.  

First is a table of the data year by year.  

Bon Air Crime 2004-2020

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		579		13824		0.042		< .001
		2005		644		13824		0.047		< .001
		2006		704		13824		0.051		< .001
		2007		931		13824		0.067		< .001
		2008		989		13824		0.072		< .001
		2009		825		13824		0.060		< .001
		2010		896		13824		0.065		< .001
		2011		846		13824		0.061		< .001
		2012		867		13824		0.063		< .001
		2013		899		13824		0.065		< .001
		2014		951		13824		0.069		< .001
		2015		817		13824		0.059		< .001
		2016		861		13824		0.062		< .001
		2017		843		13824		0.061		< .001
		2018		771		13824		0.056		< .001
		2019		662		13824		0.048		< .001
		2020		739		13824		0.053		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

In a histogram/bar graph, the information looks like this: 

2008 was the year with the most police reports.  That was also a year that woke up the neighborhood with a very publicized sexual assault in the Highgate Springs zone that led to an interest in neighborhood associations and some grassroots interest like the "Ticked Off Moms that held some marches.

It is interesting that 2004, the first year of the data collection was the lowest.  It was also the first full year of Louisville Metro's existence.  I can only guess as to what led to the increase in reports, but if you look at the graph, there was a steady progression of increase between 2004 and 2006 with a sizeable jump between 2006 and 2007.  

The rest of the observed time shows increases and decreases but an overall trend of decrease from 2014.  2019 was a decent year in the scheme of things because it had fewer reports than 2006. It is noticeable that 2020 has ticked up even Covid making more people stay away from people. 

The plans for this series include looking at different types of crimes, where they happened, and a few studies on problem areas.   I think that there are at least 10 articles to write from this data. We might come up with recommendations as we go along. 

I want to close with a pitch to encourage you to consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood.   We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. 

The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.