Bon Air Long Term Crime Analysis #5: Drug Related Offenses 2004-2020

 

This is the sixth of a long-term study of the police reports in the Bon Air Neighborhood between 2004 and 2020.  It is sifted from https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports.  

All reports are for the 6th District within the boundaries of 

1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The data is in the form of CSV files, easily read by Microsoft Excel.  The CSV files were then loaded in the JASP software, which is an open-source statistical package. 

Reviving this series was motivated by the shooting on May 17,2021 at about 3pm at the McDonalds at the 3300/3400 block of Bardstown Road.  From the local news reports LMPD believes it was targeted but they have no suspects.  My honest opinion is that it was drug-related. 

However, it would seem to be good news in the Bon Air Neighborhood when it comes to drug-related offenses because they have trended down in the neighborhood. 

During the time period, there were 2136 reports.   2013-2014 had the highest numbers with  197 and 251 reports respectively.  Then the numbers went down. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		122		2136		0.057		< .001
		2005		97		2136		0.045		< .001
		2006		100		2136		0.047		< .001
		2007		225		2136		0.105		< .001
		2008		163		2136		0.076		< .001
		2009		113		2136		0.053		< .001
		2010		159		2136		0.074		< .001
		2011		131		2136		0.061		< .001
		2012		131		2136		0.061		< .001
		2013		197		2136		0.092		< .001
		2014		251		2136		0.118		< .001
		2015		121		2136		0.057		< .001
		2016		113		2136		0.053		< .001
		2017		90		2136		0.042		< .001
		2018		72		2136		0.034		< .001
		2019		37		2136		0.017		< .001
		2020		14		2136		0.007		< .001

As been in the other reports, here are some other analyses. 

The peak months for drug activity in the neighborhood are March-April and July-August. It is difficult to say what events correlate with those peaks. 

 It was interesting to me is that the majority of the drug-related offenses were on Wednesdays and Thursdays.  The weekends had the lowest number of reports.

There were numerous types of reports that defeated graphical representation, however, the type of drug offense most common in the report was "buy/possess paraphernalia," which accounted for 35 percent.  Possession of marijuana accounted for 27 percent of the reports.   The remaining 38 percent included trafficking and possession of other substances. For the record, there were eight charges for manufacturing meth and 12 cultivation of marijuana charges. 

Where were the Reports? 

There were so many locations again where LMPD reported drug-related offenses that I decided to report block addresses that had more than 10 reports 

Addresses of more than 10 reports

				Counts		Total		Proportion		p
		2200 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		33		2136		0.015		< .001
		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		25		2136		0.012		< .001
		2200 BLOCK HIKES LN		30		2136		0.014		< .001
		2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN		13		2136		0.006		< .001
		2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT		20		2136		0.009		< .001
		2400 BLOCK MEADOW DR		12		2136		0.006		< .001
		2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL		21		2136		0.010		< .001
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		23		2136		0.011		< .001
		2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE		13		2136		0.006		< .001
		3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN		13		2136		0.006		< .001
		3000 BLOCK RADIANCE RD		10		2136		0.005		< .001
		3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD		14		2136		0.007		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		963		2136		0.451		< .001
		3300 BLOCK NOE WAY		34		2136		0.016		< .001
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		61		2136		0.029		< .001
		3400 BLOCK TERRIER LN		13		2136		0.006		< .001
		3500 BLOCK BROCKTON LN		30		2136		0.014		< .001
		3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		10		2136		0.005		< .001
		3600 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		23		2136		0.011		< .001
		3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR		21		2136		0.010		< .001
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		12		2136		0.006		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD		31		2136		0.015		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / BASHFORD MANOR LN		45		2136		0.021		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / HEATHER LN		41		2136		0.019		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN		45		2136		0.021		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / MEADOW DR		18		2136		0.008		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / PARIS DR		17		2136		0.008		< .001
		DEL RIO PL / MINA TER		11		2136		0.005		< .001
		FURMAN BLVD		10		2136		0.005		< .001
		FURMAN BLVD / TAYLORSVILLE RD		17		2136		0.008		< .001
		GOLDSMITH LN / STRATFORD AVE		12		2136		0.006		< .001
		GREEN MEADOWS DR / HIKES LN		12		2136		0.006		< .001
		HIKES LN / NOE WAY		16		2136		0.007		< .001

What screams from this chart is that the 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had 45.1 percent (963) of the charges followed by the 3400 block of Bardstown Rd with a distant 2.9 percent (61 reports). 

So, what has been happening at Bardstown Rd? 

By year, the trend followed everything else.  It peaked between 2013-2014 and started dropping in 2015. 

Reports by Year at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		55		963		0.057		< .001
		2005		58		963		0.060		< .001
		2006		37		963		0.038		< .001
		2007		86		963		0.089		< .001
		2008		91		963		0.094		< .001
		2009		36		963		0.037		< .001
		2010		69		963		0.072		< .001
		2011		56		963		0.058		< .001
		2012		74		963		0.077		< .001
		2013		91		963		0.094		< .001
		2014		145		963		0.151		< .001
		2015		53		963		0.055		< .001
		2016		35		963		0.036		< .001
		2017		49		963		0.051		< .001
		2018		17		963		0.018		< .001
		2019		8		963		0.008		< .001
		2020		3		963		0.003		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Where were the reports being made? 

Premises of Drug Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
PREMISE_TYPE		COMMERCIAL / OFFICE BUILDING		1		961		0.001		< .001
		CONVENIENCE STORE		12		961		0.012		< .001
		DRUG STORE/DR`S OFFICE/HOSPITAL		2		961		0.002		< .001
		HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY		223		961		0.232		< .001
		HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.		356		961		0.370		< .001
		OTHER / UNKNOWN		33		961		0.034		< .001
		OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)		31		961		0.032		< .001
		PARKING LOT / GARAGE		178		961		0.185		< .001
		RESIDENCE / HOME		96		961		0.100		< .001
		RESTAURANT		6		961		0.006		< .001
		SCHOOL - ELEMENTARY / SECONDARY		1		961		0.001		< .001
		SERVICE / GAS STATION		22		961		0.023		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

By far most of the reports were at motels/hotels.  My thought is that the reports dropped when the old Holiday/Quality Inn and the old Travel Lodge were torn down. 

What was happening?  On this, I will be detailed. 

Types of Drug Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
sorted variation		Alcohol Intoxication		10		963		0.010		< .001
		DRUG PARAPHERNALIA - BUY/POSSESS		398		963		0.414		< .001
		DRUG PARAPHERNALIA - DELIVER/MANUFACTURE		1		963		0.001		< .001
		Drinking Alcohol Bev In Public Place		2		963		0.002		< .001
		ILLEGAL POSSESSION OF LEGEND DRUG		1		963		0.001		< .001
		MANUFACTURING METHAMPHETAMINE		5		963		0.005		< .001
		OPEN CONTAINER IN VEHICLE		1		963		0.001		< .001
		POSS A CONT SUB		5		963		0.005		< .001
		POSS COCAINE		56		963		0.058		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB--CODEINE		2		963		0.002		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB--DRUG UNSPECIFIED		83		963		0.086		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB--HEROIN		49		963		0.051		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB--OPIATES		1		963		0.001		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB-COCAINE		7		963		0.007		< .001
		POSS CONTROLLED SUB METHAMPHETAMINE)		14		963		0.015		< .001
		POSS OF CONT SUBSTANCE - (DATE RAPE		2		963		0.002		< .001
		POSS OF MARIJUANA		220		963		0.228		< .001
		POSSESSION OF SYNTHETIC DRUGS		4		963		0.004		< .001
		POSSESSION OF SALVIA		1		963		0.001		< .001
		PRESCRIPTION CONT SUB NOT IN ORIGINAL CONTAINER-1ST OFFENSE		7		963		0.007		< .001
		PUBLIC INTOXICATION CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE (EXCLUDES ALCOHOL)		3		963		0.003		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB WITHIN 1000 YRDS OF SCHOOL		8		963		0.008		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB- HEROIN)		4		963		0.004		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB- OPIATES)		2		963		0.002		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB-COCAINE		14		963		0.015		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB-COCAINE)		7		963		0.007		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB-DRUG UNSPECIF		5		963		0.005		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB-UNSPECIFIED)		3		963		0.003		< .001
		TRAF IN CONT SUB-1ST OFFENSE		6		963		0.006		< .001
		TRAF IN CONT SUBST METH		7		963		0.007		< .001
		TRAF IN MARIJUANA		33		963		0.034		< .001
		TRAF N CONT SUB 1ST DEGREE 1ST OR > (>= 10 DU DATE RAPE		1		963		0.001		< .001
		TRF CON SUB 2ND DEG 1ST OFN (>= 20 DU DRUG UNSPEC SCH III		1		963		0.001		< .001

So, 41.4 percent were found with some kind of paraphernalia and about 30 percent were found in possession.  I find it interesting that there were five meth lab charges during that time period. 

When I think about the Trend . . .

I think that there is some good news in that the overall trend is down.  Tearing down two of the motels that had been languishing really cut into the numbers.  However, the past year reflects that LMPD has been reducing enforcement and patrolling due to Covid-19.  The pandemic of addiction is still high and there were numerous stories about drug-related deaths. I think that coming out of the pandemic we will see an increase in drug-related charges because it will be safe enough for LMPD to engage in narcotics activity. 

Next time I will look at motor-vehicle-related reports.

Thank you for following this blog and I hope that this information is useful to you. 

If you haven't joined, I hope you consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood. We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. (We are working on getting PayPal) 

Bon Air Crime Analysis for April. Numbers were Down Overall.

This is an analysis for April 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

The Overall Numbers

Overall, numbers were down from March.  Including the "other" categories, there were 62 reports during March. 

Crime Reports by Zone
Level								Counts			Total			Proportion				p
Bon Air								50			62			0.806				< .001
Highgate Springs								12			62			0.194				< .001
.
Crime Reports by Zip Code
Variable				Level			Counts			Total			Proportion						p
	40218		47			62			0.758						< .001
	40220		15			62			0.242						< .001
.

The usual zone and zip code had more reports.  It is notable that Bon Air Estates had no reports. 

I have one caveat as to whether there were more reports because LMPD recording reported events very differently.  There were 338 reports for April that were labeled "city at large."  It is possible that there more crime reports, but the following is what is clearly within the observed area. 

Where Were The Most Reports? 

In terms of the location with the most reports, the 2300 block of Goldsmith actually had more reports with 13.  I do tend to downplay what happens there as most of them are "missing persons."  It is of course, Boys and Girls Haven and oppositional kids leave campus to go to Thorntons or they actually do run and every time that happens, the police have to be called.  Otherwise, the 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had the most with eight (8) reports. 

.  The Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 4 13 0.308 0.267   OTHER 3 13 0.231 0.092   THEFT/LARCENY 4 13 0.308 0.267   VANDALISM 1 13 0.077 0.003   WEAPONS 1 13 0.077 0.003 . The Premises of Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p PREMISE_TYPE COMMERCIAL / OFFICE BUILDING 1 13 0.077 0.003   GROCERY / SUPERMARKET 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER / UNKNOWN 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO) 3 13 0.231 0.092   PARKING LOT / GARAGE 2 13 0.154 0.022   RESTAURANT 3 13 0.231 0.092   SERVICE / GAS STATION 2 13 0.154 0.022 .  It is notable that the hotel/motel did not have any reports.  Breakdown of the Types of Crime Reports Here is a breakdown of the types of reports Crime Reports by Type Level Counts Total Proportion p ASSAULT 10 62 0.161 < .001 BURGLARY 2 62 0.032 < .001 FRAUD 1 62 0.016 < .001 MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 5 62 0.081 < .001 OTHER 22 62 0.355 0.030 ROBBERY 1 62 0.016 < .001 THEFT/LARCENY 13 62 0.210 < .001 VANDALISM 5 62 0.081 < .001 VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 2 62 0.032 < .001 WEAPONS 1 62 0.016 < .001 Largest category: Other The "Other" category was the most common report. Here is a breakdown of it.  The "Other" Reports Level Counts Total Proportion p DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 4 22 0.182 0.004 LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE 2 22 0.091 < .001 MISSING PERSONS 15 22 0.682 0.134 PROPERTY LOST OR ABANDONED NON CRIMINAL 1 22 0.045 < .001 Next largest: Larcenies/Thefts Otherwise, when it came to what happened, the most common report was theft/larceny.  This is where they happened.  Locations of Thefts/Larcenies Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 1 13 0.077 0.003   2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 13 0.077 0.003   2500 BLOCK FUREEN DR 1 13 0.077 0.003   2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL 1 13 0.077 0.003   3100 BLOCK DOREEN WAY 1 13 0.077 0.003   3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD 1 13 0.077 0.003   3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD 1 13 0.077 0.003   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 13 0.154 0.022   3300 BLOCK NOE WAY 1 13 0.077 0.003   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 13 0.154 0.022   3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 13 0.077 0.003 This is a break-down of the types of thefts/larcenies Variants of Thefts/Larcenies Variable Level UOR_DESC TBUT OR DISP ALL OTHERS < $500   TBUT OR DISP FIREARM   TBUT OR DISP FROM BLDG $500 OR > BUT < $10,000   TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING < $500   TBUT OR DISP SHOPLIFTING $500 OR > BUT < $10,000   THEFT BY DECEPTION-INCL COLD CHECKS U/$10,000   THEFT BY DECEPTION-INCL COLD CHECKS U/$500   THEFT OF PROP LOST/MISLAID/DELIVERED BY MISTAKE FELONY D   THEFT OF PROPERTY LOST/MISLAID/DELIVERED BY MISTAKE MISD Six of the theft/larceny reports happened in private residences spread out through the neighborhood. The other seven of them were in businesses. Assaults Assaults were 16 percent of the reports.  Here is where they were.  Where the Assaults were?   Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   2500 BLOCK MEADOW DR 1 10 0.100 0.021   3000 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   3100 BLOCK DOREEN WAY 1 10 0.100 0.021   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 4 10 0.400 0.754   COMMANDER DR / DEL RIO PL 1 10 0.100 0.021 Other Analyses  Given that car thefts and car break-ins have been a concern over the years, here are those results.    Location of Car Thefts Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK GERALD CT 1 5 0.200 0.375   2300 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD 1 5 0.200 0.375   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 5 0.200 0.375    The Locations of Car Break-Ins Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 1 2 0.500 1.000   3200 BLOCK WELLINGMOOR AVE 1 2 0.500 1.000 The car thefts happened at different times of the month.  However, the two car-break-ins happened on 4/11/2021 and 4/12/2021.  The trend in reports shifted from during the week to the weekend. Crime Reports by Weekday Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Weekday Friday 6 62 0.097 < .001   Monday 7 62 0.113 < .001   Saturday 14 62 0.226 < .001   Sunday 14 62 0.226 < .001   Thursday 11 62 0.177 < .001   Tuesday 9 62 0.145 < .001   Wednesday 1 62 0.016 < .001 Closing Comments Overall, the numbers are improved from the previous month. If we subtracted the missing person reports from Boys and Girls Haven, crime reports dropped by 25 percent. Again, I have my caveat in this database because LMPD had more than 330 reports as being classified as "city at large."   Credit is due to residents having doorbell cameras and locking cars.   Again, thank you for following this blog and I hope that this information is useful to you.  If you haven't joined, I hope you consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood. We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. We soon will be able to take membership payments by Pay Pal.

  

PVA Re-evaluations . . . Yeah.

 Unless you have let your mail just pile up over the last few days, you are likely aware of the Jefferson County Property Valuation Administator's postcard to us homeowners in the past week.    The PVA has done a computer re-evaluation of properties in the Bon Air Neighborhood, and they have raised the values of our properties.  I was not thrilled that they notified us in such an un-private fashion. 

Nevertheless, property values are a mixed bag.  Yes, when we sell our properties, we hope to get top dollar.  Hopefully, we will get our equity and maybe then some from the sale of the house.  

However, higher property values mean higher taxes.  Property taxes are the primary way municipalities and counties get the needed revenue to operate.  While some tax payment is necessary, I think it is important not to pay any more tax than necessary.

This brings me to the re-evaluation.   There can be a big disconnect from what the PVA says your house is valued compared to the real market.  They do a "computer reassessment."   So, if you think that your property is over-valuated, I would encourage you to challenge it.

The method is pretty simple, if you know what houses have sold on your block, you can the sales prices up using Zillow or even the PVA website itself.   Then you set yourself up for an appeal using the PVA's online conference option.   Show the PVA representative what similar houses have sold for on your block, and state the opinion that the PVA's price was unrealistic. 

Many of the blocks in Bon Air are "Tract" homes in that they are similar if not the same models on the same blocks.  The developers were not being original in making for different homes on different blocks. 

I have found the PVA to be reasonable in the past.  They may not agree 100 percent with your opinion, but if you have good documentation of local properties supporting your opinion, the probability is high that you can get your valuation lowered.