Bon Air Long Term Crime Analysis #5: Drug Related Offenses 2004-2020

 

This is the sixth of a long-term study of the police reports in the Bon Air Neighborhood between 2004 and 2020.  It is sifted from https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports.  

All reports are for the 6th District within the boundaries of 

1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The data is in the form of CSV files, easily read by Microsoft Excel.  The CSV files were then loaded in the JASP software, which is an open-source statistical package. 

Reviving this series was motivated by the shooting on May 17,2021 at about 3pm at the McDonalds at the 3300/3400 block of Bardstown Road.  From the local news reports LMPD believes it was targeted but they have no suspects.  My honest opinion is that it was drug-related. 

However, it would seem to be good news in the Bon Air Neighborhood when it comes to drug-related offenses because they have trended down in the neighborhood. 

During the time period, there were 2136 reports.   2013-2014 had the highest numbers with  197 and 251 reports respectively.  Then the numbers went down. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		122		2136		0.057		< .001
		2005		97		2136		0.045		< .001
		2006		100		2136		0.047		< .001
		2007		225		2136		0.105		< .001
		2008		163		2136		0.076		< .001
		2009		113		2136		0.053		< .001
		2010		159		2136		0.074		< .001
		2011		131		2136		0.061		< .001
		2012		131		2136		0.061		< .001
		2013		197		2136		0.092		< .001
		2014		251		2136		0.118		< .001
		2015		121		2136		0.057		< .001
		2016		113		2136		0.053		< .001
		2017		90		2136		0.042		< .001
		2018		72		2136		0.034		< .001
		2019		37		2136		0.017		< .001
		2020		14		2136		0.007		< .001

As been in the other reports, here are some other analyses. 

The peak months for drug activity in the neighborhood are March-April and July-August. It is difficult to say what events correlate with those peaks. 

 It was interesting to me is that the majority of the drug-related offenses were on Wednesdays and Thursdays.  The weekends had the lowest number of reports.

There were numerous types of reports that defeated graphical representation, however, the type of drug offense most common in the report was "buy/possess paraphernalia," which accounted for 35 percent.  Possession of marijuana accounted for 27 percent of the reports.   The remaining 38 percent included trafficking and possession of other substances. For the record, there were eight charges for manufacturing meth and 12 cultivation of marijuana charges. 

Where were the Reports? 

There were so many locations again where LMPD reported drug-related offenses that I decided to report block addresses that had more than 10 reports 

Addresses of more than 10 reports

				Counts		Total		Proportion		p
		2200 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		33		2136		0.015		< .001
		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		25		2136		0.012		< .001
		2200 BLOCK HIKES LN		30		2136		0.014		< .001
		2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN		13		2136		0.006		< .001
		2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT		20		2136		0.009		< .001
		2400 BLOCK MEADOW DR		12		2136		0.006		< .001
		2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL		21		2136		0.010		< .001
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		23		2136		0.011		< .001
		2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE		13		2136		0.006		< .001
		3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN		13		2136		0.006		< .001
		3000 BLOCK RADIANCE RD		10		2136		0.005		< .001
		3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD		14		2136		0.007		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		963		2136		0.451		< .001
		3300 BLOCK NOE WAY		34		2136		0.016		< .001
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		61		2136		0.029		< .001
		3400 BLOCK TERRIER LN		13		2136		0.006		< .001
		3500 BLOCK BROCKTON LN		30		2136		0.014		< .001
		3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		10		2136		0.005		< .001
		3600 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		23		2136		0.011		< .001
		3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR		21		2136		0.010		< .001
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		12		2136		0.006		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD		31		2136		0.015		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / BASHFORD MANOR LN		45		2136		0.021		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / HEATHER LN		41		2136		0.019		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN		45		2136		0.021		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / MEADOW DR		18		2136		0.008		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / PARIS DR		17		2136		0.008		< .001
		DEL RIO PL / MINA TER		11		2136		0.005		< .001
		FURMAN BLVD		10		2136		0.005		< .001
		FURMAN BLVD / TAYLORSVILLE RD		17		2136		0.008		< .001
		GOLDSMITH LN / STRATFORD AVE		12		2136		0.006		< .001
		GREEN MEADOWS DR / HIKES LN		12		2136		0.006		< .001
		HIKES LN / NOE WAY		16		2136		0.007		< .001

What screams from this chart is that the 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had 45.1 percent (963) of the charges followed by the 3400 block of Bardstown Rd with a distant 2.9 percent (61 reports). 

So, what has been happening at Bardstown Rd? 

By year, the trend followed everything else.  It peaked between 2013-2014 and started dropping in 2015. 

Reports by Year at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
YEAR		2004		55		963		0.057		< .001
		2005		58		963		0.060		< .001
		2006		37		963		0.038		< .001
		2007		86		963		0.089		< .001
		2008		91		963		0.094		< .001
		2009		36		963		0.037		< .001
		2010		69		963		0.072		< .001
		2011		56		963		0.058		< .001
		2012		74		963		0.077		< .001
		2013		91		963		0.094		< .001
		2014		145		963		0.151		< .001
		2015		53		963		0.055		< .001
		2016		35		963		0.036		< .001
		2017		49		963		0.051		< .001
		2018		17		963		0.018		< .001
		2019		8		963		0.008		< .001
		2020		3		963		0.003		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Where were the reports being made? 

Premises of Drug Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
PREMISE_TYPE		COMMERCIAL / OFFICE BUILDING		1		961		0.001		< .001
		CONVENIENCE STORE		12		961		0.012		< .001
		DRUG STORE/DR`S OFFICE/HOSPITAL		2		961		0.002		< .001
		HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY		223		961		0.232		< .001
		HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.		356		961		0.370		< .001
		OTHER / UNKNOWN		33		961		0.034		< .001
		OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)		31		961		0.032		< .001
		PARKING LOT / GARAGE		178		961		0.185		< .001
		RESIDENCE / HOME		96		961		0.100		< .001
		RESTAURANT		6		961		0.006		< .001
		SCHOOL - ELEMENTARY / SECONDARY		1		961		0.001		< .001
		SERVICE / GAS STATION		22		961		0.023		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

By far most of the reports were at motels/hotels.  My thought is that the reports dropped when the old Holiday/Quality Inn and the old Travel Lodge were torn down. 

What was happening?  On this, I will be detailed. 

Types of Drug Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
sorted variation		Alcohol Intoxication		10		963		0.010		< .001
		DRUG PARAPHERNALIA - BUY/POSSESS		398		963		0.414		< .001
		DRUG PARAPHERNALIA - DELIVER/MANUFACTURE		1		963		0.001		< .001
		Drinking Alcohol Bev In Public Place		2		963		0.002		< .001
		ILLEGAL POSSESSION OF LEGEND DRUG		1		963		0.001		< .001
		MANUFACTURING METHAMPHETAMINE		5		963		0.005		< .001
		OPEN CONTAINER IN VEHICLE		1		963		0.001		< .001
		POSS A CONT SUB		5		963		0.005		< .001
		POSS COCAINE		56		963		0.058		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB--CODEINE		2		963		0.002		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB--DRUG UNSPECIFIED		83		963		0.086		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB--HEROIN		49		963		0.051		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB--OPIATES		1		963		0.001		< .001
		POSS CONT SUB-COCAINE		7		963		0.007		< .001
		POSS CONTROLLED SUB METHAMPHETAMINE)		14		963		0.015		< .001
		POSS OF CONT SUBSTANCE - (DATE RAPE		2		963		0.002		< .001
		POSS OF MARIJUANA		220		963		0.228		< .001
		POSSESSION OF SYNTHETIC DRUGS		4		963		0.004		< .001
		POSSESSION OF SALVIA		1		963		0.001		< .001
		PRESCRIPTION CONT SUB NOT IN ORIGINAL CONTAINER-1ST OFFENSE		7		963		0.007		< .001
		PUBLIC INTOXICATION CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE (EXCLUDES ALCOHOL)		3		963		0.003		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB WITHIN 1000 YRDS OF SCHOOL		8		963		0.008		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB- HEROIN)		4		963		0.004		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB- OPIATES)		2		963		0.002		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB-COCAINE		14		963		0.015		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB-COCAINE)		7		963		0.007		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB-DRUG UNSPECIF		5		963		0.005		< .001
		TRAF CONT SUB-UNSPECIFIED)		3		963		0.003		< .001
		TRAF IN CONT SUB-1ST OFFENSE		6		963		0.006		< .001
		TRAF IN CONT SUBST METH		7		963		0.007		< .001
		TRAF IN MARIJUANA		33		963		0.034		< .001
		TRAF N CONT SUB 1ST DEGREE 1ST OR > (>= 10 DU DATE RAPE		1		963		0.001		< .001
		TRF CON SUB 2ND DEG 1ST OFN (>= 20 DU DRUG UNSPEC SCH III		1		963		0.001		< .001

So, 41.4 percent were found with some kind of paraphernalia and about 30 percent were found in possession.  I find it interesting that there were five meth lab charges during that time period. 

When I think about the Trend . . .

I think that there is some good news in that the overall trend is down.  Tearing down two of the motels that had been languishing really cut into the numbers.  However, the past year reflects that LMPD has been reducing enforcement and patrolling due to Covid-19.  The pandemic of addiction is still high and there were numerous stories about drug-related deaths. I think that coming out of the pandemic we will see an increase in drug-related charges because it will be safe enough for LMPD to engage in narcotics activity. 

Next time I will look at motor-vehicle-related reports.

Thank you for following this blog and I hope that this information is useful to you. 

If you haven't joined, I hope you consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood. We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. (We are working on getting PayPal)