Bon Air Crime Analysis for April. Numbers were Down Overall.

This is an analysis for April 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

The Overall Numbers

Overall, numbers were down from March.  Including the "other" categories, there were 62 reports during March. 

Crime Reports by Zone
Level								Counts			Total			Proportion				p
Bon Air								50			62			0.806				< .001
Highgate Springs								12			62			0.194				< .001
.
Crime Reports by Zip Code
Variable				Level			Counts			Total			Proportion						p
	40218		47			62			0.758						< .001
	40220		15			62			0.242						< .001
.

The usual zone and zip code had more reports.  It is notable that Bon Air Estates had no reports. 

I have one caveat as to whether there were more reports because LMPD recording reported events very differently.  There were 338 reports for April that were labeled "city at large."  It is possible that there more crime reports, but the following is what is clearly within the observed area. 

Where Were The Most Reports? 

In terms of the location with the most reports, the 2300 block of Goldsmith actually had more reports with 13.  I do tend to downplay what happens there as most of them are "missing persons."  It is of course, Boys and Girls Haven and oppositional kids leave campus to go to Thorntons or they actually do run and every time that happens, the police have to be called.  Otherwise, the 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had the most with eight (8) reports. 

.  The Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 4 13 0.308 0.267   OTHER 3 13 0.231 0.092   THEFT/LARCENY 4 13 0.308 0.267   VANDALISM 1 13 0.077 0.003   WEAPONS 1 13 0.077 0.003 . The Premises of Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p PREMISE_TYPE COMMERCIAL / OFFICE BUILDING 1 13 0.077 0.003   GROCERY / SUPERMARKET 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER / UNKNOWN 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO) 3 13 0.231 0.092   PARKING LOT / GARAGE 2 13 0.154 0.022   RESTAURANT 3 13 0.231 0.092   SERVICE / GAS STATION 2 13 0.154 0.022 .  It is notable that the hotel/motel did not have any reports.  Breakdown of the Types of Crime Reports Here is a breakdown of the types of reports Crime Reports by Type Level Counts Total Proportion p ASSAULT 10 62 0.161 < .001 BURGLARY 2 62 0.032 < .001 FRAUD 1 62 0.016 < .001 MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 5 62 0.081 < .001 OTHER 22 62 0.355 0.030 ROBBERY 1 62 0.016 < .001 THEFT/LARCENY 13 62 0.210 < .001 VANDALISM 5 62 0.081 < .001 VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 2 62 0.032 < .001 WEAPONS 1 62 0.016 < .001 Largest category: Other The "Other" category was the most common report. Here is a breakdown of it.  The "Other" Reports Level Counts Total Proportion p DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 4 22 0.182 0.004 LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE 2 22 0.091 < .001 MISSING PERSONS 15 22 0.682 0.134 PROPERTY LOST OR ABANDONED NON CRIMINAL 1 22 0.045 < .001 Next largest: Larcenies/Thefts Otherwise, when it came to what happened, the most common report was theft/larceny.  This is where they happened.  Locations of Thefts/Larcenies Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 1 13 0.077 0.003   2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 13 0.077 0.003   2500 BLOCK FUREEN DR 1 13 0.077 0.003   2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL 1 13 0.077 0.003   3100 BLOCK DOREEN WAY 1 13 0.077 0.003   3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD 1 13 0.077 0.003   3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD 1 13 0.077 0.003   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 13 0.154 0.022   3300 BLOCK NOE WAY 1 13 0.077 0.003   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 13 0.154 0.022   3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 13 0.077 0.003 This is a break-down of the types of thefts/larcenies Variants of Thefts/Larcenies Variable Level UOR_DESC TBUT OR DISP ALL OTHERS < $500   TBUT OR DISP FIREARM   TBUT OR DISP FROM BLDG $500 OR > BUT < $10,000   TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING < $500   TBUT OR DISP SHOPLIFTING $500 OR > BUT < $10,000   THEFT BY DECEPTION-INCL COLD CHECKS U/$10,000   THEFT BY DECEPTION-INCL COLD CHECKS U/$500   THEFT OF PROP LOST/MISLAID/DELIVERED BY MISTAKE FELONY D   THEFT OF PROPERTY LOST/MISLAID/DELIVERED BY MISTAKE MISD Six of the theft/larceny reports happened in private residences spread out through the neighborhood. The other seven of them were in businesses. Assaults Assaults were 16 percent of the reports.  Here is where they were.  Where the Assaults were?   Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   2500 BLOCK MEADOW DR 1 10 0.100 0.021   3000 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   3100 BLOCK DOREEN WAY 1 10 0.100 0.021   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 4 10 0.400 0.754   COMMANDER DR / DEL RIO PL 1 10 0.100 0.021 Other Analyses  Given that car thefts and car break-ins have been a concern over the years, here are those results.    Location of Car Thefts Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK GERALD CT 1 5 0.200 0.375   2300 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD 1 5 0.200 0.375   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 5 0.200 0.375    The Locations of Car Break-Ins Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 1 2 0.500 1.000   3200 BLOCK WELLINGMOOR AVE 1 2 0.500 1.000 The car thefts happened at different times of the month.  However, the two car-break-ins happened on 4/11/2021 and 4/12/2021.  The trend in reports shifted from during the week to the weekend. Crime Reports by Weekday Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Weekday Friday 6 62 0.097 < .001   Monday 7 62 0.113 < .001   Saturday 14 62 0.226 < .001   Sunday 14 62 0.226 < .001   Thursday 11 62 0.177 < .001   Tuesday 9 62 0.145 < .001   Wednesday 1 62 0.016 < .001 Closing Comments Overall, the numbers are improved from the previous month. If we subtracted the missing person reports from Boys and Girls Haven, crime reports dropped by 25 percent. Again, I have my caveat in this database because LMPD had more than 330 reports as being classified as "city at large."   Credit is due to residents having doorbell cameras and locking cars.   Again, thank you for following this blog and I hope that this information is useful to you.  If you haven't joined, I hope you consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood. We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. We soon will be able to take membership payments by Pay Pal.