Bon Air Crime Analysis for November 2020. Down About 15 Percent from October.

 This is an analysis for November, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

Overall the rate of police reports within the boundaries was down by about 15 percent as there were 58 reports.  There had been 68 in October. 

As usual, the 40218 and Bon Air sections had more. 

Reports by Zip Code
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		46		58		0.793		< .001
		40220		12		58		0.207		< .001

Reports by Zone Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Zone Bon Air 47 58 0.807 < .001   Highgate Springs 11 58 0.193 < .001
The 3300 Block of Bardstown was the location with the most reports Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Level Counts Total Proportion p ASSAULT 3 15 0.200 0.035 FRAUD 3 15 0.200 0.035 OTHER 4 15 0.267 0.118 THEFT/LARCENY 4 15 0.267 0.118 VANDALISM 1 15 0.067 < .001 The highest number of reports were for assaults. Theft and larcenies were not far behind. Types of Reports  Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 14 58 0.241 < .001   BURGLARY 3 58 0.052 < .001   DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS 1 58 0.017 < .001   FRAUD 5 58 0.086 < .001   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 3 58 0.052 < .001   OTHER 11 58 0.190 < .001   THEFT/LARCENY 12 58 0.207 < .001   VANDALISM 4 58 0.069 < .001   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 5 58 0.086 < .001 The assaults were in the following locations:    Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK GERALD CT 1 14 0.071 0.002   2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 2 14 0.143 0.013   2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN 1 14 0.071 0.002   2400 BLOCK MEADOW DR 1 14 0.071 0.002   2700 BLOCK MASEMURE CT 3 14 0.214 0.057   2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 14 0.071 0.002   3100 BLOCK DOREEN WAY 1 14 0.071 0.002   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 3 14 0.214 0.057   3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY 1 14 0.071 0.002 The larcenies were in the following places. Location of Thefts/Larcencies Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 2 12 0.167 0.039   2300 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 12 0.083 0.006   2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE 1 12 0.083 0.006   3000 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 12 0.083 0.006   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 4 12 0.333 0.388   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 12 0.083 0.006   3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 12 0.083 0.006   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 12 0.083 0.006   Car-related thefts have been of interest for a long time. Here are the two tables on these reports. Location of Car Break-ins Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3500 BLOCK HERB LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR 1 5 0.200 0.375   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 5 0.400 1.000   Location of Vehicle Thefts Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2300 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 3 0.333 1.000   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 3 0.333 1.000   3500 BLOCK HERB LN 1 3 0.333 1.000   I have decided to do a few things differently this post.  I looked at the other stuff, and a few things caught my eye.  Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p UOR_DESC DEATH INVESTIGATION 1 12 0.083 0.006   DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE) 1 12 0.083 0.006   DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 2 12 0.167 0.039   HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS 1 12 0.083 0.006   MISSING PERSONS 5 12 0.417 0.774   POSS OF MARIJUANA 1 12 0.083 0.006   RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION 1 12 0.083 0.006   The death investigation/overdose gave me some pause about 3400 Bardstown Rd/2200 Heather Lane. Reports at 2200 block Heather Lane/3400 block Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 2 5 0.400 1.000   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 5 0.200 0.375   OTHER 1 5 0.200 0.375   THEFT/LARCENY 1 5 0.200 0.375 The death investigation (overdose) was at "a storage facility" at the 3400 block of Bardstown. The assaults were at an apartment, and there are several in the vicinity so I cannot tell which one. .   I looked at October numbers: Reports at 3400 Block of Bardstown Rd October 2019 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 1 6 0.167 0.219   BURGLARY 1 6 0.167 0.219   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 6 0.167 0.219   THEFT/LARCENY 1 6 0.167 0.219   VANDALISM 1 6 0.167 0.219   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 1 6 0.167 0.219 Then I looked at September numbers Reports at 3400 Bardstown September 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE OTHER 2 3 0.667 1.000   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 1 3 0.333 1.000 The point I am getting at is that the area that is  2200 Heather/3400 Bardstown is evidencing an increasing trend in criminal activity and possible drug activity. The overdose in the storage facility was likely an overdose on heroin or fentanyl. Drug use/relapse is increasing since Covid-19 has shut down AA groups and NA groups. (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00767/full) From the heroin/fentanyl users I have met in my work, I have learned that they typically have to hustle which includes panhandling and engage in criminal activities to keep scoring fixes. I am surprised that the number of police reports is not higher.   Closing Thoughts Overall, Bon Air still has a low crime rate from earlier in the year.  It is a good thing that many have doorbell cameras.  they do discourage would-be thieves.  The crime watches that exist in Bon Air Estates and Brookfield Manor continue to appear to be effective given that there were no reports in those areas.  I have some concerns that we might see some door pirate reports so I would encourage you to keep on top of your Amazon (and other internet retail) email notices as to when your packages are to arrive and keep your car doors locked.  Have a merry and safe Christmas.

Passing It On: What Seems to be a Good Program for Those Affected by Covid19

Usually,  blogs are supposed to be the original material of the author. I thought I would be like a small town newspaper and reprint a press release.  This came from the city and I do not recall hearing about this in the media, but this seems to be a good program at face value.

If you know someone who is deeply affected financially by the pandemic, feel free to share it. 

Here is the link to see it as a webpage https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/KYLOUISVILLE/bulletins/2ad83f3 Debbie Belt, 574-6587 / 303-6167 Debbie.Belt@louisvilleky.gov City partners with LHOME to launch a free financial navigator service to help Louisville residents impacted by pandemic   LOUISVILLE, KY (November 23, 2020) - In partnership with national  nonprofit organization the Cities for Financial Empowerment Fund (CFE  Fund), Louisville Metro Government announced today the launch of a  free Financial Navigators program to help residents navigate critical  financial issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial Navigators will be available remotely starting Nov. 23 to  provide guidance over the phone to help residents access available  programs and services to manage income disruptions and other financial concerns.  These experts help residents one-on-one to triage  personal financial issues, identify immediate action steps to manage expenses and maximize income, and make referrals to other relevant community resources such as the Eviction Prevention Program, LIHEAP,  Healthy at Home, etc. Louisville Metro Government and Bank On  Louisville will offer these services in partnership with Louisville Housing and Opportunities Micro-Enterprise Community Development Loan Fund, Inc. (LHOME). “Helping residents who are facing financial challenges due to COVID-19  is a critical part of the city’s frontline response and recovery efforts,”  said Mayor Greg Fischer.  “The city is proud to partner with LHOME to  provide this free public service for all of our residents.” Residents can access these free, remote services by completing the online form here or calling (502) 657-6624 to sign up. The navigator will then send a short service agreement and call the client to begin their  personal session. Organizations across Louisville can also refer clients  directly to an expert. Each session will last approximately 30 minutes. After the session, the  Financial Navigator will send a follow-up email outlining next steps and  referrals. “During these uncertain times, it is critical that our residents access vital financial resources,” said Amy Shir, President and CEO of LHOME, a local Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI) and administrator of the Financial Navigator Program. “We encourage  anyone concerned about paying bills, facing possible evictions or utility shut-offs, or with questions about accessing public benefits to call our hotline at (502) 657-6624. Our Financial Navigators are compassionate and trained to listen to callers and provide useful information.” Louisville was one of more than 30 cities and counties across the nation awarded an $80,000 grant by CFE Fund to launch the Financial Navigators initiative, which also includes technical assistance and training. The Financial Navigators initiative is supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies, the Citi Foundation, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and the Wells Fargo Foundation. “Financial distress is a primary part of the COVID-19 crisis, and we’re pleased Mayor Fischer and his team are making this a priority for Louisville residents,” said Jonathan Mintz, President and CEO of the CFE Fund. “The Financial Navigators program will help Louisville residents assess and prioritize their financial concerns and get connected with the right resources.” “The pandemic and resulting economic crises have hit low- and middle -income households, contingent and undocumented workers, and many others very hard,” said James Anderson, Head of Government Innovation at Bloomberg Philanthropies. “We are very pleased to help the CFE Fund expand its high quality and impactful financial empowerment services to reach many more people in more cities.” “Sound financial health is a critical component of addressing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on low-income and diverse communities in the  U.S,” said Sarah Bainton Kahn, VP of Global Philanthropy, JPMorgan Chase & Co. “We are pleased to collaborate with the CFE Fund to help people in Louisville to access the tools and services they need to build resiliency and advance their financial health.” “Communities across the country continue to face significant economic challenges as a result of COVID-19,” said Brandee McHale, Head of Citi Community Investing and Development and President of the Citi Foundation. “To provide residents in Louisville with the vital financial tools and support necessary to navigate the financial impacts of the pandemic, the Citi Foundation is proud to partner once again with the Cities for Financial Empowerment Fund to launch the Financial Navigators program.” “The pandemic has clearly heightened awareness around the financial hardships that so many people were already facing here in Louisville and deep disparities that exist in society,” said Darlene Goins, Head of financial philanthropy with the Wells Fargo Foundation.  “We applaud the CFE Fund for bringing together the city of Louisville, philanthropists, and financial services and other industries to reimagine solutions that can help improve financial stability and resiliency for individuals and families, particularly during this economic crisis.” About Bank On Louisville Launched in 2010, Bank On Louisville is a collaborative partnership between local government, financial institutions and community organizations that work to improve the financial stability of unbanked and underbanked residents in our Louisville community. To date, Bank On Louisville has helped connect more than 47,000 residents to safe and affordable bank accounts and connected more than 26,500 residents to quality financial education.  In 2020, Bank On Louisville is proud to celebrate 10 years of connecting residents to Louisville’s safest accounts. Visit www.bankonlouisville.org for more information. About LHOME LHOME stands for The Louisville Housing Opportunities and Micro Enterprise Community Development Loan Fund, Inc. and is an intentionally inclusive CDFI focused on serving community members and small business owners in Louisville’s low-moderate income neighborhoods. LHOME is committed to combating historic redlining and institutional racism by promoting ownership through accessible, affordable loan products and financial coaching services to its clients, most of whom are people of color living and/or working in West and South Louisville neighborhoods. Visit https://www.lhomeky.org/ or email info@lhomeky.org for more information.  About the Cities for Financial Empowerment Fund (CFE Fund) The CFE Fund supports municipal efforts to improve the financial stability of households by leveraging opportunities unique to local government. By translating cutting edge experience with large scale programs, research, and policy in cities of all sizes, the CFE Fund assists mayors and other local leaders to identify, develop, fund, implement,  and research pilots and programs that help families build assets and make the most of their financial resources. The CFE Fund is currently working in over 100 cities and has disbursed over $43 million to city governments and their partners to support these efforts. For more information, please visit www.cfefund.org or follow us on Twitter at @CFEFund.

Covid and Bon Air: It really appears to be here.

 

I ran into this graph at https://covid-19-in-jefferson-county-ky-lojic.hub.arcgis.com/   

I was wondering about what the Bon Air angle was  in terms of the incidence rates of the Coronavirus around us.  The most I could narrow it down to was zip code. on this map. Bon Air is split between 40218 and 40220.  

It is interesting that out of the population of 31, 658 in the 40218 zip code there have been 1386  cases and that out of the population of 33109 in the 40220 zip code there have been 1128  cases..  In simple math 4.37 percent of the 40218 zip code residents have tested positive and .3.4 percent of the residents in the 40220.  Now, in epidemiological reporting style the site reports it in terms of cases per 100,000 which makes the nine-tenths of a person (3406.9) a little obtuse. 

 Out of the bigger picture in Jefferson County on this particular web-page, there have been 33,989 cases. as of the latest information on this website and that means 7.3965 per cent of the cases in Jefferson County have come from 40218 and 40220. As you can perhaps tell from the map, Covid is not evenly spread throughout the metro. The Bon Air area is not in the highest area, but it is not in the lowest either.  

Covid is very real in the Bon Air Neighborhood. 

  

Bon Air Crime Analysis for October 2020: Reports went up.

 This is an analysis for October,2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 68 reports within the boundaries up from 49 reports from the previous month. which is an increase of 38 percent.  

Here are the breakdowns. 

Reports by Zip Code

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		52		68		0.765		< .001
		40220		16		68		0.235		< .001

The 40218 area as usually had more of the reports.  This of course had to do with most of the crime reports being at the 3300, 3400 

Reports by Zone
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Bon Air		56		68		0.824		< .001
Bon Air Estates		2		68		0.029		< .001
Highgate Springs		10		68		0.147		< .001

The Bon Air area had what could be considered to be a bump and the Bon Air Estates had one incident where two different reports were made.  The Highgate Springs only had one additional report over last month. 

 

Here is what happened overall in terms of reports. 

Types of Police Reports in Bon Air, October 2020
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ASSAULT		15		68		0.221		< .001
BURGLARY		5		68		0.074		< .001
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		2		68		0.029		< .001
FRAUD		3		68		0.044		< .001
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		3		68		0.044		< .001
OTHER		11		68		0.162		< .001
ROBBERY		2		68		0.029		< .001
THEFT/LARCENY		18		68		0.265		< .001
VANDALISM		2		68		0.029		< .001
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		7		68		0.103		< .001

Thefts and Larcencies were the most common reports.  They were spread out among the commercial areas at the edges of the neighborhood. 

The Assaults also were spread out across the neighborhood with the most being at the block of 3300 Bardstown Rd. The shooting that happened at Seneca High on Sunday, October 18, 2020 was called a "First Degree Assault." Speaking of 3300 Bardstown Rd, it was the location with the most reports with 13,  Here is what happened there. 

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd for October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 5 13 0.385 0.581   BURGLARY 1 13 0.077 0.003   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER 2 13 0.154 0.022   THEFT/LARCENY 3 13 0.231 0.092   VANDALISM 1 13 0.077 0.003 There was no particular time or pattern to the different reports at this location, but it is interesting that the majority of the reports were at "residences" . Premise Types of the Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd for October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p PREMISE_TYPE CONVENIENCE STORE 2 13 0.154 0.022   CYBERSPACE 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO) 2 13 0.154 0.022   RESIDENCE / HOME 6 13 0.462 1.000   SERVICE / GAS STATION 1 13 0.077 0.003   SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC) 1 13 0.077 0.003

 Going back to the neighborhood in general, two crimes of concerns are burglaries and car-related thefts. 

Location of the Burglaries in Bon Air, October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3200 BLOCK NORMA LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 5 0.200 0.375   3300 BLOCK NOE WAY 1 5 0.200 0.375   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 5 0.200 0.375   There was no particular pattern to the burglaries.  Location of the Car Break-ins in Bon Air, October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2500 BLOCK WYCKFORD WAY 1 7 0.143 0.125   300 BLOCK CHANEL CT 1 7 0.143 0.125   3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY 1 7 0.143 0.125   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN 1 7 0.143 0.125   One of the curiosity was the "other" category. There were surprisingly few missing person reports.  Types of "Other" Reports in Bon Air October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p UOR_DESC ANY NON CRIMINAL CHARGE NOT COVERED BY THESE CODES 1 11 0.091 0.012   BIAS INVOLVED INCIDENT 1 11 0.091 0.012   DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 2 11 0.182 0.065   HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS 2 11 0.182 0.065   MISSING PERSONS 4 11 0.364 0.549   RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION 1 11 0.091 0.012 I suppose the good news despite the increase was that there was no noticeable pattern of burglaries and car thefts. Much of the crime happened at the periphery of the neighborhood as usual.   With COVID19 persisting, it is a good thing to have doorbell cameras and alarms. LMPD continues to be conservative in responding to calls to minimize exposure.  Deterrents that discourage would-be burglars do work.  Also, it continues to be important to lock car doors as theft of cars and theft from cars are both crimes of opportunity. I would say that the lack of car thefts has to do with JCPS going on NTI overall at this time.