Bon Air Crime Analysis for October 2020: Reports went up.

 This is an analysis for October,2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 68 reports within the boundaries up from 49 reports from the previous month. which is an increase of 38 percent.  

Here are the breakdowns. 

Reports by Zip Code

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		52		68		0.765		< .001
		40220		16		68		0.235		< .001

The 40218 area as usually had more of the reports.  This of course had to do with most of the crime reports being at the 3300, 3400 

Reports by Zone
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Bon Air		56		68		0.824		< .001
Bon Air Estates		2		68		0.029		< .001
Highgate Springs		10		68		0.147		< .001

The Bon Air area had what could be considered to be a bump and the Bon Air Estates had one incident where two different reports were made.  The Highgate Springs only had one additional report over last month. 

 

Here is what happened overall in terms of reports. 

Types of Police Reports in Bon Air, October 2020
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ASSAULT		15		68		0.221		< .001
BURGLARY		5		68		0.074		< .001
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		2		68		0.029		< .001
FRAUD		3		68		0.044		< .001
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		3		68		0.044		< .001
OTHER		11		68		0.162		< .001
ROBBERY		2		68		0.029		< .001
THEFT/LARCENY		18		68		0.265		< .001
VANDALISM		2		68		0.029		< .001
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		7		68		0.103		< .001

Thefts and Larcencies were the most common reports.  They were spread out among the commercial areas at the edges of the neighborhood. 

The Assaults also were spread out across the neighborhood with the most being at the block of 3300 Bardstown Rd. The shooting that happened at Seneca High on Sunday, October 18, 2020 was called a "First Degree Assault." Speaking of 3300 Bardstown Rd, it was the location with the most reports with 13,  Here is what happened there. 

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd for October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 5 13 0.385 0.581   BURGLARY 1 13 0.077 0.003   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER 2 13 0.154 0.022   THEFT/LARCENY 3 13 0.231 0.092   VANDALISM 1 13 0.077 0.003 There was no particular time or pattern to the different reports at this location, but it is interesting that the majority of the reports were at "residences" . Premise Types of the Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd for October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p PREMISE_TYPE CONVENIENCE STORE 2 13 0.154 0.022   CYBERSPACE 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO) 2 13 0.154 0.022   RESIDENCE / HOME 6 13 0.462 1.000   SERVICE / GAS STATION 1 13 0.077 0.003   SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC) 1 13 0.077 0.003

 Going back to the neighborhood in general, two crimes of concerns are burglaries and car-related thefts. 

Location of the Burglaries in Bon Air, October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3200 BLOCK NORMA LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 5 0.200 0.375   3300 BLOCK NOE WAY 1 5 0.200 0.375   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 5 0.200 0.375   There was no particular pattern to the burglaries.  Location of the Car Break-ins in Bon Air, October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2500 BLOCK WYCKFORD WAY 1 7 0.143 0.125   300 BLOCK CHANEL CT 1 7 0.143 0.125   3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY 1 7 0.143 0.125   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN 1 7 0.143 0.125   One of the curiosity was the "other" category. There were surprisingly few missing person reports.  Types of "Other" Reports in Bon Air October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p UOR_DESC ANY NON CRIMINAL CHARGE NOT COVERED BY THESE CODES 1 11 0.091 0.012   BIAS INVOLVED INCIDENT 1 11 0.091 0.012   DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 2 11 0.182 0.065   HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS 2 11 0.182 0.065   MISSING PERSONS 4 11 0.364 0.549   RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION 1 11 0.091 0.012 I suppose the good news despite the increase was that there was no noticeable pattern of burglaries and car thefts. Much of the crime happened at the periphery of the neighborhood as usual.   With COVID19 persisting, it is a good thing to have doorbell cameras and alarms. LMPD continues to be conservative in responding to calls to minimize exposure.  Deterrents that discourage would-be burglars do work.  Also, it continues to be important to lock car doors as theft of cars and theft from cars are both crimes of opportunity. I would say that the lack of car thefts has to do with JCPS going on NTI overall at this time.