Bon Air Crime Analysis for November 2020. Down About 15 Percent from October.

 This is an analysis for November, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

Overall the rate of police reports within the boundaries was down by about 15 percent as there were 58 reports.  There had been 68 in October. 

As usual, the 40218 and Bon Air sections had more. 

Reports by Zip Code
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		46		58		0.793		< .001
		40220		12		58		0.207		< .001

Reports by Zone Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Zone Bon Air 47 58 0.807 < .001   Highgate Springs 11 58 0.193 < .001
The 3300 Block of Bardstown was the location with the most reports Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Level Counts Total Proportion p ASSAULT 3 15 0.200 0.035 FRAUD 3 15 0.200 0.035 OTHER 4 15 0.267 0.118 THEFT/LARCENY 4 15 0.267 0.118 VANDALISM 1 15 0.067 < .001 The highest number of reports were for assaults. Theft and larcenies were not far behind. Types of Reports  Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 14 58 0.241 < .001   BURGLARY 3 58 0.052 < .001   DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS 1 58 0.017 < .001   FRAUD 5 58 0.086 < .001   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 3 58 0.052 < .001   OTHER 11 58 0.190 < .001   THEFT/LARCENY 12 58 0.207 < .001   VANDALISM 4 58 0.069 < .001   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 5 58 0.086 < .001 The assaults were in the following locations:    Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK GERALD CT 1 14 0.071 0.002   2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 2 14 0.143 0.013   2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN 1 14 0.071 0.002   2400 BLOCK MEADOW DR 1 14 0.071 0.002   2700 BLOCK MASEMURE CT 3 14 0.214 0.057   2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 14 0.071 0.002   3100 BLOCK DOREEN WAY 1 14 0.071 0.002   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 3 14 0.214 0.057   3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY 1 14 0.071 0.002 The larcenies were in the following places. Location of Thefts/Larcencies Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 2 12 0.167 0.039   2300 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 12 0.083 0.006   2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE 1 12 0.083 0.006   3000 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 12 0.083 0.006   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 4 12 0.333 0.388   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 12 0.083 0.006   3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 12 0.083 0.006   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 12 0.083 0.006   Car-related thefts have been of interest for a long time. Here are the two tables on these reports. Location of Car Break-ins Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3500 BLOCK HERB LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR 1 5 0.200 0.375   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 5 0.400 1.000   Location of Vehicle Thefts Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2300 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 3 0.333 1.000   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 3 0.333 1.000   3500 BLOCK HERB LN 1 3 0.333 1.000   I have decided to do a few things differently this post.  I looked at the other stuff, and a few things caught my eye.  Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p UOR_DESC DEATH INVESTIGATION 1 12 0.083 0.006   DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE) 1 12 0.083 0.006   DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 2 12 0.167 0.039   HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS 1 12 0.083 0.006   MISSING PERSONS 5 12 0.417 0.774   POSS OF MARIJUANA 1 12 0.083 0.006   RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION 1 12 0.083 0.006   The death investigation/overdose gave me some pause about 3400 Bardstown Rd/2200 Heather Lane. Reports at 2200 block Heather Lane/3400 block Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 2 5 0.400 1.000   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 5 0.200 0.375   OTHER 1 5 0.200 0.375   THEFT/LARCENY 1 5 0.200 0.375 The death investigation (overdose) was at "a storage facility" at the 3400 block of Bardstown. The assaults were at an apartment, and there are several in the vicinity so I cannot tell which one. .   I looked at October numbers: Reports at 3400 Block of Bardstown Rd October 2019 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 1 6 0.167 0.219   BURGLARY 1 6 0.167 0.219   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 6 0.167 0.219   THEFT/LARCENY 1 6 0.167 0.219   VANDALISM 1 6 0.167 0.219   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 1 6 0.167 0.219 Then I looked at September numbers Reports at 3400 Bardstown September 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE OTHER 2 3 0.667 1.000   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 1 3 0.333 1.000 The point I am getting at is that the area that is  2200 Heather/3400 Bardstown is evidencing an increasing trend in criminal activity and possible drug activity. The overdose in the storage facility was likely an overdose on heroin or fentanyl. Drug use/relapse is increasing since Covid-19 has shut down AA groups and NA groups. (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00767/full) From the heroin/fentanyl users I have met in my work, I have learned that they typically have to hustle which includes panhandling and engage in criminal activities to keep scoring fixes. I am surprised that the number of police reports is not higher.   Closing Thoughts Overall, Bon Air still has a low crime rate from earlier in the year.  It is a good thing that many have doorbell cameras.  they do discourage would-be thieves.  The crime watches that exist in Bon Air Estates and Brookfield Manor continue to appear to be effective given that there were no reports in those areas.  I have some concerns that we might see some door pirate reports so I would encourage you to keep on top of your Amazon (and other internet retail) email notices as to when your packages are to arrive and keep your car doors locked.  Have a merry and safe Christmas.