Bon Air Crime Analysis for October 2020: Reports went up.

 This is an analysis for October,2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 68 reports within the boundaries up from 49 reports from the previous month. which is an increase of 38 percent.  

Here are the breakdowns. 

Reports by Zip Code

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		52		68		0.765		< .001
		40220		16		68		0.235		< .001

The 40218 area as usually had more of the reports.  This of course had to do with most of the crime reports being at the 3300, 3400 

Reports by Zone
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Bon Air		56		68		0.824		< .001
Bon Air Estates		2		68		0.029		< .001
Highgate Springs		10		68		0.147		< .001

The Bon Air area had what could be considered to be a bump and the Bon Air Estates had one incident where two different reports were made.  The Highgate Springs only had one additional report over last month. 

 

Here is what happened overall in terms of reports. 

Types of Police Reports in Bon Air, October 2020
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ASSAULT		15		68		0.221		< .001
BURGLARY		5		68		0.074		< .001
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		2		68		0.029		< .001
FRAUD		3		68		0.044		< .001
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		3		68		0.044		< .001
OTHER		11		68		0.162		< .001
ROBBERY		2		68		0.029		< .001
THEFT/LARCENY		18		68		0.265		< .001
VANDALISM		2		68		0.029		< .001
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		7		68		0.103		< .001

Thefts and Larcencies were the most common reports.  They were spread out among the commercial areas at the edges of the neighborhood. 

The Assaults also were spread out across the neighborhood with the most being at the block of 3300 Bardstown Rd. The shooting that happened at Seneca High on Sunday, October 18, 2020 was called a "First Degree Assault." Speaking of 3300 Bardstown Rd, it was the location with the most reports with 13,  Here is what happened there. 

Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd for October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 5 13 0.385 0.581   BURGLARY 1 13 0.077 0.003   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER 2 13 0.154 0.022   THEFT/LARCENY 3 13 0.231 0.092   VANDALISM 1 13 0.077 0.003 There was no particular time or pattern to the different reports at this location, but it is interesting that the majority of the reports were at "residences" . Premise Types of the Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd for October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p PREMISE_TYPE CONVENIENCE STORE 2 13 0.154 0.022   CYBERSPACE 1 13 0.077 0.003   OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO) 2 13 0.154 0.022   RESIDENCE / HOME 6 13 0.462 1.000   SERVICE / GAS STATION 1 13 0.077 0.003   SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC) 1 13 0.077 0.003

 Going back to the neighborhood in general, two crimes of concerns are burglaries and car-related thefts. 

Location of the Burglaries in Bon Air, October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3200 BLOCK NORMA LN 1 5 0.200 0.375   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 5 0.200 0.375   3300 BLOCK NOE WAY 1 5 0.200 0.375   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 5 0.200 0.375   There was no particular pattern to the burglaries.  Location of the Car Break-ins in Bon Air, October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2500 BLOCK WYCKFORD WAY 1 7 0.143 0.125   300 BLOCK CHANEL CT 1 7 0.143 0.125   3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY 1 7 0.143 0.125   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 7 0.143 0.125   BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN 1 7 0.143 0.125   One of the curiosity was the "other" category. There were surprisingly few missing person reports.  Types of "Other" Reports in Bon Air October 2020 Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p UOR_DESC ANY NON CRIMINAL CHARGE NOT COVERED BY THESE CODES 1 11 0.091 0.012   BIAS INVOLVED INCIDENT 1 11 0.091 0.012   DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 2 11 0.182 0.065   HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS 2 11 0.182 0.065   MISSING PERSONS 4 11 0.364 0.549   RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION 1 11 0.091 0.012 I suppose the good news despite the increase was that there was no noticeable pattern of burglaries and car thefts. Much of the crime happened at the periphery of the neighborhood as usual.   With COVID19 persisting, it is a good thing to have doorbell cameras and alarms. LMPD continues to be conservative in responding to calls to minimize exposure.  Deterrents that discourage would-be burglars do work.  Also, it continues to be important to lock car doors as theft of cars and theft from cars are both crimes of opportunity. I would say that the lack of car thefts has to do with JCPS going on NTI overall at this time.

 

Rezoning at 3042 Hikes Lane. At Least It is Better Than another Storage Locker Facility or Car Wash

 I must applaud Susan Thurston Bennett and her leadership in the efforts to fight the rezoning of the St Barnabas property for redevelopment into upscale apartments.  That being said, this blog post is my opinion and not that of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association, which voted not to take an official stand one way or the other.   Let me go further with two stories.

My grandparents and parents were residents of Boynton Beach Florida for the better part of four decades. When my grandparents became snowbirds Boynton Beach was pretty much a small town in Palm Beach County squeezed between the coast and Interstate 95.  When my dad passed and my mother made good on her word to go back to four seasons, it had sprawled all the way out to the Florida Turnpike.  I can only imagine what it is today.  But specifically, I want to talk about the northwest corner of the intersection of "Federal Highway and Woolbright Road." From 1977 through 2003 I remember it being a Lumberyard. 

When I came back in 2008 it had been converted into densely packed condos. 

I was shocked at such high-density development because I was used to Boynton Beach having more trees and this really ruined the asethetic.  But my father had told me that real estate developers controlled the politics of Palm Beach County, and this development made sense to me in light of that. 

Bringing it back to Hikes Point.  I had wished I still had the aerial photograph of Hikes Lane circa 1940.  It was a rural road.  The peach orchard (where Orchard Manor apartments sit) and farmland had been converted into post-war suburbia. The Arch Diocese of Louisville appeared to be aggressive in its mission efforts to have three parishes and schools close to each other: St Pius on Goldsmith, St Barnabas on Hikes Lane and St. Martha on Klondike Lane.  I was quite impressed with the quality of the St Barnabas facility when I had been in there and been there for the picnics.  To a guy not from Louisville, that really speaks volumes to the presence of the Catholic Church in this area of Louisville. 

I can only theorize what the numbers said to the Diocese, but it appeared to be a good decision to merge St Barnabas and St Pius into John Paul and move ministry operations to Goldsmith.  Furthermore, it appeared to be good stewardship to part with the St Barnabas property of 9.63 acres. 

LDG, a real estate developer has seen-value in redeveloping the St Barnabas site at 3042 Hikes Lane. Their plan is "Go big or go home."  It is going to be a four-story property with a four-story parking garage. It requires a rezoning from single-family housing to R-8A (58 housing units per acre).  This is where it is drawing opposition.  

Here is a link to the petition: Stop DRASTIC Rezoning.   There are some big negatives to this idea like it will stick out like a sore thumb.  It could add a lot of stress on the road, cause traffic jams, and affect the drainage in the area. 

On the other hand,, it is an upscale apartment complex, and neither a storage locker facility nor a car wash, two kinds of establishments that have popped up over the past several years in abundance. I would rather have had such an upscale apartment complex at 3304 Bardstown Rd or at 2200 Goldsmith Lane, but I am not sure the people of the Bashford Manor neighborhood would agree. 

My gut is that it will pass the Planning Commission.  Actually, the research is in its favor. This is not some, "alternative lifestyle" club that tried to set up shop in Buechel nor a Methadone clinic that tried to take over the old post office in Bardstown Square.  This is a legitimate, local (and national) developer with clout and the odds are for it to pass. This would bring some population density back to the area (which spread out with urban sprawl) and could help create development momentum in the neighborhood. 

On the other hand, if my gut is wrong, I would challenge the community to come forward and organize to redevelop the property in a way that is going to lead to a momentum of healthy redevelopment in the area. 

I have been pushing an Arts Development strategy in the Bon Air neighborhood. It is somewhat of a smart development in which we are trying to shape what happens.  It aims to link Bon Air with the robust artistic community in the Louisville area.  The current project is to build a stage in Farnsley Park, which is progressing. I would think such conversion of the property into such artistic use would be fantastic. 

 Again, kudos to Susan Thurston Bennett, she is definitely approaching this with passion. 

Bon Air Crime Analysis for September 2020 Up Some from August

This is an analysis for September,2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 49 total reports within the boundaries, but sis of them were runaways from 2300 Goldsmith Lane.  Removing those meant 43 relevant police reports.  This was a 26 percent over reports from August. 

As usual, the 40218 section had more reports with almost 70 percent.

Reports by Zip Code
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
40218		30		43		0.698		0.014
40220		13		43		0.302		0.014

The reports by zone reflected the zip codes. 

Reports by Zone
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Neighborhood		Bon Air		34		43		0.791		< .001
		Highgate Springs		9		43		0.209		< .001

The following table in a slightly different format shows the reports by blocks. 

The following table ranks the most occurring crime reports. 

Type of Crime Reports
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		10		43		0.233		< .001
		BURGLARY		4		43		0.093		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		1		43		0.023		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		2		43		0.047		< .001
		OTHER		6		43		0.140		< .001
		ROBBERY		1		43		0.023		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		5		43		0.116		< .001
		VANDALISM		2		43		0.047		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		10		43		0.233		< .001
		WEAPONS		2		43		0.047		< .001

The assaults happened in the following locations:

Location of Assaults Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL 2 10 0.200 0.109   2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 3 10 0.300 0.344   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 10 0.200 0.109   3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR 1 10 0.100 0.021   3700 BLOCK TAYLORSVILLE RD 1 10 0.100 0.021    The following were where the Car break-ins were:  Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   300 BLOCK CHANEL CT 1 10 0.100 0.021   3200 BLOCK AINSLIE WAY 1 10 0.100 0.021   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 10 0.100 0.021   3500 BLOCK TERRIER LN 2 10 0.200 0.109   3600 BLOCK ARGYLE LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY 1 10 0.100 0.021   BARDSTOWN RD / I 264 RAMP 2 10 0.200 0.109 Here was when they happened: Dates of Car Break-Ins Variable Level Counts  Total  Proportion  p DATE_REPORTED  9/11/2020 12:17  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/12/2020 3:26 1 10 0.100 0.021    9/12/2020 7:38 2 10 0.200 0.109    9/15/2020 12:10  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/17/2020 13:46  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/17/2020 16:12  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/17/2020 5:40 1 10 0.100 0.021    9/21/2020 15:22  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/23/2020 2:02 1 10 0.100 0.021  I will note that two reports on 9/17/2020 were in two different places (2200 Hikes and 3400 Ainslie Way).  There did not appear to be a hard and fast pattern.  Going back to locations, the following are the crime reports as to what happened at 2200 Hikes Lane: Crime reports at 2200 Hikes Lane Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 1 5 0.200 0.375   BURGLARY 1 5 0.200 0.375   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 5 0.200 0.375   VANDALISM 1 5 0.200 0.375   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 1 5 0.200 0.375  Then at 2900 Hikes Lane:   Crime Reports at 2900 Hikes Lane Level Counts Total Proportion ASSAULT 3 5 0.600 BURGLARY 2 5 0.400 Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.  Then at 3300 Bardstown Rd:  Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 2 4 0.500 1.000   OTHER 1 4 0.250 0.625   ROBBERY 1 4 0.250 0.625    Then at 3500 Terrier Lane Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE THEFT/LARCENY 2 4 0.500 1.000   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 2 4 0.500 1.000 Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.  These four reports were all at the same time.   Comments: I have had my questions about the increase of car break-ins.  They were spread out through the neighborhood and happened at different times.  They continued to be seen as crimes of opportunity.  If you leave your car unlocked and you leave stuff in it, it increases your likelihood of being a victim.  I am thankful that it was not worse.  The homeless have persisted in the neighborhood panhandling. As noted in a previous post, we have had a homeless individual sleeping in front of a neighborhood business.  They appeared to have found it to be economically sufficient given that COVID-19 has thinned out downtown traffic and the lockdown measures have further discouraged the from. With many homeless individuals there is a prevalence of trespassing offenses, and we have not seen that.  I also think that blockwatches are of continued effectiveness. There were no reports in Brookhaven manor and Bon Air Estates.  The efforts on Lisbon are also of lasting effectiveness.  I hope that you continue to lock your cars and make sure your Ring or other doorbell  cameras are in operation.  Security devices discourage deviancy.   Last, but not least, if you have not become a member of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association, we could really use your support.  Membership is $20.00 per household per year.  You can mail your membership fee to  BANA  PO Box 34262  Louisville KY 40201.  Thanks.