Bon Air Crime Analysis for September 2020 Up Some from August

This is an analysis for September,2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 49 total reports within the boundaries, but sis of them were runaways from 2300 Goldsmith Lane.  Removing those meant 43 relevant police reports.  This was a 26 percent over reports from August. 

As usual, the 40218 section had more reports with almost 70 percent.

Reports by Zip Code
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
40218		30		43		0.698		0.014
40220		13		43		0.302		0.014

The reports by zone reflected the zip codes. 

Reports by Zone
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Neighborhood		Bon Air		34		43		0.791		< .001
		Highgate Springs		9		43		0.209		< .001

The following table in a slightly different format shows the reports by blocks. 

The following table ranks the most occurring crime reports. 

Type of Crime Reports
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		10		43		0.233		< .001
		BURGLARY		4		43		0.093		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		1		43		0.023		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		2		43		0.047		< .001
		OTHER		6		43		0.140		< .001
		ROBBERY		1		43		0.023		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		5		43		0.116		< .001
		VANDALISM		2		43		0.047		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		10		43		0.233		< .001
		WEAPONS		2		43		0.047		< .001

The assaults happened in the following locations:

Location of Assaults Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL 2 10 0.200 0.109   2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 3 10 0.300 0.344   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 10 0.200 0.109   3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR 1 10 0.100 0.021   3700 BLOCK TAYLORSVILLE RD 1 10 0.100 0.021    The following were where the Car break-ins were:  Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   300 BLOCK CHANEL CT 1 10 0.100 0.021   3200 BLOCK AINSLIE WAY 1 10 0.100 0.021   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 10 0.100 0.021   3500 BLOCK TERRIER LN 2 10 0.200 0.109   3600 BLOCK ARGYLE LN 1 10 0.100 0.021   3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY 1 10 0.100 0.021   BARDSTOWN RD / I 264 RAMP 2 10 0.200 0.109 Here was when they happened: Dates of Car Break-Ins Variable Level Counts  Total  Proportion  p DATE_REPORTED  9/11/2020 12:17  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/12/2020 3:26 1 10 0.100 0.021    9/12/2020 7:38 2 10 0.200 0.109    9/15/2020 12:10  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/17/2020 13:46  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/17/2020 16:12  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/17/2020 5:40 1 10 0.100 0.021    9/21/2020 15:22  1 10 0.100 0.021    9/23/2020 2:02 1 10 0.100 0.021  I will note that two reports on 9/17/2020 were in two different places (2200 Hikes and 3400 Ainslie Way).  There did not appear to be a hard and fast pattern.  Going back to locations, the following are the crime reports as to what happened at 2200 Hikes Lane: Crime reports at 2200 Hikes Lane Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 1 5 0.200 0.375   BURGLARY 1 5 0.200 0.375   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 1 5 0.200 0.375   VANDALISM 1 5 0.200 0.375   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 1 5 0.200 0.375  Then at 2900 Hikes Lane:   Crime Reports at 2900 Hikes Lane Level Counts Total Proportion ASSAULT 3 5 0.600 BURGLARY 2 5 0.400 Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.  Then at 3300 Bardstown Rd:  Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 2 4 0.500 1.000   OTHER 1 4 0.250 0.625   ROBBERY 1 4 0.250 0.625    Then at 3500 Terrier Lane Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE THEFT/LARCENY 2 4 0.500 1.000   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 2 4 0.500 1.000 Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.  These four reports were all at the same time.   Comments: I have had my questions about the increase of car break-ins.  They were spread out through the neighborhood and happened at different times.  They continued to be seen as crimes of opportunity.  If you leave your car unlocked and you leave stuff in it, it increases your likelihood of being a victim.  I am thankful that it was not worse.  The homeless have persisted in the neighborhood panhandling. As noted in a previous post, we have had a homeless individual sleeping in front of a neighborhood business.  They appeared to have found it to be economically sufficient given that COVID-19 has thinned out downtown traffic and the lockdown measures have further discouraged the from. With many homeless individuals there is a prevalence of trespassing offenses, and we have not seen that.  I also think that blockwatches are of continued effectiveness. There were no reports in Brookhaven manor and Bon Air Estates.  The efforts on Lisbon are also of lasting effectiveness.  I hope that you continue to lock your cars and make sure your Ring or other doorbell  cameras are in operation.  Security devices discourage deviancy.   Last, but not least, if you have not become a member of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association, we could really use your support.  Membership is $20.00 per household per year.  You can mail your membership fee to  BANA  PO Box 34262  Louisville KY 40201.  Thanks.