Sunday, December 12, 2021

Bon Air Neighborhood Crime Analysis: Police Reports rose another 19 percent

 

This is an analysis for November 2021 based on open data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   The limits of this analysis also include that it is limited to what LMPD actually puts on this report. 

There were 106 reports, which was a 19.10 percent from October and 55 percent increase from September. 

I will run through the usual analyses and compare them with last month.

As usual, the "Bon Air" and the 40218 zones had the most reports of the respective. categories.  
 

Reports by Zip Code

 

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

 

Zip Code

40218

76

105

0.724

< .001

 

 

40220

29

105

0.276

< .001

 

 

 

 

Reports by Zone

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Zone

Bon Air

75

105

0.714

< .001

 

Bon Air Estates

3

105

0.029

< .001

 

Highgate Springs

27

105

0.257

< .001


At face value, the Highgate Springs had an approximately 30 percent increase of 10 more reports than in September.  
This is more for grins and giggles, but Thursday had the most reports of any of the weekdays. 


Reports by Weekday

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Weekday

Friday

7

105

0.067

< .001

 

Monday

14

105

0.133

< .001

 

Saturday

13

105

0.124

< .001

 

Sunday

11

105

0.105

< .001

 

Thursday

24

105

0.229

< .001

 

Tuesday

15

105

0.143

< .001

 

Wednesday

21

105

0.200

< .001




It is interesting that the reports were the lowest on Friday and then progressed up to Thursday. 

Assaults

Assault was the largest category. 

Reports by Type

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

ASSAULT

29

105

0.276

< .001

BURGLARY

8

105

0.076

< .001

DISTURBING THE PEACE

2

105

0.019

< .001

DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS

1

105

0.010

< .001

FRAUD

2

105

0.019

< .001

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

5

105

0.048

< .001

OTHER

19

105

0.181

< .001

ROBBERY

3

105

0.029

< .001

SEX CRIMES

1

105

0.010

< .001

THEFT/LARCENY

14

105

0.133

< .001

VANDALISM

7

105

0.067

< .001

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

14

105

0.133

< .001


They were 18 such assaults reported in October, which is a 61 percent increase. 

The assaults happened in the following places: 

Locations of Assaults

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Location

200 BLOCK FLANDERS CT

4

29

0.138

< .001

 

2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN

3

29

0.103

< .001

 

2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

2300 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

2700 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

2900 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

3000 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

3100 BLOCK COMMANDER DR

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

5

29

0.172

< .001

 

3300 BLOCK NOE WAY

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

3500 BLOCK LISBON LN

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY

1

29

0.034

< .001

 

3700 BLOCK MINA TER

4

29

0.138

< .001

 

BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN

4

29

0.138

< .001

The Flanders Court location is part of a set of condos.  Three of those reports were recorded to have been at the same time on 11/27/2021.  

The "Other" Stuff

As usual, I like to expand on that big, "Other" category.

Most of it was the usual missing persons reports at 2300 Goldsmith Lane. 

Other Reports

Variable

Level

Counts

CRIME_TYPE

DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT

4

 

INJURED PERSON REQUIRING POLICE REPORT

1

 

LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANC

2

 

MISSING PERSONS

12

  

Location of Other Reports

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Location

2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN

9

19

0.474

1.000

 

2600 BLOCK MASEMURE CT

1

19

0.053

< .001

 

2800 BLOCK SHANNON DR

1

19

0.053

< .001

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

3

19

0.158

0.004

Moving to the normal concerns of homeowners, burglaries and car thefts.

Burglaries

There was a slight increase in burglaries.  There had been six reported in October.

 Location of Burglaries

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Location

200 BLOCK FLANDERS CT

1

8

0.125

0.070

 

2200 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN

1

8

0.125

0.070

 

2300 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

8

0.125

0.070

 

3000 BLOCK WEDGEWOOD WAY

1

8

0.125

0.070

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

2

8

0.250

0.289

 

3600 BLOCK ROSEMONT CT

1

8

0.125

0.070

 

3700 BLOCK MINA TER

1

8

0.125

0.070

It is significant that this is the second, consecutive month that the 3000 Block of Wedgewood Way has had a burglary.   It is difficult to say if there is a pattern in the neighborhood other than two were reported on Tuesday and two were reported on Thursday. 

Auto Related Thefts

Last month I had combined the car thefts and break-ins table-wise, but there were five thefts and seven break-ins in October.  This month I had divided them. 

Location of Car Thefts

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Location

2800 BLOCK SHANNON DR

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

3300 BLOCK ALLISON WAY

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

3500 BLOCK TERRIER LN

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR

1

5

0.200

0.375

The thefts were spread out throughout the neighborhood. 

The car break-ins doubled in number. There were seven in October.

Location of Car Break-Ins  

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

100 BLOCK ALGIERS CT

1

14

0.071

2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN

1

14

0.071

2300 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

14

0.071

2900 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

14

0.071

3000 BLOCK NADINA DR

1

14

0.071

3300 BLOCK HEATHER LN

1

14

0.071

3400 BLOCK TERRIER LN

1

14

0.071

3600 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

1

14

0.071

3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR

1

14

0.071

3600 BLOCK KELLY WAY

1

14

0.071

3600 BLOCK KINGS HWY

2

14

0.143

BARDSTOWN RD / I 264 RAMP

2

14

0.143


I would say that it is significant that some places in Highgate Springs that have been quiet over the years have seen reports that include Nadina, Kelly Way, and Kings Highway.  Thanksgiving Day was a date when there were car three break-ins, which the Nadia and one of the Kings Highway reports were made. 

Thefts/Larcenies

This was an after-thought, but when I went back and looked at the thefts, I became concerned. 

Here are the different types of thefts/larcencie

Types of Thefts and Larcencies

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

RECEIVING STOLEN PROPERTY $1,000 < $10,000

2

14

0.143

0.013

 

TBUT OR DISP ALL OTHERS

2

14

0.143

0.013

 

TBUT OR DISP CONTROLLED SUB < $10,000

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

TBUT OR DISP FIREARM

3

14

0.214

0.057

 

TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

TBUT OR DISP SHOPLIFTING

2

14

0.143

0.013

 

THEFT BY DECEPTION INCLUDING COLD CHECKS $1,000 < $10,000

3

14

0.214

0.057

 

Here were where the thefts were. 


Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Location

2200 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

2300 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

2800 BLOCK SHANNON DR

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

2900 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

3000 BLOCK NADINA DR

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

3

14

0.214

0.057

 

3300 BLOCK STRATFORD AVE

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

3500 BLOCK RAMONA AVE

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

3600 BLOCK KELLY WAY

1

14

0.071

0.002

 

BARDSTOWN RD / I 264 RAMP

1

14

0.071

0.002


Three of the thefts were firearm thefts. Two of the firearm thefts were from residences in the Highgate Springs zone.  A stolen gun is likely to be used in a crime.  If you have a gun, please keep it in a gun safe. 

Usual Focus on 3300 Bardstown Road

As usual, the block of 3300 Bardstown Rd had the most reports, but it was actually down from last month by three reports.


Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT - 4TH DEGREE (DOMESTIC VIOLENCE) MINOR INJURY

2

16

0.125

0.004

 

ASSAULT - 4TH DEGREE (DOMESTIC VIOLENCE) NO VISIBLE INJURY

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

ASSAULT - 4TH DEGREE (NO VISIBLE INJURY)

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

BURGLARY - 1ST DEGREE

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

BURGLARY - 2ND DEGREE

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

BURGLARY - 3RD DEGREE

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

INJURED PERSON REQUIRING POLICE REPORT

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

RECEIVING STOLEN PROPERTY $1,000 < $10,000

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

ROBBERY - 1ST DEGREE

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

TBUT OR DISP AUTO $1,000 < $10,000

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

THEFT BY DECEPTION INCLUDING COLD CHECKS $1,000 < $10,000

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

WANTON ENDANGERMENT-1ST DEGREE

1

16

0.063

< .001

Here is the location of the reports. 

Premises of the Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CITY

HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY

2

16

0.125

0.004

 

HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.

5

16

0.313

0.210

 

OTHER / UNKNOWN

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)

5

16

0.313

0.210

 

PARKING LOT / GARAGE

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

RENTAL / STORAGE FACILITY

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

RESIDENCE / HOME

1

16

0.063

< .001

The hotel/motel had two of the assaults, a burglary, and a motor vehicle theft.   It too was up by six reports. 

After Note: 

The one sex crime was a rape reported in a commercial, office building at 3700 Bardstown Rd. 

Concluding Thoughts

As in the headline, there was another increase in overall reports and it is a second consecutive month in increase. There were a number of increases across the board in assaults, burglaries, car break-ins, and thefts. Highgate Springs had some very significant reports in the categories of assaults and thefts.  The crime is increasing within the neighborhood.

Please lock your car and consider a review of your security practices.  The security alarms and monitoring options are increasing and the prices for these are becoming more affordable.  Neighborhood watches should be considered more strongly if the trend continues.

If you have not joined, please consider joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association  We seek to be an effective advocate for the neighborhood and are excited that our project of the Farnsley Park stage coming to fruition in 2022, but our work is far from done.  We would love your interest and involvement. 


We have been meeting in person again.  We meet on the second Monday of the month.  Our next meeting will be in the community room of the Bon Air Library on December 13, 2021, at 6:30pm. 

The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join. 

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here. 







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