Bon Air Crime Analysis for October 2021. Police Reports up 31 Percent!

 

This is an analysis for September 2021 based on open data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.

As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   The limits of this analysis also include that it is limited to what LMPD actually puts on this report. 

There were 89 reports, which is an increase of 30.88 percent over the 68 reports in September. 

I will run through the usual analyses and compare them with last month.

As usual, the 40218 and Bon Air zones had the higher numbers. 

Reports by Zip Code
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Zip Code		40218		70		89		0.787		< .001
		40220		19		89		0.213		< .001
Reports by Zone Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Zone Bon Air 71 89 0.798 < .001   Bon Air Estates 1 89 0.011 < .001   Highgate Springs 17 89 0.191 < .001   In September, the 40218 zip code had 48 reports while the 40220 area had 20.  Thus 40218 had 22 more reports while the 40218 are actually decreased by one. However, when the cake is cut by neighborhood association zone, Highgate Springs actually had 10 more reports in October and Bon Air only had three more reports. Reports by Weekday Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Weekday Friday 11 89 0.124 < .001   Monday 10 89 0.112 < .001   Saturday 9 89 0.101 < .001   Sunday 15 89 0.169 < .001   Thursday 18 89 0.202 < .001   Tuesday 12 89 0.135 < .001   Wednesday 14 89 0.157 < .001 When evaluating by weekday, Mondays, Tuesdays, and Fridays saw more reports than September. Mondays in October had fewer reports.   Analysis by Crime Types Reports by Crime Type     Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Crime Type ASSAULT 18 89 0.202 < .001     BURGLARY 6 89 0.067 < .001     DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS 3 89 0.034 < .001     FRAUD 6 89 0.067 < .001     MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 5 89 0.056 < .001     OTHER 15 89 0.169 < .001     ROBBERY 1 89 0.011 < .001     SEX CRIMES 1 89 0.011 < .001     THEFT/LARCENY 14 89 0.157 < .001     VANDALISM 13 89 0.146 < .001     VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 7 89 0.079 < .001      Compared to September, there were actually fewer assaults (23 as opposed to 18). There were increases in burglaries, alcohol/drug violations, fraud, motor vehicle theft, other, theft/larceny, vandalism, and vehicle break-in/theft.   There were no sex crime reports in September.  The "Other" Reports The Other Reports Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Specific Offense DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE) 3 15 0.200 0.035   DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 3 15 0.200 0.035   LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE 1 15 0.067 < .001   MISSING PERSONS 7 15 0.467 1.000   SUICIDE 1 15 0.067 < .001   There were a few more missing persons and there was one more drug overdose report over that in September.   As usual, the missing persons are kids that leave Boys and Girls Haven.  It is here where it can be stated that the shooting death in Farnsley Park on 10/28/2021 that made the media was a suicide.     Focus on 3300 Bardstown Rd.  Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Crime Type ASSAULT 5 19 0.263 0.064   FRAUD 1 19 0.053 < .001   MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 2 19 0.105 < .001   OTHER 1 19 0.053 < .001   ROBBERY 1 19 0.053 < .001   THEFT/LARCENY 5 19 0.263 0.064   VANDALISM 2 19 0.105 < .001   VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 2 19 0.105 < .001    There were five more reports in October than September. There were two car thefts, and five larcenies.  There were neither of these report types in September.  Locations of different types of reports.    Location of Assaults Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Block Address 200 BLOCK FLANDERS CT 3 18 0.167 0.008   2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 1 18 0.056 < .001   2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN 1 18 0.056 < .001   2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL 2 18 0.111 0.001   2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 18 0.056 < .001   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 5 18 0.278 0.096   3300 BLOCK TERRIER LN 2 18 0.111 0.001   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 18 0.056 < .001   3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR 1 18 0.056 < .001   BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN 1 18 0.056 < .001   Location of Burglaries Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Block Address 2200 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN 2 6 0.333 0.687   2900 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN 1 6 0.167 0.219   2900 BLOCK NOE CT 1 6 0.167 0.219   3000 BLOCK WEDGEWOOD WAY 1 6 0.167 0.219   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 6 0.167 0.219   Location of Car Thefts and Break-ins Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Block Address 2800 BLOCK SHEILA DR 1 12 0.083 0.006   2900 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN 1 12 0.083 0.006   3100 BLOCK COMMANDER DR 1 12 0.083 0.006   3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD 1 12 0.083 0.006   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 4 12 0.333 0.388   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 3 12 0.250 0.146   3500 BLOCK MEDFORD CT 1 12 0.083 0.006  There were a few addresses that had assaults again.  The locations of the car-related crimes were different from last month, which may suggest that these could be on the rise.   The burglaries were a little more on the interior of the neighborhood. In September, they were all on the perimeter of the neighborhood.  Overall, it is concerning that the number of reports went up because more reports of different kinds were spread out in different locations.  Concluding thoughts I am hoping that these higher numbers are not a pattern.  It is important to keep cars locked.  Also, if you see something, say something.    After I was working with adolescents who frequently used the word "snitch," I came to see the "word" differently.  There was some claim of victimhood by a perpetrator and that the "snitch" was guilty of betrayal.  I came to see this as emotional intimidation. I will say that people do struggle with speaking up because of this, but if you and I do not show courage when we see things it will only get worse.  Otherwise, the Bon Air Neighborhood Association definitely could use your support. We seek to be an effective advocate for the neighborhood and are excited that our product of the Farnsley Park stage is coming to fruition, but our work is far from done.  We would love your interest and involvement.  We have begun to meet in person again.  We meet on the second Monday of the month.  Our next meeting will be in the community room of the Bon Air Library on December 13, 2021, at 6:30pm.  The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join.  You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here.  https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8