The Bon Air Observer

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Bon Air Crime Analysis for August 2021 Up 33 percent in total reports from July

This is an analysis for August 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package. This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.

As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood. The limits of this analysis also include that it is limited to what LMPD actually puts on this report.

There were 68 total reports, up from the 51 in July. I'll run through the numbers and then do the comparisons.

There are some usual numbers. The 40218 and Bon Air zones have more reports.

By Zip Code

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

ZIP_CODE

40218

0.750

< .001

40220

0.250

< .001

By Zone
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
Zone	Bon Air	59	68	0.868	< .001
	Highgate Springs	9	68	0.132	< .001

The most frequent type of report was assaults:

By Crime Type
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
CRIME_TYPE	ASSAULT	15	68	0.221	< .001
	BURGLARY	3	68	0.044	< .001
	DISTURBING THE PEACE	2	68	0.029	< .001
	DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS	3	68	0.044	< .001
	FRAUD	6	68	0.088	< .001
	MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT	3	68	0.044	< .001
	OTHER	16	68	0.235	< .001
	ROBBERY	2	68	0.029	< .001
	THEFT/LARCENY	11	68	0.162	< .001
	VANDALISM	5	68	0.074	< .001
	VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT	1	68	0.015	< .001
	WEAPONS	1	68	0.015	< .001

The Assaults were in the following locations:

Where The Assaults were?
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2200 BLOCK GERALD CT	1	15	0.067	< .001
	2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL	2	15	0.133	0.007
	2900 BLOCK NOE CT	1	15	0.067	< .001
	3000 BLOCK HIKES LN	2	15	0.133	0.007
	3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	6	15	0.400	0.607
	3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	1	15	0.067	< .001
	GOLDSMITH LN / WILLOW WAY	1	15	0.067	< .001
	MEADOW DR / TERRIER LN	1	15	0.067	< .001

The "other" crimes were:

The "Other" Types of Crime
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
UOR_DESC	ANY NON CRIMINAL CHARGE NOT COVERED BY THESE CODES	1	16	0.063	< .001
	DEATH INVESTIGATION	1	16	0.063	< .001
	DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT	6	16	0.375	0.454
	INDECENT EXPOSURE - 2ND DEGREE	1	16	0.063	< .001
	LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANC	2	16	0.125	0.004
	MISSING PERSONS	3	16	0.188	0.021
	NON-CRIMINAL DEATH (NATURAL CAUSES)	1	16	0.063	< .001
	PROPERTY LOST OR ABANDONED NON CRIMINAL	1	16	0.063	< .001

The indecent exposure and death investigation were at 3600 Green Meadows and the leaving the lean of the accident were at Bardstown/Bashford Manor.

Getting to the comparison and listing can be probably illuminated by looking at 3300 Bardstown Road. It had 26 reports up from the 12 reports in July.

Types of Crimes at 3300 Bardstown Rd


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
CRIME_TYPE	ASSAULT	6	26	0.231	0.009
	DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS	3	26	0.115	< .001
	FRAUD	4	26	0.154	< .001
	MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT	1	26	0.038	< .001
	OTHER	3	26	0.115	< .001
	ROBBERY	1	26	0.038	< .001
	THEFT/LARCENY	7	26	0.269	0.029
	WEAPONS	1	26	0.038	< .001

The Hotel Motel had 10 of the reports up from 3 in July.

Types of police reports at the Hotel/Motel at 3300 Bardstown Rd
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
UOR_DESC	ASSAULT - 4TH DEGREE (DOMESTIC VIOLENCE) MINOR INJURY	1	10	0.100	0.021
	CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF FORGED INSTRUMENT-3RD DEGREE	1	10	0.100	0.021
	DRUG PARAPHERNALIA - BUY/POSSESS	1	10	0.100	0.021
	OBSCURING THE IDENTITY OF A MACHINE U/$10000	1	10	0.100	0.021
	POSS CONTROLLED SUB 1ST DEGREE 2ND OFF (METHAMPHETAMINE)	1	10	0.100	0.021
	POSS OF MARIJUANA	1	10	0.100	0.021
	POSSESSION OF FIREARM BY CONVICTED FELON	1	10	0.100	0.021
	TBUT OR DISP FROM BLDG $500 OR > BUT < $10,000	1	10	0.100	0.021
	TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING < $500	1	10	0.100	0.021
	WANTON ENDANGERMENT-1ST DEGREE	1	10	0.100	0.021

So, overall, there was a 33 percent increase, but we can attribute it to 3300 Bardstown Rd.

One comment on the burglaries. There were three of them. They were at 3200 Stafford, 2300 Terrier Ct, and 3400 Rowena.

The one car theft was at 2300 Terrier Ct. If you have been keeping track of this block, you probably might agree that it has not been a good year for it.

I also hope you join one of the neighborhood associations in your zone but regardless you are welcome to join the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are having a general membership meeting tomorrow night (September 13,2021) at 6:30pm at Buechel Park Baptist Church, 2403 Hikes Lane, in the Fellowship Hall. Our scheduled speakers include Major Corey Robinson, of the LMPD 6th District. It is your opportunity to ask questions about what the LMPD is focusing on and seeing in our area.

Otherwise, the Bon Air Neighborhood Association definitely could use your support.

The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join.

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here.

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8

Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Bon Air Neighborhood Association General Meeting Monday, 9/13/2021 6:30pm Featuring Jefferson County PVA Colleen Younger. (Masks Required)

The last time the Bon Air Neighborhood Association had a face-to-face, general membership meeting was March 9,2020. The Trump impeachment was over and the major news had become Covid-19. \

I remember one guy asked me when he came in, "Is this a good idea?" I honestly thought he may have been right.

I will spare the philosophizing about the last 17 months of life under Covid-19, other than to say, we are going to brave variants Delta, Lambda and Mu and try having another face-to-face meeting on Monday, September 13, 2021, at 6:30pm at Buechel Park Baptist Church, 2403 Hikes Lane.

We have an exciting meeting that hopefully is going to be of interest to the Bon Air Neighborhood.

First, we have the Jefferson County Public Valuation Administrator, Colleen Younger. The re-valuation of houses in the neighborhood has been of great interest on Next Door. She will discuss how she does her job according to Kentucky Revised Statutes.

Then we will have Major Corey Robinson, who is over the LMPD 6th Division. He will discuss what has been happening and the current efforts of LMPD in this area. He will then do Q and A.

Following up will be Jeff Noble. Jeff is the Legislative Assistant to Brent Ackerson, District 26 Metro Council Representative. He will discuss the current governmental concerns are and also do Q and A.

You do not have to be a current member of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association to attend. However to attend you will need to wear a face mask.

I still hear the guy's voice in my head: "Is this a good idea?" I can only say: Why not? No one appeared to catch Covid from the last time we met on March 9, 2020, and

if we only come if we feel good
all wear masks, and
do social distancing,

we should be fine.

Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Bon Air Crime Analysis for July 2021. Down a Little Again Overall, but Up in Highgate Springs.

This is an analysis for July 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

There were 51 reports made by LMPD, down from the 53 in June. There were the usual trends, but it was significant that the Highgate Springs zone had an increase in reports.

Here are the usual breakdowns.

The 40218 area and the Bon Air zone had the higher number of reports.

Crime Reports by Zip Code


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
ZIP_CODE	40218	36	51	0.706	0.005
	40220	15	51	0.294	0.005

Crime Reports by Zone
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
Zone	Bon Air	34	51	0.667	0.024
	Bon Air Estates	1	51	0.020	< .001
	Highgate Springs	16	51	0.314	0.011

But again the Highgate Springs had a higher number percentage of cases. This is not the highest number of cases this year as January had 17 reports, but there were

9 reports in June
13 reports in May
12 reports in April
9 reports in March
14 reports in February

I think that it is due to an increase in thefts/larcenies in that zone.

Thefts/Larcenies in Highgate Springs


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2800 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	5	0.200	0.375
	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	5	0.200	0.375
	3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD	2	5	0.400	1.000
	3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD	1	5	0.200	0.375

Otherwise, for the whole neighborhood, it was a multi-modal trend in the number of reports by weekday in that Mondays and Thursdays had the most reports.

Crime Reports by weekday

With regard to overall crime reports, assaults were the most common.

Here is a table for those of you who like clear numbers:

Reports by Crime Type
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
CRIME_TYPE	ASSAULT	13	51	0.255	< .001
	BURGLARY	1	51	0.020	< .001
	DISTURBING THE PEACE	1	51	0.020	< .001
	FRAUD	1	51	0.020	< .001
	MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT	1	51	0.020	< .001
	OTHER	11	51	0.216	< .001
	ROBBERY	2	51	0.039	< .001
	THEFT/LARCENY	10	51	0.196	< .001
	VANDALISM	5	51	0.098	< .001
	VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT	6	51	0.118	< .001

The assaults happened throughout the neighborhood, but mostly at 3300 Bardstown.

Location of Assaults


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN	1	13	0.077	0.003
	2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT	2	13	0.154	0.022
	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	13	0.077	0.003
	2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE	1	13	0.077	0.003
	3000 BLOCK RADIANCE RD	1	13	0.077	0.003
	3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	5	13	0.385	0.581
	3300 BLOCK NOE WAY	1	13	0.077	0.003
	I264E AT BARDSTOWN RD	1	13	0.077	0.003

The larcenies were the next most common report.

Location of Thefts/Larcenies


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2800 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	10	0.100	0.021
	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	10	0.100	0.021
	3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD	2	10	0.200	0.109
	3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	3	10	0.300	0.344
	3300 BLOCK WELLINGMOOR AVE	1	10	0.100	0.021
	3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD	1	10	0.100	0.021
	3700 BLOCK MINA TER	1	10	0.100	0.021

There were 10 "Other" reports. These were what they were.

Other Crime reports
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
UOR_DESC	DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT	2	11	0.182	0.065
	LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE	3	11	0.273	0.227
	MISSING PERSONS	5	11	0.455	1.000
	RECOVERY OF STOLEN PROPERTY	1	11	0.091	0.012

The missing person reports as usual were at 2300 Goldsmith Lane.

We are always interested in car break-ins and car thefts.

Location of Car Break-Ins/Thefts


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN	2	7	0.286	0.453
	2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT	1	7	0.143	0.125
	3000 BLOCK WEDGEWOOD WAY	2	7	0.286	0.453
	3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	2	7	0.286	0.453

The report at 2300 block of Terrier was the actual theft of a car. The other three locations were two reports at the same time that included taking the car tags in addition to breaking into the cars.

As usual, the 3300 block of Bardstown was the location with the most reports with 23.5 percent.

Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
CRIME_TYPE	ASSAULT	5	12	0.417	0.774
	DISTURBING THE PEACE	1	12	0.083	0.006
	OTHER	2	12	0.167	0.039
	THEFT/LARCENY	3	12	0.250	0.146
	VANDALISM	1	12	0.083	0.006

Here are the premises of the reports

Premises of Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
PREMISE_TYPE	CONVENIENCE STORE	1	12	0.083	0.006
	HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY	1	12	0.083	0.006
	HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.	3	12	0.250	0.146
	OTHER / UNKNOWN	1	12	0.083	0.006
	OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)	3	12	0.250	0.146
	PARKING LOT / GARAGE	3	12	0.250	0.146

The hotel/motel had 1) a domestic violence call, 2) an assault call and 3) a theft/larceny call. They happened on different days.

Other notes:

There was one burglary from a garage at 2800 Hikes Lane.
There was one robbery report at 3100 Wedgewood Way, by or in Farnsley Park on 7/19/2021. It looks like it was an attempted robbery.
At 2300 Terrier Lane, where there was a murder back in May, besides the car theft there was a domestic violence call and a report of an assault. They happened at different times/dates.

Otherwise, I want to remind you that Seneca High School will be open for real in a few weeks. There has been a trend to see increased car thefts in the morning when people are warming up their vehicles and leaving the doors open.

I also hope you join one of the neighborhood associations in your zone but regardless you are welcome to join the Bon Air Neighborhood Association.

The Bon Air Neighborhood Association definitely could use your support.

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here.

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8