Bon Air Crime Analysis for August 2021 Up 33 percent in total reports from July

 

This is an analysis for August 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   The limits of this analysis also include that it is limited to what LMPD actually puts on this report. 

There were 68 total reports, up from the 51 in July.   I'll run through the numbers and then do the comparisons.

There are some usual numbers. The 40218 and Bon Air zones have more reports. 

By Zip Code
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		51		68		0.750		< .001
		40220		17		68		0.250		< .001
By Zone Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Zone Bon Air 59 68 0.868 < .001   Highgate Springs 9 68 0.132 < .001

The most frequent type of report was assaults: 

By Crime Type
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		15		68		0.221		< .001
		BURGLARY		3		68		0.044		< .001
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		2		68		0.029		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		3		68		0.044		< .001
		FRAUD		6		68		0.088		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		3		68		0.044		< .001
		OTHER		16		68		0.235		< .001
		ROBBERY		2		68		0.029		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		11		68		0.162		< .001
		VANDALISM		5		68		0.074		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		1		68		0.015		< .001
		WEAPONS		1		68		0.015		< .001

The  Assaults were in the following locations: 

Where The Assaults were?
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK GERALD CT		1		15		0.067		< .001
		2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL		2		15		0.133		0.007
		2900 BLOCK NOE CT		1		15		0.067		< .001
		3000 BLOCK HIKES LN		2		15		0.133		0.007
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		6		15		0.400		0.607
		3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		15		0.067		< .001
		GOLDSMITH LN / WILLOW WAY		1		15		0.067		< .001
		MEADOW DR / TERRIER LN		1		15		0.067		< .001

The "other" crimes were: 

The "Other" Types of Crime
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		ANY NON CRIMINAL CHARGE NOT COVERED BY THESE CODES		1		16		0.063		< .001
		DEATH INVESTIGATION		1		16		0.063		< .001
		DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT		6		16		0.375		0.454
		INDECENT EXPOSURE - 2ND DEGREE		1		16		0.063		< .001
		LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANC		2		16		0.125		0.004
		MISSING PERSONS		3		16		0.188		0.021
		NON-CRIMINAL DEATH (NATURAL CAUSES)		1		16		0.063		< .001
		PROPERTY LOST OR ABANDONED NON CRIMINAL		1		16		0.063		< .001

The indecent exposure and death investigation were at 3600 Green Meadows and the leaving the lean of the accident were at Bardstown/Bashford Manor. 

Getting to the comparison and listing can be probably illuminated by looking at 3300 Bardstown Road. It had 26 reports up from the 12 reports in July. 

Types of Crimes at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		6		26		0.231		0.009
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		3		26		0.115		< .001
		FRAUD		4		26		0.154		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		1		26		0.038		< .001
		OTHER		3		26		0.115		< .001
		ROBBERY		1		26		0.038		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		7		26		0.269		0.029
		WEAPONS		1		26		0.038		< .001

The Hotel Motel had 10 of the reports up from 3 in July. 

Types of police reports at the Hotel/Motel at 3300 Bardstown Rd   Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p UOR_DESC ASSAULT - 4TH DEGREE (DOMESTIC VIOLENCE) MINOR INJURY 1 10 0.100 0.021   CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF FORGED INSTRUMENT-3RD DEGREE 1 10 0.100 0.021   DRUG PARAPHERNALIA - BUY/POSSESS 1 10 0.100 0.021   OBSCURING THE IDENTITY OF A MACHINE U/$10000 1 10 0.100 0.021   POSS CONTROLLED SUB 1ST DEGREE 2ND OFF (METHAMPHETAMINE) 1 10 0.100 0.021   POSS OF MARIJUANA 1 10 0.100 0.021   POSSESSION OF FIREARM BY CONVICTED FELON 1 10 0.100 0.021   TBUT OR DISP FROM BLDG $500 OR > BUT < $10,000 1 10 0.100 0.021   TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING < $500 1 10 0.100 0.021   WANTON ENDANGERMENT-1ST DEGREE 1 10 0.100 0.021

 So, overall, there was a 33 percent increase, but we can attribute it to 3300 Bardstown Rd. 

One comment on the burglaries.  There were three of them.  They were at 3200 Stafford, 2300 Terrier Ct, and 3400 Rowena. 

The one car theft was at 2300 Terrier Ct.  If you have been keeping track of this block, you probably might agree that it has not been a good year for it.

I also hope you join one of the neighborhood associations in your zone but regardless you are welcome to join the Bon Air Neighborhood Association.   We are having a general membership meeting tomorrow night (September 13,2021) at 6:30pm at Buechel Park Baptist Church, 2403 Hikes Lane, in the Fellowship Hall.  Our scheduled speakers include Major Corey Robinson, of the LMPD 6th District.   It is your opportunity to ask questions about what the LMPD is focusing on and seeing in our area. 

Otherwise, the Bon Air Neighborhood Association definitely could use your support. 

The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join. 

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here. 

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8