Bon Air Crime Analysis for January 2020. Reports were up.

This is an analysis for January, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports/resource/6d81fdf8-27e7-41ac-9ae4-1bfd8730f002 

It is a Microsoft Excel file that requires just a touch of manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.  



I am still getting familiar with the JASP package and while it can tabulate things more readily and produce some nice tables and graphics, the nature of this analysis is still rudimentary.

Overall there were 51 reports in the neighborhood.  This is up from 26 reports in December

Crime Reports by Zip Code

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		30		51		0.588		0.262
		40220		21		51		0.412		0.262
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5. Type of Crime Reports in Bon Air, January 2020 Binomial Test Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 7 51 0.137 < .001 BURGLARY 4 51 0.078 < .001 DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS 3 51 0.059 < .001 FRAUD 4 51 0.078 < .001 MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 4 51 0.078 < .001 OTHER 17 51 0.333 0.024 THEFT/LARCENY 7 51 0.137 < .001 VANDALISM 2 51 0.039 < .001 VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 3 51 0.059 < .001 Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5. This is a chart of type of crimes per zip code.  Types of Crimes by Zip Code Contingency Tables ZIP_CODE CRIME_TYPE 40218 40220 Total ASSAULT 1 6 7 BURGLARY 3 1 4 DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS 3 0 3 FRAUD 1 3 4 MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 2 2 4 OTHER 13 4 17 THEFT/LARCENY 4 3 7 VANDALISM 1 1 2 VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT 2 1 3 Total 30 21 51 The other category mostly included 13 missing person reports. Eleven of those were at Boys and Girls Haven.  Again my heart goes out to the staff at Boys and Girls Haven, because the reality of adolescents in residential care is that they often lack a sense of gratitude for a place to stay, but then again they also have trauma and reactive-attachment issues that make it difficult for them to stay in one place. The rest of the "other category was either  related to domestic violence or some other crime.   Regarding the assault reports, six of them were in the apartments on Masemure (just south of  Seneca High School).  The other was in the 2800 block of Hikes Lane (at the intersection of Goldsmith and Hikes).  The motor vehicle thefts happened on the 3500 block of Lisbon Lane, the 3100 block of Radiance, the 2800 block of Dell Brooke, and in the parking lot of a hotel at 3300 Bardstown Road. The Burglaries happened in two locations: a business at 2200 Goldsmith Lane, what appears to be a church on Hikes Lane and a home on Hendon Rd. The thefts/larcenies  were spread out across the neighborhood. No particular pattern seemed worth reporting.  The drug/alcohol violations were all along the west end of the neighborhood. Two of the charges were a day apart at a hotel at 3300 Bardstown Rd. The other report was at the intersection of Hikes Lane and Buechel Bypass. Otherwise, it is a good thing that many of you have doorbell cameras.  They are great deterrents to crime.  The Bon Air Neighborhood Association is still supporting residents who want to organize block watches.  We would be happy to discuss it more at our next meeting at the Bon Air Library on Febuary 10, 2020 at 6:30 pm.

  

Yes, we are sticking letters in your doors, and yes, if you are going to have your front door open, clothes are indicated.

So the name of the street will remain nameless, but it was a great afternoon to walk Bon Air Streets and put membership letters in door.

Our goal is to get the message out that we are here and we want you to play a part.  Febuary 2, 2020, Ground Hog Day . . . and Super Bowl Sunday was a fantastic day to deliver the message.

It was not without some hazards.  If you have a door bell camera, yes it was me in my Iowa State sweatshirt walking on some streets.   If you were in your living room with your front door open I was going to give you my spiel. There was one exception . . . the man with his front door open in front of what was probably the Super Bowl pre-game show.  He was in a recliner and was covered with a blanket. 

I said I hi.

He said, "I'm not wearing clothes.'

I said, "I'll leave this in the door so you can come and get when you are wearing clothes."

That aside, I hope that if you saw the letter. You will give it some thoughts and come to the next Bon Air Neighborhood Association meeting, in the Bon Air Library on Monday, February 10, 2020 at 6:30 pm.

Oh yes . . . thankfully I forgot which house the guy was in . . .awkward. 

BON AIR HOUSING VALUES: Going Back to the Beginning and Counting

As I put in my last post, I have been researching housing in the Bon Air Neighborhood. My original motivation was to analyze the number of rental houses in the neighborhood.

It took a bit of time to collect this data and then figure out how to get some software that I could figure out and that would create some usable information. But now after some tinkering I can try again but with some success this time. 

The database for this research was created from the Jefferson County Property Valuation Administrator (PVA) website and the Lojic.org website.  Both have similar data, but the PVA site could be pasted into an Excel file. The database was compiled between February 2019 and December 2019. The information was subject to some change based on property sales.

The statistical software that is being used for the analysis is JASP which is an open source program created by the University of Amsterdam.  JASP stands for "Just Another Statistical Program, " man am I lucky to be a native English speaker because they could have named it something in the Dutch language.   

Anyway, the information was categorized in the following fashion:

• Street
• House
• Owner
• Zone
• Rental or Not Rental
• Value

For cleanness of analysis apartment houses, businesses, government owned properties and religious institutions were removed.  It is noted that there is somewhat diverse property ownership. 

The term zone recognizes the official boundaries of the Bon Air Estates and Highgate Springs Neighborhood Associations.  From what I can tell is that when the now defunct Louisville Metro Department of Neighborhoods facilitated the organization, they went by census tract.  There are two census tracts in the historical Bon Air Neighborhood, and the boundaries of the Highgate Springs Neighborhood Association represents one of the tracts. The Bon Air Estates section was essentially created in 2008 via the divergence of opinion between the neighborhood leaders at that time.

So, to get to the first analysis: how many houses are where?

First it is important to note that there were 1995 single-family houses in the Bon Air Neighborhood.

The Bon Air Zone has 54.8  percent or 1094 of the houses.  The Highgate Springs Zone has 33.8 percent or 674 of the houses.  The Bon Air Estates zone has 11.4 percent or 227 houses.

What this looks like in a bar graph is :

In the next post on Housing Values I will look again at the actual monetary values of the single-family homes.

Bon Air Housing Values Mean and Median.

For the past year I have been pecking away at creating a housing database.  I was interested in creating a database to explore rental housing in the historic Bon Air Neighborhood, which means those houses between Furman Blvd and Bardstown Rd, Hikes Lane and the Watterson Expressway/Taylorsville Rd.

I finished entering the values in an Excel Spreadsheet about one week ago and I bought an inexpensive copy of AcaStat off of Amazon, which is a far cry from the power of the SPSS package I used about 15 years ago in my degree at U of L.

More outcomes from my nerdy pursuit will be coming as I figure out more about Acastat, but I at least wanted to report something. So, I managed to get at least one statistic: the Mean and Median housing values.

Here they are

There were 1985 houses in the database, not counting apartment houses. 

The mean is the mathematical average of all the houses and that was $139,357.00.

The median is the middle value in a ranking sense and that was $135,000.

The range of housing values. is from the $80,000's up to around $200,000, so essentially some low outliers drug the mean and median down. I hope to explore these more as I go.

Bon Air Crime Analysis for December 2019: A Good Trend: Down from November.

This is an analysis for December, 2019 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports/resource/6d81fdf8-27e7-41ac-9ae4-1bfd8730f002 

It is a Microsoft Excel file that requires just a touch of manipulation and sorting

As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood. 

There were 26 total police reports in the neighborhood, down from 38 reports in November.  There were eight reports in the 40220 section and 18 reports in the 40128 section.

The following were the reports from the 40220 section: (apologies for the formatting problems)

               REPORT                                                                              BLOCK____________

TBUT OR DISP CONTENTS FROM VEH < $500                                2800 DEL RIO PL                
ASSAULT - 4TH DEG (DOMESTIC VIOLENCE/NO VISIBLE INJ   3000 HIKES LN                  
TERRORISTIC THREATENING 3RD DEGREE                                   3200 HIKES LN                  
BURGLARY - 2ND DEGREE                                                                 3300 ALLISON WY            
ASSAULT - 4TH DEGREE (NO VISIBLE INJURY)                             3300  BON AIR AV             
MISSING PERSONS                                                                                3300  GOLDSMITH LN         
PROPERTY LOST OR ABANDONED NON CRIMINAL                     3500 GOLDSMITH LN       
THEFT OF PROP LOST/MISLAID/DELIVER BY MISTAKE FELONY D 3600 ARGYLE LN          

                          

Regarding the 40218 section . . .

There were seven missing person reports from the 2300 block of Goldsmith.  This is the sad story of kids running from Boys and Girls Haven.  I have tended to avoid commenting about this out of empathy as my first job in the social services was working for a similar agency in another state with a similar problem. The reality is that many kids in foster care (especially residential) hate where they are and they just run from placements. 

The 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had six reports and one of them was a missing person's report, which makes for five crime reports.  

• Two of the reports were at a bank or savings establishment for possession of a forged instrument.
• Two of those reports was for a cold check. 
• One report was a vandalism report at a retail store.     . 

There were five remaining reports in the 40218 section as follows:
(apologies for the formatting problems)
                REPORT                                                                              BLOCK____________

CRIMINAL MISCHIEF-2ND DEGREE                                           2500  MEADOW DR                  
TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING < $500                                     3300 HEATHER LN         
THEFT OF IDENTITY OF ANOTHER WITHOUT CONSENT     3300 WELLINGMOOR AVE     
TBUT OR DISP SHOPLIFTING $500 OR >  BUT < $10,000         3500 BARDSTOWN RD      
TRAF IN MARIJUANA-LESS THAN 8 OZ-1ST OFFENSE          3600 BARDSTOWN RD

The trend continues to be encouraging.  As I walk the neighborhood passing out the membership letter I see more houses with the different brand security cameras. I am guessing for the lack of car thefts that people are not leaving unlocked cars warming up and are locking them period. 

Crime prevention works and the Bon Air Neighborhood Association is still interested in facilitating the formation of neighborhood block watches.   The local news operations will likely start talking again about Metro Government budget woes and how it will affect the police department, and everything we can do as a neighborhood to prevent crime and empower Louisville's finest in the LMPD to handle more pressing matters elsewhere in the Sixth District. 

                                                         

Mental Health Crisis Resources Near the Bon Air Neighborhood

On November 21, 2019, LMPD responded to a report of a suicide within the Bon Air Neighborhood. Other than it happening on Dean Drive, there is no other information and it is probably just as well for the privacy of the deceased, and the deceased's family.

According to the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention (http://chapterland.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2018/06/Kentucky-State-Facts.pdf) suicide was the 11th leading cause of death in Kentucky in 2018 with 756 having people been determined to have taken their lives during last year.  The report of the suicide on Dean Drive brings it home that mental health problems do not just happen elsewhere, they happen in the Bon Air too.

With that in mind, it seemed appropriate to talk about the mental health resources available to the neighborhood.

Crisis Services Near Bon Air

If you are in finding that you or another person are in a mental health crisis and you or they do not feel safe you can do the following:

1) Call 911 and talk with a metro safe operator.  Depending on your situation a LMPD officer and/or EMS may come to your house and take you to a hospital for assessment.  LMPD has made special effort over the last 20 years to train officers on how to handle mental health crises. 

2) Call the Centerstone Crisis and Information Line 589-4313.  This is a phone service ran by the local public mental health agency, Centerstone (formerly called Seven Counties).

3) If you can get somewhere, go for an assessment at one of the following hospitals/medical centers near the neighborhood:

• U of L Peace Hospital (formerly Our Lady of Peace) 2020 Newburg Rd)
• The Brook Hospital Dupont 1405 Browns Lane
• Baptist Health 4000 Kresge Way
• U of L/Jewish Medical Center East 3920 Dutchman's Lane

As you can see from the map, all four are close to Bon Air:

• Peace Hospital is 3.2 miles away if you go west on Goldsmith Lane and then North on Newburg Rd.
• The Brook Dupont is 2.5 miles away if you go east on Taylorsville Rd, North on Breckinridge Ln and then East on Dutchman's Lane
• Baptist Health is also 2.5 miles away if you go east on Taylorsville Rd and then north on Breckinridge Ln. 
• Jewish Hospital Medical Center East is 1.8 miles away if you go east on Taylorsville Rd and then north on Breckinridge Ln. 

All of these facilities are open 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

What to Expect in an Mental Health Assessment

Getting an assessment at Peace Hospital and the Brook are a similar experience given that they are "specialty" psychiatric hospitals.  You will go to the door and say that you are there for an assessment. You will fill out one or more registration forms.  You will then see a masters level clinician who conduct a structured assessment interview (they have a list of questions that they follow) 

U of L Peace Hospital's Assessment and Referral Center is on the north side of the hospital in the Assessment and Referral Center entrance. You (and any people with you) will have to go through a security screening that includes going through a metal detector. You will be taken to the hallway where you or your family member/friend will wait to be assessed.  Peace Hospital Clinicians type their answers into a computer.  The interview can take 30-60 minutes depending how much people have to say.  The clinician will then call a medical provider (usually a psychiatrist) to get direction on your case.

The Brook Dupont has you come in the designated entrance where you will wait to see a clinician. The Brook clinician fills out your answers on a worksheet and then will call a provider (usually a psychiatrist) and will get direction on your case.

Baptist Health and Jewish Medical Center are first and foremost medical emergency rooms and you will first get a medical clearance before you are assessed.  Baptist Health has an assessor who comes over from Behavioral Health Intake when called by the Emergency Department.  Jewish Medical Center will call for an U of L Peace Clinician to come to do the assessment. 

A note of caution: all of these locations are emergency rooms and they go in the order of arrival and may choose to triage and prioritize cases.  The wait for the assessment (sadly) can be hours, but you and/or your friend-family member will be safe; sometimes a lot of people come at the same time to be assessed and things just cannot go any faster (trust me--as an assessment clinician I have wished I could see people faster because I have felt bad that people have waited hours to be seen).

 Fighting the Stigma

For all intents and purposes in this post, I will define stigma as the embarrassment and shame  someone feels that they depressed and having suicidal thoughts.  When people feel this stigma there is the fear that the rest of the world will treat them like lepers, reject them, and avoid them forever. There can even be the emotional sense that your depression and suicidal thoughts will be the headline on the next day's edition of The Courier Journal.  

Stigma is the reason why people do not come in to seek help. 

In my 22 years of working in Mental Health, I have came to see that stigma is typically fueled by usually one dysfunctional family member who makes stupid, judgmental and insensitive comments.  Well, the rest of the world is not like your insensitive relative, and your seeking mental health assessment and treatment is a private matter that is by law held in a private, confidential manner. .  You will be treated with dignity in your assessment; you will not be mocked or laughed at because you or your loved one is having these issues.   

I will note that I have not talked about addiction resources near Bon Air but I may do a post in the future. 

I hope that you never need this information in your own life.  If you have questions to ask, you can post questions in the comment section or on Facebook.  I will be happy to take questions at the next Bon Air Neighborhood Association meeting tomorrow night (Monday), December 9, 2019 in the Bon Air Library Community room which starts at 6:30 pm. 

Bon Air Crime Analysis for November 2019. Up from October but not as High as September, and They were at the Edges.

This is an analysis for November, 2019 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports/resource/6d81fdf8-27e7-41ac-9ae4-1bfd8730f002 

It is a Microsoft Excel file that requires just a touch of manipulation and sorting

As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood. 

There was one police report of a suicide on Dean Drive.  It was a tragedy but not a crime. 

There were 38 crime reports between November 1 and November 30.  There were 32 reports for the 40218 area and six reports for 40220.   Of course it was up from the 21 reports for the area in October but certainly less than the 54 reports in September. 

To cut to the chase about the 40220 section the six reports will be listed: 

• 2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE           MISSING PERSONS                                          
• 3100 BLOCK RADIANCE RD       KNOWING WANTON/RECKLESS EXPLOIT OF ADULT                   
• 3500 BLOCK BROCKTON LN     TBUT OR DISP FIREARM                                         
• 3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN    VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT PARKING LOT / GARAGE
• 3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN    TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING < $500                
• 3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN   MISSING PERSONS         

For the 40218 section 

Right off of the top, it will be noted that there were seven reports at 2300 Goldsmith Lane. Six of them were missing children reports and one cold check charge.  I presume that the missing children were at Boys and Girls Haven.

The 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had five police reports.  Three of the complaints were at a hotel/motel that included two harassment charges and a theft incident. The other two were possession of a forged instrument and a harassment complaint with physical contact.

The most type of crime report in the 40218 area for the month was "Theft/Larceny."  They appeared to happen at the edges of the neighborhood and not within the center.

• 2200 BLOCK BASHFORD MANOR LN                               
• 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN                                        
• 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN                                        
• 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN                                        
• 2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN                                    
• 3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD                                    
• 3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD                                                                 

There were three vehicle break-ins.  Two were at a service station in the 2300 and 2800 blocks of Hikes Lane.  The third break-in was in one of the parking lots in the 2200 block of Heather Lane.

There were three assault reports.  Two of them appeared to be at a single event in the 2300 Block of Terrier Court, which is a set of apartment houses.   The third was at 3500 Meadow Court 

There were two burglaries.  One burglary was at a church in the 2800 block of Hikes lane. The other was an apartment in the 2300 block of Hikes Lane. 

There were three fraud reports in the 2900 block of Hikes Lane, 3500 block of Lisbon Lane, and 3600 block of Bardstown Rd.   The Lisbon Lane incident appeared to be someone reporting identity theft. 

There were two categories with only one report.  There was one vandalism report at the 2300 Block of Hikes Lane at a business. There was one domestic violence report in the 2200 block of Gerald Court. 

Overall, if there was a particular theme, the crime reports in the 40218 section were mainly at the south and west edges of the neighborhood and not so much within the neighborhood.  

It remains to be said that the crime prevention techniques that Bon Air residents are using are effective.  Getting a door camera or a smart doorbell does deter would-be thieves.  As I walk the neighborhood making the next distribution of our membership letter, I note that many households have made the investment. 

Also, consider joining a block watch.  The Bon Air Neighborhood Association continues to endorse participation in block watches.  Given Chief Steve Conrad's recent statement that the LMPD budget woes will lead to between 75 to 100 fewer police officers in the next fiscal year, block watches seem all the more to be a viable citizen response to make our community safer.

If you are interested in Block Watch participation, please come to the next Bon Air Neighborhood Association meeting Monday, December 9, 2019 at 6:30 pm in the community room of the
Bon Air Neighborhood.