Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Bon Air Crime Analysis for October 2021. Police Reports up 31 Percent!

 

This is an analysis for September 2021 based on open data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   The limits of this analysis also include that it is limited to what LMPD actually puts on this report. 

There were 89 reports, which is an increase of 30.88 percent over the 68 reports in September. 

I will run through the usual analyses and compare them with last month.

As usual, the 40218 and Bon Air zones had the higher numbers. 

Reports by Zip Code

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Zip Code

40218

70

89

0.787

< .001

 

40220

19

89

0.213

< .001

 

Reports by Zone

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Zone

Bon Air

71

89

0.798

< .001

 

Bon Air Estates

1

89

0.011

< .001

 

Highgate Springs

17

89

0.191

< .001

 

In September, the 40218 zip code had 48 reports while the 40220 area had 20.  Thus 40218 had 22 more reports while the 40218 are actually decreased by one.

However, when the cake is cut by neighborhood association zone, Highgate Springs actually had 10 more reports in October and Bon Air only had three more reports.

Reports by Weekday

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Weekday

Friday

11

89

0.124

< .001

 

Monday

10

89

0.112

< .001

 

Saturday

9

89

0.101

< .001

 

Sunday

15

89

0.169

< .001

 

Thursday

18

89

0.202

< .001

 

Tuesday

12

89

0.135

< .001

 

Wednesday

14

89

0.157

< .001

When evaluating by weekday, Mondays, Tuesdays, and Fridays saw more reports than September. Mondays in October had fewer reports. 

 Analysis by Crime Types

Reports by Crime Type  

 

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Crime Type

ASSAULT

18

89

0.202

< .001

 

 

BURGLARY

6

89

0.067

< .001

 

 

DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS

3

89

0.034

< .001

 

 

FRAUD

6

89

0.067

< .001

 

 

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

5

89

0.056

< .001

 

 

OTHER

15

89

0.169

< .001

 

 

ROBBERY

1

89

0.011

< .001

 

 

SEX CRIMES

1

89

0.011

< .001

 

 

THEFT/LARCENY

14

89

0.157

< .001

 

 

VANDALISM

13

89

0.146

< .001

 

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

7

89

0.079

< .001

 

 




 Compared to September, there were actually fewer assaults (23 as opposed to 18). There were increases in burglaries, alcohol/drug violations, fraud, motor vehicle theft, other, theft/larceny, vandalism, and vehicle break-in/theft.   There were no sex crime reports in September. 

The "Other" Reports

The Other Reports

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Specific Offense

DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE)

3

15

0.200

0.035

 

DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT

3

15

0.200

0.035

 

LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE

1

15

0.067

< .001

 

MISSING PERSONS

7

15

0.467

1.000

 

SUICIDE

1

15

0.067

< .001

 

There were a few more missing persons and there was one more drug overdose report over that in September.   As usual, the missing persons are kids that leave Boys and Girls Haven. 

It is here where it can be stated that the shooting death in Farnsley Park on 10/28/2021 that made the media was a suicide. 

 

 Focus on 3300 Bardstown Rd. 

Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Crime Type

ASSAULT

5

19

0.263

0.064

 

FRAUD

1

19

0.053

< .001

 

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

2

19

0.105

< .001

 

OTHER

1

19

0.053

< .001

 

ROBBERY

1

19

0.053

< .001

 

THEFT/LARCENY

5

19

0.263

0.064

 

VANDALISM

2

19

0.105

< .001

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

2

19

0.105

< .001

 

 There were five more reports in October than September. There were two car thefts, and five larcenies.  There were neither of these report types in September. 

Locations of different types of reports. 

 

Location of Assaults

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Block Address

200 BLOCK FLANDERS CT

3

18

0.167

0.008

 

2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL

2

18

0.111

0.001

 

2900 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

5

18

0.278

0.096

 

3300 BLOCK TERRIER LN

2

18

0.111

0.001

 

3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

Location of Burglaries

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Block Address

2200 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN

2

6

0.333

0.687

 

2900 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN

1

6

0.167

0.219

 

2900 BLOCK NOE CT

1

6

0.167

0.219

 

3000 BLOCK WEDGEWOOD WAY

1

6

0.167

0.219

 

3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

1

6

0.167

0.219

 

Location of Car Thefts and Break-ins

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Block Address

2800 BLOCK SHEILA DR

1

12

0.083

0.006

 

2900 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN

1

12

0.083

0.006

 

3100 BLOCK COMMANDER DR

1

12

0.083

0.006

 

3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD

1

12

0.083

0.006

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

4

12

0.333

0.388

 

3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

3

12

0.250

0.146

 

3500 BLOCK MEDFORD CT

1

12

0.083

0.006

 There were a few addresses that had assaults again. 

The locations of the car-related crimes were different from last month, which may suggest that these could be on the rise.  

The burglaries were a little more on the interior of the neighborhood. In September, they were all on the perimeter of the neighborhood. 

Overall, it is concerning that the number of reports went up because more reports of different kinds were spread out in different locations. 

Concluding thoughts

I am hoping that these higher numbers are not a pattern.  It is important to keep cars locked.  Also, if you see something, say something.   

After I was working with adolescents who frequently used the word "snitch," I came to see the "word" differently.  There was some claim of victimhood by a perpetrator and that the "snitch" was guilty of betrayal.  I came to see this as emotional intimidation. I will say that people do struggle with speaking up because of this, but if you and I do not show courage when we see things it will only get worse. 

Otherwise, the Bon Air Neighborhood Association definitely could use your support. We seek to be an effective advocate for the neighborhood and are excited that our product of the Farnsley Park stage is coming to fruition, but our work is far from done.  We would love your interest and involvement. 


We have begun to meet in person again.  We meet on the second Monday of the month.  Our next meeting will be in the community room of the Bon Air Library on December 13, 2021, at 6:30pm. 

The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join. 

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here. 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Part of Bon Air Neighborhood to Be in New District and Have New Metro Council Rep Under Proposed Redistricting.


On Thursday, November 12, 2021, the Louisville Metro Council will consider and possibly pass a redistricting ordinance that will affect the Bon Air Neighborhood. 

Should the redistricting pass, Boys and Girls Haven, the Bon Air Library, and the Lincoln Mural will be in District 8.  Farnsley Park will remain in District 26.  

Per Jeff Noble, Legislative Assistant to Brent Ackerson, (and depicted with red lines in the above map) the dividing line between Districts 8 and 26 will be 

1) Goldsmith Lane from Bardstown Road east to Ada Lane/Goldsmith Lane, with District 8 on the north and District 26 on the south.  

2) The line will then follow Del Rio Place east from Ada Lane/Goldsmith Lane to Commander Drive, with District 8 on the north and District 26 on the south. 

4) The line will then follow Commander Drive north to the Watterson Expressway, with District 8 on the west and District 26 on the east.  

5) The line then follows the Watterson Expressway east to Taylorsville Road with District 8 on the north and District 26 on the south (which is currently the boundary in that area).

 Noble said that an exception to the above is that the houses on the south side of Goldsmith Lane are between Heather Lane and Bon Air Avenue which will be in District 8 and not in District 26.

The current district 8 representative is Cassie Chambers Armstrong.

https://louisvilleky.gov/government/metro-council/districts-1-26

The original districts of the metropolitan consolidation that was known as the "city-county merger" were drawn by the late Dr. Stephen Dakin of the University of Louisville on a pro bono basis according to census tracts.