Bon Air Crime Analysis for December 2020 Up 12 Percent from November

This is an analysis for December, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

Overall the rate of police reports within the boundaries was up by about 12 percent as there were 65 reports.  There had been 58 reports in November.  This analysis did not take out the missing person's report category as there had been only had been two such reports. 

There were some of the usual trends: 

1) The 40218 portion had more reports than the 40220 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		48		65		0.738		< .001
		40220		17		65		0.262		< .001

2) The Bon Air zone had more reports

Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Zone Bon Air 49 65 0.754 < .001   Bon Air Estates 2 65 0.031 < .001   Highgate Springs 14 65 0.215 < .001

The Highgate Springs area did have a proportionally increased share of the reports than usual. 

The Bon Air Estates area had one burglary and one misuse of credit card report. 

3) The block of 3300 Block of Bardstown Road continues to be the spot with the most reports. 

What happened at 3300 Bardstown Rd
Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ASSAULT		1		10		0.100		0.021
FRAUD		3		10		0.300		0.344
OTHER		2		10		0.200		0.109
THEFT/LARCENY		3		10		0.300		0.344
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		1		10		0.100		0.021

Types of Crimes in Bon Air

The following chart shows the types of crimes that happened in Bon Air during the month. 

Crime Types
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		17		65		0.262		< .001
		BURGLARY		3		65		0.046		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		1		65		0.015		< .001
		FRAUD		6		65		0.092		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		1		65		0.015		< .001
		OTHER		12		65		0.185		< .001
		ROBBERY		2		65		0.031		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		16		65		0.246		< .001
		VANDALISM		5		65		0.077		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		2		65		0.031		< .001

The highest number of crimes were assaults followed by thefts/larcenies.  

Assaults

Where the Assaults Happened
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		2300 BLOCK HIKES LN		2		17		0.118		0.002
		2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT		1		17		0.059		< .001
		300 BLOCK CHANEL CT		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN		2		17		0.118		0.002
		3100 BLOCK DOREEN WAY		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3300 BLOCK HEATHER LN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		3300 BLOCK RADIANCE RD		3		17		0.176		0.013
		3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD		2		17		0.118		0.002
		BARDSTOWN RD / BASHFORD MANOR LN		1		17		0.059		< .001

The majority (n=15) of assaults happened at residences. One of the assaults on a street and the other happened in a parking lot. They accounted for 10 of the Highgate Springs reports. 

Thefts

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK HIKES LN		2		16		0.125		0.004
		2300 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		16		0.063		< .001
		2400 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		16		0.063		< .001
		300 BLOCK CHANEL CT		1		16		0.063		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		3		16		0.188		0.021
		3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		16		0.063		< .001
		3600 BLOCK ROSEMONT CT		1		16		0.063		< .001
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		4		16		0.250		0.077
		BARDSTOWN RD AT I264		1		16		0.063		< .001
		I264E TO BARDSTOWN RD		1		16		0.063		< .001

With the exception of the Rosemount Ct and Chanel Ct locations, the table shows that thefts happened around the south and west edges of the neighborhood. 

Burglaries

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2500 BLOCK FUREEN DR		1		3		0.333		1.000
		2800 BLOCK SHEILA DR		1		3		0.333		1.000
		3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD		1		3		0.333		1.000

I also like to cover burglaries since Bon Air is a residential area. The only pattern about the burglaries is that two of them happened fairly close to each other. They happened weeks apart.  

The Other Category

The other category had some interesting items. 

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		BIAS INVOLVED INCIDENT		1		12		0.083		0.006
		DEATH INVESTIGATION		1		12		0.083		0.006
		DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE)		1		12		0.083		0.006
		DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT		5		12		0.417		0.774
		LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE		1		12		0.083		0.006
		MISSING PERSONS		2		12		0.167		0.039
		RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION		1		12		0.083		0.006

This is the second consecutive month that there has been an overdose death in the neighborhood.   There has been an increasing trend in overdose deaths in Jefferson County Louisville Metro.(https://www.wave3.com/2020/12/16/drug-overdose-deaths-skyrocket-jefferson-county-during-covid-/)

While the density of the deaths appears to be elsewhere, it is beginning to happen again here too.  Addiction during the pandemic has made a comeback because of the shutdown of AA and NA groups. 

It is hard to say if the statistics will be available next month at this point. LMPD had been creating one big Excel sheet (CSV format) of crime reports.   They had previously been doing them one year at a time but for some unexplained reason,  the file was for 2019-2020. 

Overall, Bon Air continues to be a very safe neighborhood with an overall low crime rate.  I think that it is due to the fact that many people have doorbell cameras. The reduced number of car-related crimes seem to be likely due to school still being on non-traditional instruction. 

We will have a presentation with question and answers over zoom with Officer Jaron Stillman of LMPD at the Bon Air General Membership meeting on 1/11/2021 at 6:30.  The link to the meeting was put on Nextdoor and the Facebook page.  Hope you join us, and thank you for doing your part for keeping Bon Air a safe neighborhood. 

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