Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Rezoning at 3042 Hikes Lane. At Least It is Better Than another Storage Locker Facility or Car Wash

 I must applaud Susan Thurston Bennett and her leadership in the efforts to fight the rezoning of the St Barnabas property for redevelopment into upscale apartments.  That being said, this blog post is my opinion and not that of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association, which voted not to take an official stand one way or the other.   Let me go further with two stories.

My grandparents and parents were residents of Boynton Beach Florida for the better part of four decades. When my grandparents became snowbirds Boynton Beach was pretty much a small town in Palm Beach County squeezed between the coast and Interstate 95.  When my dad passed and my mother made good on her word to go back to four seasons, it had sprawled all the way out to the Florida Turnpike.  I can only imagine what it is today.  But specifically, I want to talk about the northwest corner of the intersection of "Federal Highway and Woolbright Road." From 1977 through 2003 I remember it being a Lumberyard. 

When I came back in 2008 it had been converted into densely packed condos. 


I was shocked at such high-density development because I was used to Boynton Beach having more trees and this really ruined the asethetic.  But my father had told me that real estate developers controlled the politics of Palm Beach County, and this development made sense to me in light of that. 

Bringing it back to Hikes Point.  I had wished I still had the aerial photograph of Hikes Lane circa 1940.  It was a rural road.  The peach orchard (where Orchard Manor apartments sit) and farmland had been converted into post-war suburbia. The Arch Diocese of Louisville appeared to be aggressive in its mission efforts to have three parishes and schools close to each other: St Pius on Goldsmith, St Barnabas on Hikes Lane and St. Martha on Klondike Lane.  I was quite impressed with the quality of the St Barnabas facility when I had been in there and been there for the picnics.  To a guy not from Louisville, that really speaks volumes to the presence of the Catholic Church in this area of Louisville. 

I can only theorize what the numbers said to the Diocese, but it appeared to be a good decision to merge St Barnabas and St Pius into John Paul and move ministry operations to Goldsmith.  Furthermore, it appeared to be good stewardship to part with the St Barnabas property of 9.63 acres. 


LDG, a real estate developer has seen-value in redeveloping the St Barnabas site at 3042 Hikes Lane. Their plan is "Go big or go home."  It is going to be a four-story property with a four-story parking garage. It requires a rezoning from single-family housing to R-8A (58 housing units per acre).  This is where it is drawing opposition.  

Here is a link to the petition: Stop DRASTIC Rezoning.   There are some big negatives to this idea like it will stick out like a sore thumb.  It could add a lot of stress on the road, cause traffic jams, and affect the drainage in the area. 

On the other hand,, it is an upscale apartment complex, and neither a storage locker facility nor a car wash, two kinds of establishments that have popped up over the past several years in abundance. I would rather have had such an upscale apartment complex at 3304 Bardstown Rd or at 2200 Goldsmith Lane, but I am not sure the people of the Bashford Manor neighborhood would agree. 

My gut is that it will pass the Planning Commission.  Actually, the research is in its favor. This is not some, "alternative lifestyle" club that tried to set up shop in Buechel nor a Methadone clinic that tried to take over the old post office in Bardstown Square.  This is a legitimate, local (and national) developer with clout and the odds are for it to pass. This would bring some population density back to the area (which spread out with urban sprawl) and could help create development momentum in the neighborhood. 

On the other hand, if my gut is wrong, I would challenge the community to come forward and organize to redevelop the property in a way that is going to lead to a momentum of healthy redevelopment in the area. 

I have been pushing an Arts Development strategy in the Bon Air neighborhood. It is somewhat of a smart development in which we are trying to shape what happens.  It aims to link Bon Air with the robust artistic community in the Louisville area.  The current project is to build a stage in Farnsley Park, which is progressing. I would think such conversion of the property into such artistic use would be fantastic. 

 Again, kudos to Susan Thurston Bennett, she is definitely approaching this with passion. 


Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Bon Air Crime Analysis for September 2020 Up Some from August

This is an analysis for September,2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports


It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.




As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 49 total reports within the boundaries, but sis of them were runaways from 2300 Goldsmith Lane.  Removing those meant 43 relevant police reports.  This was a 26 percent over reports from August. 

As usual, the 40218 section had more reports with almost 70 percent.

Reports by Zip Code

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

 

40218

30

43

0.698

0.014

 

40220

13

43

0.302

0.014

 

 

The reports by zone reflected the zip codes. 

Reports by Zone

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Neighborhood

Bon Air

34

43

0.791

< .001

 

Highgate Springs

9

43

0.209

< .001

The following table in a slightly different format shows the reports by blocks. 


The following table ranks the most occurring crime reports. 

Type of Crime Reports

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

10

43

0.233

< .001

 

BURGLARY

4

43

0.093

< .001

 

DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS

1

43

0.023

< .001

 

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

2

43

0.047

< .001

 

OTHER

6

43

0.140

< .001

 

ROBBERY

1

43

0.023

< .001

 

THEFT/LARCENY

5

43

0.116

< .001

 

VANDALISM

2

43

0.047

< .001

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

10

43

0.233

< .001

 

WEAPONS

2

43

0.047

< .001


The assaults happened in the following locations:

 

Location of Assaults

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

BLOCK_ADDRESS

2200 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL

2

10

0.200

0.109

 

2900 BLOCK HIKES LN

3

10

0.300

0.344

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

2

10

0.200

0.109

 

3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

3700 BLOCK TAYLORSVILLE RD

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

 The following were where the Car break-ins were: 


Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

BLOCK_ADDRESS

2200 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

300 BLOCK CHANEL CT

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

3200 BLOCK AINSLIE WAY

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

3500 BLOCK TERRIER LN

2

10

0.200

0.109

 

3600 BLOCK ARGYLE LN

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY

1

10

0.100

0.021

 

BARDSTOWN RD / I 264 RAMP

2

10

0.200

0.109

Here was when they happened:

Dates of Car Break-Ins

Variable

Level

Counts 

Total 

Proportion 

p

DATE_REPORTED 

9/11/2020 12:17 

1

10

0.100

0.021 

 

9/12/2020 3:26

1

10

0.100

0.021 

 

9/12/2020 7:38

2

10

0.200

0.109 

 

9/15/2020 12:10 

1

10

0.100

0.021 

 

9/17/2020 13:46 

1

10

0.100

0.021 

 

9/17/2020 16:12 

1

10

0.100

0.021 

 

9/17/2020 5:40

1

10

0.100

0.021 

 

9/21/2020 15:22 

1

10

0.100

0.021 

 

9/23/2020 2:02

1

10

0.100

0.021 

I will note that two reports on 9/17/2020 were in two different places (2200 Hikes and 3400 Ainslie Way).  There did not appear to be a hard and fast pattern. 

Going back to locations, the following are the crime reports as to what happened at 2200 Hikes Lane:

Crime reports at 2200 Hikes Lane

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

BURGLARY

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

VANDALISM

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

1

5

0.200

0.375

 Then at 2900 Hikes Lane:  

Crime Reports at 2900 Hikes Lane

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

ASSAULT

3

5

0.600

BURGLARY

2

5

0.400

Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

 Then at 3300 Bardstown Rd: 

Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

2

4

0.500

1.000

 

OTHER

1

4

0.250

0.625

 

ROBBERY

1

4

0.250

0.625

 

 Then at 3500 Terrier Lane

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

THEFT/LARCENY

2

4

0.500

1.000

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

2

4

0.500

1.000

Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

 These four reports were all at the same time. 

 Comments:

I have had my questions about the increase of car break-ins.  They were spread out through the neighborhood and happened at different times.  They continued to be seen as crimes of opportunity.  If you leave your car unlocked and you leave stuff in it, it increases your likelihood of being a victim. 

I am thankful that it was not worse.  The homeless have persisted in the neighborhood panhandling. As noted in a previous post, we have had a homeless individual sleeping in front of a neighborhood business.  They appeared to have found it to be economically sufficient given that COVID-19 has thinned out downtown traffic and the lockdown measures have further discouraged the from. With many homeless individuals there is a prevalence of trespassing offenses, and we have not seen that. 

I also think that blockwatches are of continued effectiveness. There were no reports in Brookhaven manor and Bon Air Estates.  The efforts on Lisbon are also of lasting effectiveness. 

I hope that you continue to lock your cars and make sure your Ring or other doorbell  cameras are in operation.  Security devices discourage deviancy.  

Last, but not least, if you have not become a member of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association, we could really use your support.  Membership is $20.00 per household per year.  You can mail your membership fee to 

BANA 

PO Box 34262 

Louisville KY 40201. 

Thanks.