This is an analysis for April, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports
It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package. This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.
As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.
The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.
The disappointing matter to report is that police reports were up by 50 percent. There were 46 reports total for May and 69 reports for June (not including the six missing reports at 2300 Goldsmith Lane/Boys and Girls Haven)
It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package. This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.
As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.
The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.
The disappointing matter to report is that police reports were up by 50 percent. There were 46 reports total for May and 69 reports for June (not including the six missing reports at 2300 Goldsmith Lane/Boys and Girls Haven)
Police
Reports by Zip Code
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
ZIP_CODE
|
40218
|
41
|
69
|
0.594
|
0.148
|
||||||
40220
|
28
|
69
|
0.406
|
0.148
|
|||||||
As usual, the 40218 portion of the area had more reports with almost 60 percent of the reports. The 40220 section had 40 percent of the reports.
Police
Reports by Zone
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
ZONE
|
BON AIR
|
46
|
69
|
0.667
|
0.008
|
||||||
HIGHGATE SPRINGS
|
23
|
69
|
0.333
|
0.008
|
|||||||
The Bon Air section had about 67 percent of the reports while Highgate springs had 23 percent of the reports. The Bon Air Estates section had zero reports.
Crime
Types
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
CRIME_TYPE
|
ASSAULT
|
31
|
69
|
0.449
|
0.470
|
||||||
BURGLARY
|
8
|
69
|
0.116
|
< .001
|
|||||||
DISTURBING THE PEACE
|
3
|
69
|
0.043
|
< .001
|
|||||||
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS
|
1
|
69
|
0.014
|
< .001
|
|||||||
FRAUD
|
1
|
69
|
0.014
|
< .001
|
|||||||
HOMICIDE
|
1
|
69
|
0.014
|
< .001
|
|||||||
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
|
1
|
69
|
0.014
|
< .001
|
|||||||
OTHER
|
4
|
69
|
0.058
|
< .001
|
|||||||
ROBBERY
|
1
|
69
|
0.014
|
< .001
|
|||||||
THEFT/LARCENY
|
8
|
69
|
0.116
|
< .001
|
|||||||
VANDALISM
|
7
|
69
|
0.101
|
< .001
|
|||||||
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT
|
3
|
69
|
0.043
|
< .001
|
|||||||
Assault was the most common police report followed by burglary.
Where were the reports?
The 2200 block of Heather Lane had the most police reports of six reports. The 3300 block of Bardstown Rd and 3000 block of Talisman Rd both had five reports. The 2500 block of Meadow Dr had four reports. Several locations had three reports.
It does not mean that there was a high frequency of calls to 2200 Heather Lane. Actually, there was one incident on June 12 that had six different charges of assaults. On the other hand, the incidents at 3300 Bardstown Rd happened throughout the month.
Where Were the Assaults?
LOCATION
OF ASSAULTS
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
BLOCK_ADDRESS
|
2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN
|
6
|
31
|
0.194
|
< .001
|
||||||
2300 BLOCK HEATHER LN
|
2
|
31
|
0.065
|
< .001
|
|||||||
2300 BLOCK HIKES LN
|
2
|
31
|
0.065
|
< .001
|
|||||||
2500 BLOCK MASEMURE CT
|
1
|
31
|
0.032
|
< .001
|
|||||||
2500 BLOCK MEADOW DR
|
3
|
31
|
0.097
|
< .001
|
|||||||
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
|
2
|
31
|
0.065
|
< .001
|
|||||||
2900 BLOCK HIKES LN
|
1
|
31
|
0.032
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3000 BLOCK SOMBER WAY
|
1
|
31
|
0.032
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD
|
2
|
31
|
0.065
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3200 BLOCK STRATFORD AVE
|
1
|
31
|
0.032
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
|
1
|
31
|
0.032
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3300 BLOCK RADIANCE RD
|
1
|
31
|
0.032
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
|
1
|
31
|
0.032
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR
|
3
|
31
|
0.097
|
< .001
|
|||||||
BARDSTOWN RD / BASHFORD MANOR LN
|
1
|
31
|
0.032
|
< .001
|
|||||||
TAYLORSVILLE RD AT I264
|
3
|
31
|
0.097
|
< .001
|
|||||||
As was noted the matter of what happened on Heather Lane was on one day at one police call. Otherwise the assaults were spread out over both the Highgate Springs and Bon Air zones.
Where Were the Burglaries?
LOCATION
OF BURGLARIES
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Noted that the Burglaries were spread out throughout the neighborhood. It is noted that the quiet street of Somber Way was already getting more than its usual share of action. The reality about Somber Way's showing up in the numbers was actually only one incident on 7/1/2020 in which the burglary and the assault happened at the same time and it was not a pattern.
When Were the Burglaries?
DAYS
OF WEEKS BURGLARIES WERE REPORTED
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
Weekday
|
Friday
|
1
|
8
|
0.125
|
0.070
|
||||||
Monday
|
1
|
8
|
0.125
|
0.070
|
|||||||
Saturday
|
2
|
8
|
0.250
|
0.289
|
|||||||
Sunday
|
1
|
8
|
0.125
|
0.070
|
|||||||
Wednesday
|
3
|
8
|
0.375
|
0.727
|
|||||||
The Burglaries happened at different times of the month. So there does not appear to be a pattern.
The other topic to discuss was the eight (8) thefts since it was of a significant frequency. They happened in both businesses and residences across the neighborhood and at different times of the month. It does not appear that there was a pattern.
Vandalism
Vandalism appears to be making a comeback. It is summer and it is happening again.
LOCATIONS
OF VANDALISM
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
BLOCK_ADDRESS
|
2200 BLOCK HIKES LN
|
2
|
5
|
0.400
|
1.000
|
||||||
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
3700 BLOCK TAYLORSVILLE RD
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
The above picture is from the sound wall north of Commander Dr and Brockton Ln. There appears to be a group that have a made a variety of defacing and some of it is vulgar.
Other Comments
There was one incident on 6/27/20 that has been called a murder. It happened at the intersection of Bashford Manor and Bardstown Rd. It made the media if you are interested
I suppose that some sociological explanation can be made for the increase in assault calls related to people being stressed by the current state of the world and its stress. Three of the police calls had more than one particular assault charge filed simultaneously and it looks more significantly numerically than an actual increase in occurrence.
I am encouraged that the burglaries were not as high as they could be given all of the vagrancy that appears to be occurring around the neighborhood.
.
If you are considering a doorbell camera, they are becoming cheaper and readily available on Amazon and Heartland America (It is not a paid endorsement) . I think that they are a good deterrent. They can make our neighborhood even more unattractive to would be burglars.
Otherwise, I have to continue to credit the neighborhood watches being maintained in Brookfield Manor and Bon Air Estates. They are making a difference in their areas. There were no reports
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