Sunday, April 5, 2020

Bon Air Crime Analysis for March 2020. Reports were up nearly 85 percent

Before I begin the analysis I want to illuminate the sad and stupid behavior that happened to the Bon Air Library.  It appears that the "R's" are missing on the front of the building. 



Otherwise, this is an analysis for March, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports/resource/6d81fdf8-27e7-41ac-9ae4-1bfd8730f002 

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that requires some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   

In February there here were 46 reports within the boundaries in March there were 85 reports which was almost an 85 percent increase of reports. However, 18 of those were missing person reports from Boys Haven.  I learned that whenever a resident runs to a convenience store to get cigarettes and comes back they have to file a report.

Removing the missing person reports meant an adjusted total of 67 reports. 

ADJUSTED POLICE REPORTS BY ZIP CODE
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
ZIP_CODE
40218
39
67
0.582
0.222
 
40220
28
67
0.418
0.222
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The 40218 portion had 39 reports and the 40220 portion had 28 reports. 

The Majority of reports were at the 3300 Block of Bardstown Rd. Below is a frequency chart of the reports and their locations. 

POLICE REPORTS BY ADDRESS MARCH 2020
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
2200 BLOCK HIKES LN
3
67
0.045
< .001
 
2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN
3
67
0.045
< .001
 
2700 BLOCK SHARON WAY
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
3
67
0.045
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE
2
67
0.030
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
2900 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN
4
67
0.060
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD
3
67
0.045
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD
3
67
0.045
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK WEDGEWOOD WAY
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3100 BLOCK COMMANDER DR
2
67
0.030
< .001
 
3100 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3200 BLOCK RADIANCE RD
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3200 BLOCK STRATFORD AVE
2
67
0.030
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
18
67
0.269
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK RADIANCE RD
2
67
0.030
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK STRATFORD AVE
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK WILLOW WAY
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
2
67
0.030
< .001
 
3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD
2
67
0.030
< .001
 
3600 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3600 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
BARDSTOWN RD / I 264 RAMP
1
67
0.015
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The following is a breakdown of what happened at 3300 Bardstown Rd. 

There were more thefts/larcenies followed by fraud and assaults. 

TYPES OF CRIME AT 3300 BARDSTOWN RD IN MARCH 3300
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
CRIME_TYPE
ASSAULT
4
18
0.222
0.031
 
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS
1
18
0.056
< .001
 
FRAUD
4
18
0.222
0.031
 
OTHER
1
18
0.056
< .001
 
ROBBERY
1
18
0.056
< .001
 
THEFT/LARCENY
6
18
0.333
0.238
 
WEAPONS
1
18
0.056
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The convenience stores had the most going on of the different premises or locations.

LOCATIONS OF CRIMES AT 3300 BARDSTOWN RD IN MARCH 3300
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
PREMISE_TYPE
BANK / SAVINGS & LOAN
3
18
0.167
0.008
 
CONVENIENCE STORE
1
18
0.056
< .001
 
CYBERSPACE
1
18
0.056
< .001
 
DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE
1
18
0.056
< .001
 
HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.
3
18
0.167
0.008
 
OTHER / UNKNOWN
1
18
0.056
< .001
 
PARKING LOT / GARAGE
1
18
0.056
< .001
 
SERVICE / GAS STATION
7
18
0.389
0.481
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Since the hotel/motel still presents as of interest the following were the police reports there during March.

Police Reports at the Hotel/Motel Premise
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
CRIME_TYPE
THEFT/LARCENY
2
3
0.667
1.000
 
WEAPONS
1
3
0.333
1.000
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
Otherwise the most common police report for the month of March was theft/larceny, followed by assaults and then by vandalism.  

TYPES OF CRIME REPORTED IN MARCH 2020
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
CRIME_TYPE
ASSAULT
13
67
0.194
< .001
 
BURGLARY
4
67
0.060
< .001
 
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
FRAUD
6
67
0.090
< .001
 
OTHER
5
67
0.075
< .001
 
ROBBERY
1
67
0.015
< .001
 
THEFT/LARCENY
21
67
0.313
0.003
 
VANDALISM
11
67
0.164
< .001
 
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT
4
67
0.060
< .001
 
WEAPONS
1
67
0.015
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The thefts larcenies happened in the following locations.  
LOCATION OF THE THEFTS/LARCENIES BY BLOCK ADDRESS
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
2200 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
2900 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3100 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3200 BLOCK RADIANCE RD
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3200 BLOCK STRATFORD AVE
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
6
21
0.286
0.078
 
3300 BLOCK RADIANCE RD
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3600 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
1
21
0.048
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

As already discussed the majority of them happened at 3300 Bardstown Rd and then they were spread throughout the rest of the neighborhood. 

The following chart shows where the assaults were. 

LOCATION OF THE ASSAULTS BY BLOCK ADDRESS
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN
2
13
0.154
0.022
 
3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
3000 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
3100 BLOCK COMMANDER DR
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
4
13
0.308
0.267
 
3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
BARDSTOWN RD / I 264 RAMP
1
13
0.077
0.003
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

This also includes the police-involved shooting that made the media on 3/25/20.  

The following chart shows were the vandalism reports were made. 

LOCATION OF THE VANDALISM COMPLAINTS BY ADDRESS
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
2800 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3100 BLOCK COMMANDER DR
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3300 BLOCK RADIANCE RD
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3600 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN
1
11
0.091
0.012
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

They were spread throughout the neighborhood. 

The following chart shows where the burglaries were. 

LOCATION OF THE BURGLARIES BY BLOCK ADDRESS
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
4
0.250
0.625
 
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
1
4
0.250
0.625
 
2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE
1
4
0.250
0.625
 
3300 BLOCK WILLOW WAY
1
4
0.250
0.625
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The following chart shows where the car break-ins were. 

CAR BREAK-INS BY LOCATION
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2700 BLOCK SHARON WAY
1
4
0.250
0.625
 
3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD
1
4
0.250
0.625
 
3300 BLOCK STRATFORD AVE
1
4
0.250
0.625
 
3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD
1
4
0.250
0.625
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

It is otherwise hard to specify any particular patterns.   As I look at a few of the instances, I note that three of the reports on Boaires Ln appear to be from a domestic where someone just cannot take no for an answer and was stalking someone to the point of crossing other lines. That does not appear to be a general pattern.   However, I noted that two of the car break-ins happened on Thursday, March 19, 2020 and were reported within two hours of each other.

The Bon Air Neighborhood Association is not having a formal meeting in the normal sense due to the social distancing.  Otherwise, we are still in support of forming neighborhood watches such as the one in Brookfield Manor. They can be email groups or groups on Nextdoor.   

It is my opinion that there will be criminals taking advantage of people staying in their houses to break into cars.  Criminals do not follow laws and so please keep vigilant out there to lock cars and doors and to keep an eye out for what is happening on your street. .  






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