Monday, June 1, 2020

Regaining Our Sense of Community in Bon Air Amidst the Drama

I do not know about you . . . and maybe some will comment back, but the drama is tiring me out.  I have been quite interested in understanding drama for about 20 years.   I have what I call an academic interest in the subject, but right now everything going on is tiring me out and I am just wondering how we can move on to being a community again?

The best way to picture drama is that it is a triangle of at least three players.

 In drama there is an interaction where there is a persecutor who is accused of being hurtful, injurious, offense or making someone have some emotional discomfort.   There is the victim who is the one who claims to be hurt.  Then there is a rescuer trying to be protective.   However, in the interaction the roles change because

  • The victim can become the rescuer or the persecutor 
  • The persecutor can become the victim or the victim
  • The rescuer can become the victim or persecutor
There are two aspects to drama that make it tough to figure out: 
  1. There is always more to the story and
  2. There is always embellishment added for effect.  

Anyway, my current, favorite triangle that that you might be able appreciate is the average political campaign.  Where politicians attack their opponents while they rescue you, the victim also called the average voter.  Without taking sides, Amy McGrath and Mitch McConnell have one going on right now purely in their commercials.   They are calling each other your persecutor while making themselves out to be your rescuer.  

Anger is viral and social media has been a means its of transmission. 


Drama is an emotional matter.  Anger is the driver of it. Someone is angry at someone for something and they come into the triangle as the hurt victim, the righteous rescuer or the abusive persecutor.  


Anger is an impulsive emotion.  It is driven by adrenaline.  Angry people flush with adrenaline talk louder, faster, and are more likely going to do things they regret if they have a conscience. Anger is also contagious where people can empathize with someone else's anger or be annoyed by the negative vibes.  Anger is viral and I would say social media has been one its means of transmission in this world. 

Anyway, the most technical and complete book on drama is Stephen B Karpman,(2014)  A Game Free Life





Karpman created the above triangle and book gets pretty detailed but you are into such reading, it is very instructive, and it is available on Amazon (click here to see more).

The reason I am mentioning the book is that as a society we are now at what Karpman calls "Maximum Drama."   It takes four conditions:

  1. Increase the number of people
  2. Increase the distance and geography involved
  3. Increase the stakes and danger involved and,
  4. Increase the insolvability for everyone involved. (p50) 
At this time:
  • For the past several nights Louisville and other major cities across the United States are instituting emergency curfews because "peaceful demonstrations" have escalated into riots. 
  • People are blaming law enforcement of being aggressors when they are throwing things first at the police and violating the curfews. 
  • The original cause was supposed to be justice, but it escalated into property destruction
  • No one is going to say anything that is going to prove anything to anyone and people are only going to say things that annoy and offend each other.   

Do I have An Answer for the Drama?  No. But...

A minister told me that when you have a conflict, if you can maintain your composure for about a week the problem will subside.  The current drama as it exists will subside as the emotion goes down.

Maintaining your composure means staying calm and watching your tongue and getting your mind distracted with other things.  It takes a lot of strength and focus to maintain that self control that is composure.  We have to engage in self-care that rejuvenates us and gives us rest from the stresses.

We also have to move our minds to what else matters in our lives that we can do something about, which means to the first half of my headline: regaining our sense of community.  Covid19 and now the current set of riots has had us spending our attention and energy on those matters.

There are things around our neighborhood that need our attention and focus.  I am hoping that the Highgate Springs Neighborhood Association can get out and restore the magnificent garden at Furman and Taylorsville Rd.  I am hoping that the Bon Air Neighborhood Association can get back on track with the Arts Development strategy in some form or fashion.  I hope that you can get out and clean up around your street, and if we can get Operation Brightside rescheduled you will come out and be part of it.

Lastly, I hope that you would consider joining one of the neighborhood associations and focus on making the Bon Air Neighborhood one of the places to be.

I am pretty sure that we do not all agree on everything, but I believe that the Bon Air Neighborhood is a diverse neighborhood where people are accepting of each other.  I would like to think that we have strength in our diversity and together we can use the positive energy and opportunity to make this place even more of a great place to live.   

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Bon Air Crime Analysis for April 2020. Down 42.3 Percent from March.

This is an analysis for April, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.




As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were Eight (8) missing persons reports from 2300 Goldsmith Lane.  They were kids that ran from Boys and Girls Haven maybe to the store or maybe because they just did not want to be there. But Boys and Girls Haven has to call the police when they run. 

What mattered was that there were 48 (non-runaway) police reports for the month of April within the boundaries.  That is down from 85 reports in March. A reduction in 42 perscent 

Here are some of the relevant breakdowns.

There were 28 reports in the 40218 section and 19 in the 40220 section.  There were 39 reports in the Bon Air section and 8 in the Highgate Springs section.

3600 Green Meadows was the location with the most police reports. The usually whipping post of 3300 Bardstown Rd only had three reports.

Crimes at 3600 Green Meadows Drive
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
CRIME_TYPE
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
1
5
0.200
0.375
 
OTHER
1
5
0.200
0.375
 
THEFT/LARCENY
2
5
0.400
1.000
 
VANDALISM
1
5
0.200
0.375
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.


Saturday was the day of the week when most of the reports were made.  Almost twice as many reports were made on that day of the ween than any other

Day of Week

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
DAY OF WEEK
FRIDAY
6
47
0.128
< .001
 
MONDAY
8
47
0.170
< .001
 
SATURDAY
14
47
0.298
0.008
 
THURSDAY
6
47
0.128
< .001
 
TUESDAY
6
47
0.128
< .001
 
WEDNESDAY
7
47
0.149
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

It is significant that the crimes mostly happened in houses.

Where the Crimes Happened
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
PREMISE_TYPE
CYBERSPACE
1
47
0.021
< .001
 
DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE
1
47
0.021
< .001
 
DRUG STORE/DR`S OFFICE/HOSPITAL
1
47
0.021
< .001
 
HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY
1
47
0.021
< .001
 
OTHER / UNKNOWN
3
47
0.064
< .001
 
OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)
4
47
0.085
< .001
 
PARKING LOT / GARAGE
5
47
0.106
< .001
 
RESIDENCE / HOME
30
47
0.638
0.079
 
SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC)
1
47
0.021
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
It is significant that the houses were almost equally split between the zip codes.
The Location of Houses where Crime Reports Happened.
Descriptive Statistics
BLOCK_ADDRESS
 
40218
40220
Valid
14
16
Missing
0
0


So, even thought the Bon Air section had more reports, when it was divided by zip code more houses in the 40220 district were the sites of reports over houses in 40218.  The businesses were the significant difference in the number of reports between Bon Air and Highgate Springs.

The following chart shows what happened at residences in the neighborhood

What Kind of Crimes Happened in Residences

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
CRIME_TYPE
ASSAULT
6
30
0.200
0.001
 
BURGLARY
4
30
0.133
< .001
 
FRAUD
2
30
0.067
< .001
 
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
1
30
0.033
< .001
 
OTHER
5
30
0.167
< .001
 
ROBBERY
1
30
0.033
< .001
 
THEFT/LARCENY
5
30
0.167
< .001
 
VANDALISM
4
30
0.133
< .001
 
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT
2
30
0.067
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The following chart shows where the burglaries were.

Location of Burglaries In Residences

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK BASHFORD MANOR LN
1
5
0.200
0.375
 
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
1
5
0.200
0.375
 
2800 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
5
0.200
0.375
 
300 BLOCK CHANEL CT
1
5
0.200
0.375
 
3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD
1
5
0.200
0.375
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The following was where the assaults were at residences.

Location of Assaults In Residences

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN
1
9
0.111
0.039
 
2500 BLOCK MEADOW DR
1
9
0.111
0.039
 
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
1
9
0.111
0.039
 
2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE
3
9
0.333
0.508
 
3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD
1
9
0.111
0.039
 
3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD
1
9
0.111
0.039
 
3200 BLOCK BON AIR AVE
1
9
0.111
0.039
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

In fairness, two of the reports at 2900 Rio Rita were made at the same time.

The following is where the thefts and larcenies were overall

Location of Thefts/Larcenies In Residences

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
2600 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
2900 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3200 BLOCK COMMANDER DR
2
11
0.182
0.065
 
3200 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
1
11
0.091
0.012
 
3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
2
11
0.182
0.065
 
3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR
2
11
0.182
0.065
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The information does not include the drug-related shooting on April 23 at Downing and Hikes.  The database repeatedly does not show everything.

Otherwise, it is good news overall that crime reports were lower by over 40 percent, especially in light of the apparent increase in crime in Louisville Metro during the COVID19 lockdown.

It continues to be a good thing that many neighborhood residences have invested in Ring Doorbells and like devices.  They are a good deterrent to burglaries and other crimes.   Crime prevention is important in light of LMPD's more judicious response to situations to reduce the risk of exposure to COVID19.

When the Bon Air Neighborhood Association gets back together again, it will continue its support of the creation of Neighborhood Watches.  It's not vigilantism, it is citizen involvement to make our neighborhood a safer place.