Bon Air Crime Analysis for December 2021. Down 33.9 Percent from November

 

This is an analysis for December 2021 based on open data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.

As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   The limits of this analysis also include that it is limited to what LMPD actually puts on this report. 

There were 70 reports, which was a 33.9 percent decrease from November, which had 106 reports. 

I will run through the usual analyses and compare them with last month.

As usual, the "Bon Air" and the 40218 zones had the most reports of the respective categories.  

Zip Code
Variable				Level		Counts		Total		Proportion			p
ZIP_CODE				40218		50		70		0.714			< .001
				40220		20		70		0.286			< .001
Zone
Variable		Level							Counts		Total			Proportion			p
Zone		Bon Air							54		70			0.771			< .001
		Bon Air Estates							2		70			0.029			< .001
		Highgate Springs							14		70			0.200			< .001

 For comparison, the Bon Air zone had 75 reports and the Highgate Springs zone had 27 reports in November.  That is a decrease of 28 percent and 48 percent respectively. 

By Weekday:

Weekday
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Weekday		Friday		9		70		0.129		< .001
		Monday		18		70		0.257		< .001
		Saturday		9		70		0.129		< .001
		Sunday		7		70		0.100		< .001
		Thursday		12		70		0.171		< .001
		Tuesday		8		70		0.114		< .001
		Wednesday		7		70		0.100		< .001

The pattern was very different in that Thursdays in November had 24 reports which compared to 12 in December. 

This is a breakdown of what was reported on Mondays:

Police Reports on Mondays in December
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		2		18		0.111		0.001
		BURGLARY		1		18		0.056		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		3		18		0.167		0.008
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		1		18		0.056		< .001
		OTHER		7		18		0.389		0.481
		THEFT/LARCENY		1		18		0.056		< .001
		VANDALISM		1		18		0.056		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		2		18		0.111		0.001

Categories of Crime Reports

The "Other" category was the largest category this in December, which was up by one from November.  

Categories of Crime Reports
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		16		70		0.229		< .001
		BURGLARY		2		70		0.029		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		4		70		0.057		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		6		70		0.086		< .001
		OTHER		20		70		0.286		< .001
		SEX CRIMES		1		70		0.014		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		9		70		0.129		< .001
		VANDALISM		7		70		0.100		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		5		70		0.071		< .001

I will put it here that the one "Sex Crimes" report was that of sexual abuse in the 3600 block of Kings Highway.  The victim was under the age of 12. 

The Other Reports:

Breakdown of the "Other Reports"
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		ACCIDENTAL SHOOTING (OTHER THAN HUNTING)		1		20		0.050		< .001
		ANY NON CRIMINAL CHARGE NOT COVERED BY THESE CODES		1		20		0.050		< .001
		DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE)		1		20		0.050		< .001
		DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT		3		20		0.150		0.003
		INJURED PERSON REQUIRING POLICE REPORT		1		20		0.050		< .001
		LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE		2		20		0.100		< .001
		MISSING PERSONS		11		20		0.550		0.824

There were some of the same other types as in November, but there was one death by overdose at a residence at 3300 Bardstown Road

The next highest category was Assaults (n=16), which were actually down by 13 or 44 percent from November (n=29).  Here is where they are

Location of Assaults
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		200 BLOCK FLANDERS CT		1		16		0.063		< .001
		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		1		16		0.063		< .001
		2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN		3		16		0.188		0.021
		2500 BLOCK PROCTOR KNOTT DR		1		16		0.063		< .001
		2700 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		16		0.063		< .001
		3000 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD		2		16		0.125		0.004
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		3		16		0.188		0.021
		3300 BLOCK NOE WAY		1		16		0.063		< .001
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		16		0.063		< .001
		3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		1		16		0.063		< .001
		FURMAN BLVD / TAYLORSVILLE RD		1		16		0.063		< .001

Rosedale Blvd is normally a quiet place and the two assault charges were made in the same event.  The three reports at Liverpool were in two events on 12/2/21 and 12/23/21.  Both the Liverpool events happened in the apartments. 

Burglaries:

There were only two burglaries in December. They were both in the southeast portion of the neighborhood. One was in a garage part of the condos at Algiers/Flanders/ Chanel Ct. The other was in a home at 3300 Noe Way. This was down from seven burglaries in November. 

Car Thefts and Car Break-In's 

Location of Car Thefts
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2300 BLOCK HIKES LN		2		6		0.333		0.687
		2800 BLOCK SHEILA DR		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3300 BLOCK NOE WAY		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		6		0.167		0.219
		3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR		1		6		0.167		0.219
Car thefts roughly stayed the same.  There were five in November.  One car theft was in the Bon Air Estates zone, but the rest happened at the edges of the neighborhood.

Location of Car Break-Ins
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2300 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		5		0.200		0.375
		2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE		1		5		0.200		0.375
		2800 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		5		0.200		0.375
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		2		5		0.400		1.000

Overall, car-related thefts were reduced by 64 percent from November (n=14).  One of the break-ins took place near the Bon Air Manor shopping center.  

Usual Focus on 3300 Bardstown Rd.

It was unusual that the location with the most reports was not Bardstown Road.  It was actually 2300 Goldsmith Lane (with all the runaways from angry kids) followed by 3400 Bardstown Rd.   Nevertheless, The hotel/motel had an "accidental shooting," an assault, and some other event that required police intervention. 

With some redundancy 3400 Bardstown Rd, which is very much connected to 3300 Bardstown Rd, There was one assault report, two drug-related busts, two car break-ins, and one car theft. 

I have continued to have a question about how much "houseless" individuals contribute to the crime numbers in this area and I have not come to any conclusions.  When I was at one of the Thorntons, and there was a group of them panhandling outside the door.  I talked with one of the clerks who said that they are coming in and shoplifting.  With the concentration of panhandlers and houseless up and down Bardstown Road, my assumption was that there would have been an increase in nuisance and petty crimes in retail situations, but with covid, the police have not been able to respond. 

Overall there has been a reduction in police reports from November.  It is noticeable that there was a reduction in the number of assaults.  It hopefully leads to a further reduction over the rising trend in September through November. 

Well ...Covid Did it Again!

Well, the Bon Air Neighborhood Association meeting that was going to be held 1/10/2022 at 6:30pm at the Bon Air Library has had to be moved to Zoom due to the LPFL covid measures.  If you are reading this before then,  you can join it as we are scheduled to have District 8 Rep Cassie Armstrong, Jeff Noble (Brent Ackerson's legislative assistant) Neal Turpin (candidate for state representative), and a representative from LMPD's Sixth Division to talk about current trends.

Without sounding like a commercial for Zoom.  you just have to copy this link into your browser.

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86876553889?pwd=NVljQUkwQi9BSzdUcmZ6WnB4V2RQdz09

You then just have to enter a passcode of 367685. You do not have to have a camera to see the proceedings. 

Otherwise, if you have a smartphone, you can download the Zoom app  enter the following

Meeting ID: 868 7655 3889
Passcode: 367685

Otherwise, If you have not joined, please consider joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association  We seek to be an effective advocate for the neighborhood and are excited that our project of the Farnsley Park stage coming to fruition in 2022, but our work is far from done.  We would love your interest and involvement. 

The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join. 

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here. 

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8

Come Meet Cassie Armstrong Metro Council District 8 Rep at the Bon Air Neighborhood Association Meeting Monday, January 10, 2022

There will be several guest speakers including Louisville Metro Council District 8 Representative Cassie Armstrong at the Bon Air Neighborhood Association Meeting, Monday, January 10, 2022, in the Bon Air Library meeting room from 6:30pm to 8:00pm. 

Parts of the Bon Air Neighborhood (primarily Brookfield Manor) and the totality of the Bon Air Estates Neighborhood Association area were moved into District 8 at the beginning of 2022. 

Other speakers at this meeting will include Jeff Noble, Legislative Assistant to District 26 Metro Council Representative Brent Ackerson, Neal Turpin, democratic candidate for state house district 30, and a representative from LMPD's Sixth Division. 

At the end of the meeting, there will be an election for officers for 2022 as per organization bylaws. 

The meeting is open to the general public and masks are required in accordance with library policy. 

Highgate Springs Neighborhood Association is Active Again.

On December 15, 2021, I reported in this blog that the Highgate Springs Neighborhood Association had been dissolved as per public records at www.sos.ky.gov. 

It became in good standing again with the Commonwealth of Kentucky as an active organization effective December 31, 2021.  

The Highgate Springs Sign was Taken and Maybe it is Time for a New Beginning.

 

In my first run of this blog on the Louisville Mojo website between 2009 and 2012, I pulled no punches.  I was critical and I think that I definitely instigated drama because I stood for my view of how things should be. 

Mind you, I kind of enjoyed researching different subjects and issues, and that I attracted the ire of the Yaldos, the Michigan-based family who still own the "Budgetel" formerly called the Economy Inn.  While I give far more credit to Steve Magre and Patrick Carrico for pushing reform of the aged hotel, I would like to think I was a small part of the change through the blog by demonstrating how the edifice was way beyond its normal life cycle.  

When I resurrected the Bon Air Observer Blog in January 2019, I decided that it was going to be a kinder, gentler blog that sought to be positive and informative and reflect the agenda of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. 

I may look like I am breaking from that niceness and stepping on some toes with this post. Apologies in advance, but I am reporting some facts. 

However, first, I wish to grieve that the Highgate Springs sign was recently taken.  Raymond Fehr, who has been President of Highgate Springs Neighborhood Association, suggested on Facebook that scrappers took it.  I agree with his suggestion.  I am hoping that the scrappers are caught. 

The sign definitely added a touch of class to the Furman/Taylorsville Road intersection. 

Historically, it was a bit problematic because the Department of Public Safety required it to be of a certain construction to be less of a danger to the public should someone run into it.   Well, it got run down (I think three times)  You can tell from the picture that some of the rods were bent because of the cars. 

Brent Ackerson was generous in repairing it.  Then the Highgate Springs board had a good solution to the cars running it down when they put large slabs of rock on their sides and that solved that problem.  The organization had fixed a nice garden in front of it and they tended the area well.  It was one of the cleanest intersections in Louisville for a time. It was definitely an expression of civic pride. 

Now it is gone, and now, the Highgate Springs Neighborhood Association is officially dissolved too.  That is too bad, but maybe it is time for a new beginning.   

www.sos.ky.gov

In light of these two realities, I would like to make two suggestions.  

First, Merge the remnant of the Highgate Springs Association into the Bon Air Neighborhood Association.  BANA's bylaws were already changed in April 2019 to revise who can be a member and the hard boundaries set by the now-defunct Department of Neighborhoods were effaced.   

Second, I suggest that we build a different sign at the intersection of Kings Highway and Furman that includes a brick base like this one on the island at 4200 Norbourne Blvd in St Matthews.

  

I think that this construction would still be aesthetically pleasing, more permanent, and less likely to be stolen by scrappers.  This intersection south of the site of the old sign would be a safer site. 

That being said, I welcome the people in the area that had been part of the Highgate Springs Neighborhood Association's district to join the Bon Air Neighborhood Association.   After all, when you look at the Encyclopedia of Louisville, Bon Air historically has the following boundaries:

• Furman on the east
• Hikes Lane on the south
• Bardstown Road on the west
• The Watterson Expressway/Taylorsville Road on the north. 

I think that together we can do some great things in the future and we would love to have you join us. 

The next meeting of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association will be Monday, January 10, 2022, in the Bon Air Library meeting room at 6:30 pm.