The Bon Air Observer

Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Bon Air Crime Analysis for July 2021. Down a Little Again Overall, but Up in Highgate Springs.

This is an analysis for July 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package. This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.

As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.

There were 51 reports made by LMPD, down from the 53 in June. There were the usual trends, but it was significant that the Highgate Springs zone had an increase in reports.

Here are the usual breakdowns.

The 40218 area and the Bon Air zone had the higher number of reports.

Crime Reports by Zip Code


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
ZIP_CODE	40218	36	51	0.706	0.005
	40220	15	51	0.294	0.005

Crime Reports by Zone
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
Zone	Bon Air	34	51	0.667	0.024
	Bon Air Estates	1	51	0.020	< .001
	Highgate Springs	16	51	0.314	0.011

But again the Highgate Springs had a higher number percentage of cases. This is not the highest number of cases this year as January had 17 reports, but there were

9 reports in June
13 reports in May
12 reports in April
9 reports in March
14 reports in February

I think that it is due to an increase in thefts/larcenies in that zone.

Thefts/Larcenies in Highgate Springs


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2800 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	5	0.200	0.375
	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	5	0.200	0.375
	3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD	2	5	0.400	1.000
	3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD	1	5	0.200	0.375

Otherwise, for the whole neighborhood, it was a multi-modal trend in the number of reports by weekday in that Mondays and Thursdays had the most reports.

Crime Reports by weekday

With regard to overall crime reports, assaults were the most common.

Here is a table for those of you who like clear numbers:

Reports by Crime Type
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
CRIME_TYPE	ASSAULT	13	51	0.255	< .001
	BURGLARY	1	51	0.020	< .001
	DISTURBING THE PEACE	1	51	0.020	< .001
	FRAUD	1	51	0.020	< .001
	MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT	1	51	0.020	< .001
	OTHER	11	51	0.216	< .001
	ROBBERY	2	51	0.039	< .001
	THEFT/LARCENY	10	51	0.196	< .001
	VANDALISM	5	51	0.098	< .001
	VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT	6	51	0.118	< .001

The assaults happened throughout the neighborhood, but mostly at 3300 Bardstown.

Location of Assaults


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN	1	13	0.077	0.003
	2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT	2	13	0.154	0.022
	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	13	0.077	0.003
	2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE	1	13	0.077	0.003
	3000 BLOCK RADIANCE RD	1	13	0.077	0.003
	3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	5	13	0.385	0.581
	3300 BLOCK NOE WAY	1	13	0.077	0.003
	I264E AT BARDSTOWN RD	1	13	0.077	0.003

The larcenies were the next most common report.

Location of Thefts/Larcenies


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2800 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	10	0.100	0.021
	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	1	10	0.100	0.021
	3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD	2	10	0.200	0.109
	3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	3	10	0.300	0.344
	3300 BLOCK WELLINGMOOR AVE	1	10	0.100	0.021
	3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD	1	10	0.100	0.021
	3700 BLOCK MINA TER	1	10	0.100	0.021

There were 10 "Other" reports. These were what they were.

Other Crime reports
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
UOR_DESC	DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT	2	11	0.182	0.065
	LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE	3	11	0.273	0.227
	MISSING PERSONS	5	11	0.455	1.000
	RECOVERY OF STOLEN PROPERTY	1	11	0.091	0.012

The missing person reports as usual were at 2300 Goldsmith Lane.

We are always interested in car break-ins and car thefts.

Location of Car Break-Ins/Thefts


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN	2	7	0.286	0.453
	2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT	1	7	0.143	0.125
	3000 BLOCK WEDGEWOOD WAY	2	7	0.286	0.453
	3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	2	7	0.286	0.453

The report at 2300 block of Terrier was the actual theft of a car. The other three locations were two reports at the same time that included taking the car tags in addition to breaking into the cars.

As usual, the 3300 block of Bardstown was the location with the most reports with 23.5 percent.

Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
CRIME_TYPE	ASSAULT	5	12	0.417	0.774
	DISTURBING THE PEACE	1	12	0.083	0.006
	OTHER	2	12	0.167	0.039
	THEFT/LARCENY	3	12	0.250	0.146
	VANDALISM	1	12	0.083	0.006

Here are the premises of the reports

Premises of Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
PREMISE_TYPE	CONVENIENCE STORE	1	12	0.083	0.006
	HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY	1	12	0.083	0.006
	HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.	3	12	0.250	0.146
	OTHER / UNKNOWN	1	12	0.083	0.006
	OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)	3	12	0.250	0.146
	PARKING LOT / GARAGE	3	12	0.250	0.146

The hotel/motel had 1) a domestic violence call, 2) an assault call and 3) a theft/larceny call. They happened on different days.

Other notes:

There was one burglary from a garage at 2800 Hikes Lane.
There was one robbery report at 3100 Wedgewood Way, by or in Farnsley Park on 7/19/2021. It looks like it was an attempted robbery.
At 2300 Terrier Lane, where there was a murder back in May, besides the car theft there was a domestic violence call and a report of an assault. They happened at different times/dates.

Otherwise, I want to remind you that Seneca High School will be open for real in a few weeks. There has been a trend to see increased car thefts in the morning when people are warming up their vehicles and leaving the doors open.

I also hope you join one of the neighborhood associations in your zone but regardless you are welcome to join the Bon Air Neighborhood Association.

The Bon Air Neighborhood Association definitely could use your support.

The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join.

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here.

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8

Saturday, July 10, 2021

Bon Air Crime Analysis for June 2021, Down 23 Percent from May

This is an analysis for June 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

There were 53 reports made by LMPD, 23.18 percent down from the 69 in June.

Here are the usual breakdowns. The 40218 area as usual had more of the reports.

Reports by Zip Code
Variable		Level	Counts	Total		Proportion			p
ZIP_CODE		40218	38	53		0.717			0.002
		40220	15	53		0.283			0.002

The Bon Air zone had 44 or 83 percent of the reports while the Highgate Springs zone had nine or 17 percent of the reports.
Reports by Zone
Variable	Level				Counts		Total	Proportion		p
Zone	Bon Air				44		53	0.830		< .001
	Highgate Springs				9		53	0.170		< .001

The Bon Air Estates zone again had no reports.

The 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had the most reports.

Reports by Block Address
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN	5	53	0.094	< .001
	2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN	3	53	0.057	< .001
	2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE	2	53	0.038	< .001
	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	5	53	0.094	< .001
	3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	8	53	0.151	< .001
	3500 BLOCK TERRIER LN	2	53	0.038	< .001
	3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR	2	53	0.038	< .001
	3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY	4	53	0.075	< .001
	3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY	2	53	0.038	< .001
	3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	4	53	0.075	< .001

The 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had two assaults, four thefts, and two cases of vandalism. The only report at the hotel was vandalism.

With regard to the weekday breakdown, the reports were spread fairly evenly throughout the week.

Reports by Weekday
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
Weekday	Friday	7	53	0.132	< .001
	Monday	8	53	0.151	< .001
	Saturday	8	53	0.151	< .001
	Sunday	9	53	0.170	< .001
	Thursday	8	53	0.151	< .001
	Tuesday	6	53	0.113	< .001
	Wednesday	7	53	0.132	< .001

With regard to crime type, there were far more assault reports (35.8) than any other type of crime.

Reports by Crime Type

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

0.358

0.053

BURGLARY

0.038

< .001

FRAUD

0.019

< .001

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

0.075

< .001

OTHER

0.170

< .001

ROBBERY

0.019

< .001

THEFT/LARCENY

0.208

< .001

VANDALISM

0.075

< .001

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

0.038

< .001

Where were the assaults? All over

Location of Assaults
Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN	2	19	0.105	< .001
	2500 BLOCK MASEMURE CT	1	19	0.053	< .001
	2500 BLOCK PROCTOR KNOTT DR	1	19	0.053	< .001
	2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE	1	19	0.053	< .001
	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	2	19	0.105	< .001
	3300 BLOCK ALLISON WAY	1	19	0.053	< .001
	3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	2	19	0.105	< .001
	3400 BLOCK ALLISON WAY	1	19	0.053	< .001
	3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR	1	19	0.053	< .001
	3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY	4	19	0.211	0.019
	3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD	3	19	0.158	0.004

It was interesting that the 3600 Block of Johnston in the Highgate Springs had the most of the assaults. They happened on different days (6/11, 6/13, 6/14, 6/25) and were all DVO/EPO violations.

Car-related crimes

My interest was piqued by a news feature story on WLKY/Channel 32 about an increase in car thefts. (https://www.wlky.com/article/its-100-preventable-lmpd-seeing-more-car-thefts-where-key-fobs-were-left-inside-vehicles/36961521) The story essentially led with LMPD saying that these are 100 percent preventable. There were 24 car thefts in Middletown and Hurstbourne in the month of June and 16 of those thefts were in one week. Furthermore 12 of the cars had the keys/fobs in them.

Well, what happened in Bon Air? There were four car thefts and two car break-ins.

Location of Car Thefts and Break-ins


Variable	Level	Counts	Total	Proportion	p
BLOCK_ADDRESS	2900 BLOCK HIKES LN	2	6	0.333	0.687
	3500 BLOCK AUTUMN WAY	1	6	0.167	0.219
	3500 BLOCK TERRIER LN	1	6	0.167	0.219
	3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR	1	6	0.167	0.219
	3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY	1	6	0.167	0.219

Two car thefts were out of a parking lot at 2900 Hikes Lane. One was out of the service station and the other was from a "garage."

Two other car thefts were at 3500 Autumn Lane and the other car theft the next street over on 3500 Terrier Lane. They were one day apart. That could be a pattern.

Otherwise, there were two car break-ins. One car break-in was in the Green Meadows and one was at 3600 Windward Way. Bon Air was not as bad as Middletown or Hurstbourne in this case.

As stated previously in some of my other posts, good crime prevention is doing our part in Louisville Metro given all the news stories about how stretched police resources are. Assaults are one matter that is what I will call an existential matter, but locking cars, not keeping valuables in cars, installing doorbell cameras, and alarm systems are all basic crime prevention that I think is making a difference. Crime prevention discourages crimes of opportunity. I also think with us hopefully coming out of the Covid-19 winter we might be able to get some block watches going to help further prevent crime. At least June was a better month.

I also hope you join one of the neighborhood associations in your zone but regardless you are welcome to join the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here.

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8