Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Bon Air Crime Analysis for February 2020. Reports are Slightly Down.

This is an analysis for February, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports/resource/6d81fdf8-27e7-41ac-9ae4-1bfd8730f002 

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that requires some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.

As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   

The missing person reports at the 2300 block of Goldsmith Lane were removed. Otherwise, there were 46 reports within the boundaries.   There were 28 reports in the 40218 portion and 18 in the 40220 area. 
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
ZIP_CODE
40218
28
46
0.609
 
40220
18
46
0.391
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The following table shows the days of the week and what types of crimes were reported:

DAYS OF THE WEEK AND TYPES OF CRIME
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
WEEKDAY
FRIDAY
6
46
0.130
< .001
 
MONDAY
7
46
0.152
< .001
 
SATURDAY
7
46
0.152
< .001
 
SUNDAY
3
46
0.065
< .001
 
THURSDAY
8
46
0.174
< .001
 
TUESDAY
9
46
0.196
< .001
 
WEDNESDAY
6
46
0.130
< .001
CRIME_TYPE
ASSAULT
12
46
0.261
0.002
 
BURGLARY
2
46
0.043
< .001
 
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS
2
46
0.043
< .001
 
FRAUD
3
46
0.065
< .001
 
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
4
46
0.087
< .001
 
OTHER
9
46
0.196
< .001
 
THEFT/LARCENY
7
46
0.152
< .001
 
VANDALISM
2
46
0.043
< .001
 
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT
5
46
0.109
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Tuesday was the day when the most police calls were made.  The most frequent type crime was assault.  The "other" reports included one domestic-violence report, but were otherwise the serving of a MIW and two missing person reports. 

 The most common place for crime/police reports were residents. 
LOCATIONS OF POLICE REPORTS

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
PREMISE_TYPE
COMMERCIAL / OFFICE BUILDING
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
CONVENIENCE STORE
2
46
0.043
< .001
 
CYBERSPACE
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
GROCERY / SUPERMARKET
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY
5
46
0.109
< .001
 
HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.
2
46
0.043
< .001
 
OTHER / UNKNOWN
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)
3
46
0.065
< .001
 
PARKING LOT / GARAGE
3
46
0.065
< .001
 
RESIDENCE / HOME
21
46
0.457
0.659
 
RESTAURANT
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
SCHOOL - ELEMENTARY / SECONDARY
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
SERVICE / GAS STATION
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC)
2
46
0.043
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The block addresses of the crime reports are in the following table.  The 2700 block of Hikes Lane and the 3600 block of Stanton Blvd had the most reports with three each. 
Block Addresses of Crimes in Residences February 2020

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK BASHFORD MANOR LN
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT
2
21
0.095
< .001
 
2700 BLOCK HIKES LN
3
21
0.143
0.001
 
2700 BLOCK MAXON DR
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK MEADOW DR
2
21
0.095
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK ROSALEE AVE
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3200 BLOCK ALLISON WAY
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3200 BLOCK WELLINGMOOR AVE
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK TERRIER LN
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3500 BLOCK RAMONA AVE
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD
3
21
0.143
0.001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The reports at 3600 Stanton Blvd were all on one day and were domestic disturbance/violence issues. Also, the three reports at 2700 Hikes lane were simultaneously made at one time and appear to be part of one event at a residence.  

 Assaults were the most common type of police reports made at residences.
Crime types in Bon Air Residences February 2020
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
CRIME_TYPE
ASSAULT
8
21
0.381
0.383
 
BURGLARY
2
21
0.095
< .001
 
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
OTHER
5
21
0.238
0.027
 
THEFT/LARCENY
2
21
0.095
< .001
 
VANDALISM
1
21
0.048
< .001
 
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT
2
21
0.095
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.


The assaults happened at the following locations of residences. 
Block Addresses of the Assaults in Bon Air Residences

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT
1
8
0.125
0.070
 
2700 BLOCK HIKES LN
2
8
0.250
0.289
 
2800 BLOCK MEADOW DR
2
8
0.250
0.289
 
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
1
8
0.125
0.070
 
3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD
2
8
0.250
0.289
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The 3300 block of Bardstown Road continues to be the location of the most police reports in the neighborhood with 10 reports. 
POLICE REPORTS BY ADDRESS

Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
BLOCK_ADDRESS
2200 BLOCK BASHFORD MANOR LN
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
2200 BLOCK GERALD CT
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
2200 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
2200 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT
3
46
0.065
< .001
 
2700 BLOCK HIKES LN
3
46
0.065
< .001
 
2700 BLOCK MAXON DR
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL
2
46
0.043
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK MEADOW DR
3
46
0.065
< .001
 
2800 BLOCK ROSALEE AVE
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
2900 BLOCK HIKES LN
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3000 BLOCK TALISMAN RD
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3200 BLOCK ALLISON WAY
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3200 BLOCK WELLINGMOOR AVE
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
10
46
0.217
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3300 BLOCK TERRIER LN
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3500 BLOCK BROCKTON LN
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN
2
46
0.043
< .001
 
3500 BLOCK RAMONA AVE
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD
3
46
0.065
< .001
 
3700 BLOCK TAYLORSVILLE RD
1
46
0.022
< .001
 
BARDSTOWN RD AT I264
2
46
0.043
< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The JASP software does allow sectioning out variables by value and so it was possible to narrow what happened there.  In this case the events at 3300 Bardstown were combined with 2200 Goldsmith Lane and I-264 since it is a unified business area.

Police Reports at 2200 Goldsmith Ln/3300 Bardstown Rd/I-264
Binomial Test
Variable
Level
Counts
Total
Proportion
p
CRIME_TYPE
ASSAULT
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS
2
13
0.154
0.022
 
FRAUD
2
13
0.154
0.022
 
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
3
13
0.231
0.092
 
OTHER
2
13
0.154
0.022
 
THEFT/LARCENY
3
13
0.231
0.092
PREMISE_TYPE
CONVENIENCE STORE
2
13
0.154
0.022
 
CYBERSPACE
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY
2
13
0.154
0.022
 
HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.
2
13
0.154
0.022
 
PARKING LOT / GARAGE
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
RESIDENCE / HOME
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
SERVICE / GAS STATION
1
13
0.077
0.003
 
SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC)
2
13
0.154
0.022
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

The reports were spread out among premise types and crime types.  There is no one pattern that appears to stick out.

 I have anecdotal information that a car window was shot out on Lisbon but there was no police report in the database. 

 The Bon Air Neighborhood Association continues to promote the idea of Neighborhood Watches.  They appear to be quite effective where they are active.  We will bring up the topic at our General Membership Meeting on Monday, March 9, 2020 at 6:30 pm at Buechel Park Baptist Church, 2403 Hikes Lane.  . 





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Sunday, February 23, 2020

Bon Air Housing Values: Rentals in Bon Air and Their Locations

This is the fifth in a series of posts about housing values in the historic Bon Air Neighborhood.as defined by the following boundaries: Furman Blvd on the east, Hikes Lane on the south, Bardstown Road on the East, and the Watterson Expressway/Taylorsville Rd on the North.

The database for this research was created from the Jefferson County Property Valuation Administrator (PVA) website and the Lojic.org website.  Both have similar data, but the PVA site could be pasted into an Excel file. The database was compiled between February 2019 and December 2019. The information was subject to some change based on property sales and re-evaluations.

The statistical software that is being used for the analysis is JASP which is an open source program created by the University of Amsterdam.

This particular post is subject to more interpretation given the data sources.  Understanding what single family homes precisely are rentals is not possible.  There were some houses that were obviously rentals as the owner was a limited liability corporation (LLC).  Some homes were owned by trusts that for the purposes of this study are being called "Unknown."   Early in the data collection in 2019, the PVA had open access to the detailed information that included the "contact address" for the property. (That access ended when reassessment time was over.)  

This particular variable was akin to what researchers call a "convenience sample" because some anecdotal evidence was used regarding known rental properties.  It was evident that the contact address was not the Bon Air property itself, which suggests that the property was a rental.  It is likely that there are more rental properties than could clearly be identified. 

Anyway, according to the database there are 229 properties or 11.6 percent of the single-family homes in the Bon Air Neighborhood boundaries that are either owned by LLC's or trusts.  For the record, one of the single-family homes on Hikes Lane is a business.  One was foreclosed at the time of the collection and its current status was not clarified. .    




The Bon Air zone is clearly the area with the most rentals with 139 properties that were either owned by LLC's or Trusts.  The Highgate Springs zone has 76 properties that are either rentals or owned by trusts.  The Bon Air Estates has 14 properties . 

The last subject to explore in this post is: What are the streets where the rentals are?  (If the table is a little small for your eyes, you can press [ctrl] and move your mouse wheel forward to zoom). Talisman Road in Highgate Springs and Terrier Lane in Bon Air tied for having the most rentals or possible rentals with 16. Meadow Lane (Bon Air), Stanton Blvd (Highgate Springs) , and Rio Rita Avenue (Bon Air) tied for second with 12. Doreen Way and Boaires Lane tied for third with nine.


Next week I will further discuss if there are any landlords who own multiple homes in the neighborhood. 


  
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