Sunday, January 9, 2022

Bon Air Crime Analysis for December 2021. Down 33.9 Percent from November

 

This is an analysis for December 2021 based on open data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   The limits of this analysis also include that it is limited to what LMPD actually puts on this report. 

There were 70 reports, which was a 33.9 percent decrease from November, which had 106 reports. 

I will run through the usual analyses and compare them with last month.

As usual, the "Bon Air" and the 40218 zones had the most reports of the respective categories.  

Zip Code

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

ZIP_CODE

40218

50

70

0.714

< .001

 

40220

20

70

0.286

< .001

 

 

Zone

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Zone

Bon Air

54

70

0.771

< .001

 

Bon Air Estates

2

70

0.029

< .001

 

Highgate Springs

14

70

0.200

< .001

 
 For comparison, the Bon Air zone had 75 reports and the Highgate Springs zone had 27 reports in November.  That is a decrease of 28 percent and 48 percent respectively. 

By Weekday:

 

Weekday

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Weekday

Friday

9

70

0.129

< .001

 

Monday

18

70

0.257

< .001

 

Saturday

9

70

0.129

< .001

 

Sunday

7

70

0.100

< .001

 

Thursday

12

70

0.171

< .001

 

Tuesday

8

70

0.114

< .001

 

Wednesday

7

70

0.100

< .001


The pattern was very different in that Thursdays in November had 24 reports which compared to 12 in December. 

This is a breakdown of what was reported on Mondays:

Police Reports on Mondays in December

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

2

18

0.111

0.001

 

BURGLARY

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS

3

18

0.167

0.008

 

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

OTHER

7

18

0.389

0.481

 

THEFT/LARCENY

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

VANDALISM

1

18

0.056

< .001

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

2

18

0.111

0.001


Categories of Crime Reports

The "Other" category was the largest category this in December, which was up by one from November.  

Categories of Crime Reports

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

16

70

0.229

< .001

 

BURGLARY

2

70

0.029

< .001

 

DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS

4

70

0.057

< .001

 

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

6

70

0.086

< .001

 

OTHER

20

70

0.286

< .001

 

SEX CRIMES

1

70

0.014

< .001

 

THEFT/LARCENY

9

70

0.129

< .001

 

VANDALISM

7

70

0.100

< .001

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

5

70

0.071

< .001


I will put it here that the one "Sex Crimes" report was that of sexual abuse in the 3600 block of Kings Highway.  The victim was under the age of 12. 

The Other Reports:

Breakdown of the "Other Reports"

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

UOR_DESC

ACCIDENTAL SHOOTING (OTHER THAN HUNTING)

1

20

0.050

< .001

 

ANY NON CRIMINAL CHARGE NOT COVERED BY THESE CODES

1

20

0.050

< .001

 

DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE)

1

20

0.050

< .001

 

DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT

3

20

0.150

0.003

 

INJURED PERSON REQUIRING POLICE REPORT

1

20

0.050

< .001

 

LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE

2

20

0.100

< .001

 

MISSING PERSONS

11

20

0.550

0.824



There were some of the same other types as in November, but there was one death by overdose at a residence at 3300 Bardstown Road

The next highest category was Assaults (n=16), which were actually down by 13 or 44 percent from November (n=29).  Here is where they are

Location of Assaults

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

BLOCK_ADDRESS

200 BLOCK FLANDERS CT

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN

3

16

0.188

0.021

 

2500 BLOCK PROCTOR KNOTT DR

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

2700 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

3000 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD

2

16

0.125

0.004

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

3

16

0.188

0.021

 

3300 BLOCK NOE WAY

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

FURMAN BLVD / TAYLORSVILLE RD

1

16

0.063

< .001

Rosedale Blvd is normally a quiet place and the two assault charges were made in the same event.  The three reports at Liverpool were in two events on 12/2/21 and 12/23/21.  Both the Liverpool events happened in the apartments. 

Burglaries:

There were only two burglaries in December. They were both in the southeast portion of the neighborhood. One was in a garage part of the condos at Algiers/Flanders/ Chanel Ct. The other was in a home at 3300 Noe Way. This was down from seven burglaries in November. 

Car Thefts and Car Break-In's 


Location of Car Thefts

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

BLOCK_ADDRESS

2300 BLOCK HIKES LN

2

6

0.333

0.687

 

2800 BLOCK SHEILA DR

1

6

0.167

0.219

 

3300 BLOCK NOE WAY

1

6

0.167

0.219

 

3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

1

6

0.167

0.219

 

3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR

1

6

0.167

0.219

 

Car thefts roughly stayed the same.  There were five in November.  One car theft was in the Bon Air Estates zone, but the rest happened at the edges of the neighborhood. 

Location of Car Break-Ins

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

BLOCK_ADDRESS

2300 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

2800 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

5

0.200

0.375

 

3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

2

5

0.400

1.000


Overall, car-related thefts were reduced by 64 percent from November (n=14).  One of the break-ins took place near the Bon Air Manor shopping center.  


Usual Focus on 3300 Bardstown Rd.

It was unusual that the location with the most reports was not Bardstown Road.  It was actually 2300 Goldsmith Lane (with all the runaways from angry kids) followed by 3400 Bardstown Rd.   Nevertheless, The hotel/motel had an "accidental shooting," an assault, and some other event that required police intervention. 

With some redundancy 3400 Bardstown Rd, which is very much connected to 3300 Bardstown Rd, There was one assault report, two drug-related busts, two car break-ins, and one car theft. 

I have continued to have a question about how much "houseless" individuals contribute to the crime numbers in this area and I have not come to any conclusions.  When I was at one of the Thorntons, and there was a group of them panhandling outside the door.  I talked with one of the clerks who said that they are coming in and shoplifting.  With the concentration of panhandlers and houseless up and down Bardstown Road, my assumption was that there would have been an increase in nuisance and petty crimes in retail situations, but with covid, the police have not been able to respond. 

Overall there has been a reduction in police reports from November.  It is noticeable that there was a reduction in the number of assaults.  It hopefully leads to a further reduction over the rising trend in September through November. 

Well ...Covid Did it Again!

Well, the Bon Air Neighborhood Association meeting that was going to be held 1/10/2022 at 6:30pm at the Bon Air Library has had to be moved to Zoom due to the LPFL covid measures.  If you are reading this before then,  you can join it as we are scheduled to have District 8 Rep Cassie Armstrong, Jeff Noble (Brent Ackerson's legislative assistant) Neal Turpin (candidate for state representative), and a representative from LMPD's Sixth Division to talk about current trends.

Without sounding like a commercial for Zoom.  you just have to copy this link into your browser.


You then just have to enter a passcode of 367685. You do not have to have a camera to see the proceedings. 

Otherwise, if you have a smartphone, you can download the Zoom app  enter the following

Meeting ID: 868 7655 3889
Passcode: 367685

Otherwise, If you have not joined, please consider joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association  We seek to be an effective advocate for the neighborhood and are excited that our project of the Farnsley Park stage coming to fruition in 2022, but our work is far from done.  We would love your interest and involvement. 

The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join. 

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here. 








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