Bon Air Crime Analysis for September 2021, Overall number was same, what happened changed

 

This is an analysis for September 2021 based on open data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.   The limits of this analysis also include that it is limited to what LMPD actually puts on this report. 

There were 68 total reports--the same number as in August. What happened within those 68 reports.

There are some usual numbers. The 40218 and Bon Air zones have more reports. 

By Zip Code
Variable			Level		Counts		Total		Proportion				p
ZIP_CODE			40218		48		68		0.706				< .001
			40220		20		68		0.294				< .001
Zone
Variable		Level						Counts		Total		Proportion				p
Zone		Bon Air						61		68		0.897				< .001
		Highgate Springs						7		68		0.103				< .001

The theme of shifting comes in here as the 40220 zone had 10 fewer reports than last month.  The Highgate Springs zone had two fewer reports. 

Most reports happened in the middle of the week on Wednesdays. 

By Weekday
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Weekday		Friday		3		68		0.044		< .001
		Monday		12		68		0.176		< .001
		Saturday		11		68		0.162		< .001
		Sunday		9		68		0.132		< .001
		Thursday		11		68		0.162		< .001
		Tuesday		7		68		0.103		< .001
		Wednesday		15		68		0.221		< .001

With regard to types of crimes, assault again was again the most reported.  There were eight more of them this month; August had 15. 

By Crime Type

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		23		68		0.338		0.010
		BURGLARY		4		68		0.059		< .001
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		3		68		0.044		< .001
		DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS		2		68		0.029		< .001
		FRAUD		1		68		0.015		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		3		68		0.044		< .001
		OTHER		11		68		0.162		< .001
		ROBBERY		2		68		0.029		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		5		68		0.074		< .001
		VANDALISM		10		68		0.147		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		4		68		0.059		< .001

There were eight more assaults than last month, and here are where they took place: 

Addresses of the Assaults

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT		1		23		0.043		< .001
		2500 BLOCK FUREEN DR		1		23		0.043		< .001
		2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL		2		23		0.087		< .001
		3000 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD		1		23		0.043		< .001
		3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD		1		23		0.043		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		7		23		0.304		0.093
		3300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		1		23		0.043		< .001
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		2		23		0.087		< .001
		3400 BLOCK TERRIER LN		1		23		0.043		< .001
		3500 BLOCK LISBON LN		2		23		0.087		< .001
		3600 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		1		23		0.043		< .001
		3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR		1		23		0.043		< .001
		3700 BLOCK MINA TER		2		23		0.087		< .001

The "other" crimes were the next highest reported.  There were actually five less than last month.  They were as follows: 

The "Other" Police Reports

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE)		2		11		0.182		0.065
		DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT		3		11		0.273		0.227
		LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANC		3		11		0.273		0.227
		MISSING PERSONS		3		11		0.273		0.227
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5. The two overdoses were two separate investigations on 9/17/2021 at the hotel/motel.   The third highest category was vandalism.  There were five more reports than last month. Here is where vandalism was reported. The Vandalism Report Locations Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL 1 10 0.100 0.021   3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD 1 10 0.100 0.021   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 10 0.100 0.021   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 10 0.200 0.109   3600 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN 3 10 0.300 0.344   3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR 1 10 0.100 0.021   3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD 1 10 0.100 0.021 I will add here that there has been an active "tagger" marking everything with "bloke." I am seeing outside of the neighborhood.  It is a British slang word for "a man."  Furthermore, if you Google it, there are some hits for some renowned graffiti artist in New York City who goes by "Bloke." I doubt we are being graced by this particular artist, but probably a wannabe.  Otherwise, because we are primarily a residential neighborhood, we have concerns about burglaries and car break-ins.  The following tables showed where they are. The Burglary Locations Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HIKES LN 1 4 0.250 0.625   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 4 0.250 0.625   3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 4 0.250 0.625   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 1 4 0.250 0.625 The Car Theft/Break-in locations Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 1 4 0.250 0.625   2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE 1 4 0.250 0.625   3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD 1 4 0.250 0.625   3400 BLOCK TERRIER LN 1 4 0.250 0.625 The significant or maybe good news is that the burglaries were around the boundaries of the neighborhood and not inside the neighborhood.  All the car-related crimes were break-ins and not actual car thefts.  Usual Focus on  3300 Bardstown Rd  Our usual, notorious site of the crime reports is 3300 Bardstown Rd. It had 12 fewer reports than last month, but had almost one-fifth of the reports.  Police Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 7 14 0.500 1.000   BURGLARY 1 14 0.071 0.002   DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS 1 14 0.071 0.002   FRAUD 1 14 0.071 0.002   OTHER 3 14 0.214 0.057   VANDALISM 1 14 0.071 0.002 The hotel had five of the reports.  What happened at the Hotel/Motel? Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p CRIME_TYPE ASSAULT 2 5 0.400 1.000   OTHER 3 5 0.600 1.000 As noted in the discussion of the "other" category two of the reports were drug overdose deaths.  The one other "other" report was for domestic violence. Tying it Together So, there was the same number of police reports.  There were more assaults, few other "other" reports, fewer theft/larcenies but more vandalism events.  On the other hand, the numbers say we as a neighborhood are doing a decent job as a whole at crime prevention.   Concluding thoughts The Bon Air Neighborhood Association definitely could use your support. We seek to be an effective advocate for the neighborhood and are excited that our product of the Farnsley Park stage is coming to fruition, but our work is far from done.  We would love your interest and involvement.  We have begun to meet in person again.  We meet on the second Monday of the month.  Our next meeting will be in the community room of the Bon Air Library on November 8, 2021, at 6:30pm.  The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join.  You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here.  https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8