Bon Air Crime Analysis for July 2021. Down a Little Again Overall, but Up in Highgate Springs.

 

This is an analysis for July 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 51 reports made by LMPD, down from the 53 in June.   There were the usual trends, but it was significant that the Highgate Springs zone had an increase in reports. 

Here are the usual breakdowns. 

• The 40218 area and the Bon Air zone had the higher number of reports. 

Crime Reports by Zip Code

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		36		51		0.706		0.005
		40220		15		51		0.294		0.005

Crime Reports by Zone   Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p Zone Bon Air 34 51 0.667 0.024   Bon Air Estates 1 51 0.020 < .001   Highgate Springs 16 51 0.314 0.011

But again the Highgate Springs had a higher number percentage of cases.  This is not the highest number of cases this year as January had 17 reports, but there were

• 9 reports in June
• 13 reports in May
• 12 reports in April
• 9 reports in March
• 14 reports in February

I think that it is due to an increase in thefts/larcenies in that zone. 

Thefts/Larcenies in Highgate Springs

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2800 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		5		0.200		0.375
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		5		0.200		0.375
		3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD		2		5		0.400		1.000
		3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD		1		5		0.200		0.375

Otherwise, for the whole neighborhood, it was a multi-modal trend in the number of reports by weekday in that Mondays and Thursdays had the most reports. 

Crime Reports by weekday

With regard to overall crime reports, assaults were the most common. 

Here is a table for those of you who like clear numbers: 

Reports by Crime Type
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		13		51		0.255		< .001
		BURGLARY		1		51		0.020		< .001
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		1		51		0.020		< .001
		FRAUD		1		51		0.020		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		1		51		0.020		< .001
		OTHER		11		51		0.216		< .001
		ROBBERY		2		51		0.039		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		10		51		0.196		< .001
		VANDALISM		5		51		0.098		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		6		51		0.118		< .001

The assaults happened throughout the neighborhood, but mostly at 3300 Bardstown.

Location of Assaults

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		1		13		0.077		0.003
		2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT		2		13		0.154		0.022
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		13		0.077		0.003
		2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE		1		13		0.077		0.003
		3000 BLOCK RADIANCE RD		1		13		0.077		0.003
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		5		13		0.385		0.581
		3300 BLOCK NOE WAY		1		13		0.077		0.003
		I264E AT BARDSTOWN RD		1		13		0.077		0.003

The larcenies were the next most common report. 

Location of Thefts/Larcenies

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2800 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		10		0.100		0.021
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		10		0.100		0.021
		3000 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD		2		10		0.200		0.109
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		3		10		0.300		0.344
		3300 BLOCK WELLINGMOOR AVE		1		10		0.100		0.021
		3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD		1		10		0.100		0.021
		3700 BLOCK MINA TER		1		10		0.100		0.021

There were 10 "Other" reports.  These were what they were. 

Other Crime reports Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p UOR_DESC DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT 2 11 0.182 0.065   LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANCE 3 11 0.273 0.227   MISSING PERSONS 5 11 0.455 1.000   RECOVERY OF STOLEN PROPERTY 1 11 0.091 0.012

The missing person reports as usual were at 2300 Goldsmith Lane.

We are always interested in car break-ins and car thefts.

Location of Car Break-Ins/Thefts

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		2		7		0.286		0.453
		2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT		1		7		0.143		0.125
		3000 BLOCK WEDGEWOOD WAY		2		7		0.286		0.453
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		2		7		0.286		0.453

The report at 2300 block of Terrier was the actual theft of a car.  The other three locations were two reports at the same time that included taking the car tags in addition to breaking into the cars. 

As usual, the 3300 block of Bardstown was the location with the most reports with 23.5 percent. 

Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		5		12		0.417		0.774
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		1		12		0.083		0.006
		OTHER		2		12		0.167		0.039
		THEFT/LARCENY		3		12		0.250		0.146
		VANDALISM		1		12		0.083		0.006

 

Here are the premises of the reports

Premises of Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
PREMISE_TYPE		CONVENIENCE STORE		1		12		0.083		0.006
		HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY		1		12		0.083		0.006
		HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.		3		12		0.250		0.146
		OTHER / UNKNOWN		1		12		0.083		0.006
		OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)		3		12		0.250		0.146
		PARKING LOT / GARAGE		3		12		0.250		0.146

The hotel/motel had 1) a domestic violence call, 2) an assault call and 3) a theft/larceny call.  They happened on different days. 

Other notes: 

• There was one burglary from a garage at 2800 Hikes Lane.
• There was one robbery report at 3100 Wedgewood Way, by or in Farnsley Park on 7/19/2021. It looks like it was an attempted robbery. 
• At 2300 Terrier Lane, where there was a murder back in May, besides the car theft there was a domestic violence call and a report of an assault. They happened at different times/dates. 

Otherwise, I want to remind you that Seneca High School will be open for real in a few weeks. There has been a trend to see increased car thefts in the morning when people are warming up their vehicles and leaving the doors open. 

I also hope you join one of the neighborhood associations in your zone but regardless you are welcome to join the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. 

The Bon Air Neighborhood Association definitely could use your support. 

The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow anyone with an interest in our organization to join. 

You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here. 

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=PBPSRSBFU52D8