Bon Air Crime Analysis for June 2021, Down 23 Percent from May

 

This is an analysis for June 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 53 reports made by LMPD, 23.18 percent down from the 69 in June.   

Here are the usual breakdowns.  The 40218 area as usual had more of the reports.

Reports by Zip Code
Variable			Level		Counts		Total		Proportion				p
ZIP_CODE			40218		38		53		0.717				0.002
			40220		15		53		0.283				0.002
The Bon Air zone had 44 or 83 percent of the reports while the Highgate Springs zone had nine or 17 percent of the reports.
Reports by Zone
Variable		Level						Counts		Total		Proportion				p
Zone		Bon Air						44		53		0.830				< .001
		Highgate Springs						9		53		0.170				< .001

The Bon Air Estates zone again had no reports. 

The 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had the most reports. 

Reports by Block Address
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		5		53		0.094		< .001
		2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		3		53		0.057		< .001
		2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE		2		53		0.038		< .001
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		5		53		0.094		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		8		53		0.151		< .001
		3500 BLOCK TERRIER LN		2		53		0.038		< .001
		3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR		2		53		0.038		< .001
		3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY		4		53		0.075		< .001
		3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY		2		53		0.038		< .001
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		4		53		0.075		< .001
The 3300 block of Bardstown Rd had two assaults, four thefts, and two cases of vandalism.  The only report at the hotel was vandalism.

With regard to the weekday breakdown, the reports were spread fairly evenly throughout the week. 

Reports by Weekday
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Weekday		Friday		7		53		0.132		< .001
		Monday		8		53		0.151		< .001
		Saturday		8		53		0.151		< .001
		Sunday		9		53		0.170		< .001
		Thursday		8		53		0.151		< .001
		Tuesday		6		53		0.113		< .001
		Wednesday		7		53		0.132		< .001

 With regard to crime type, there were far more assault reports (35.8) than any other type of crime.

Reports by Crime Type
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		19		53		0.358		0.053
		BURGLARY		2		53		0.038		< .001
		FRAUD		1		53		0.019		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		4		53		0.075		< .001
		OTHER		9		53		0.170		< .001
		ROBBERY		1		53		0.019		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		11		53		0.208		< .001
		VANDALISM		4		53		0.075		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		2		53		0.038		< .001
Where were the assaults?  All over  Location of Assaults Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN 2 19 0.105 < .001   2500 BLOCK MASEMURE CT 1 19 0.053 < .001   2500 BLOCK PROCTOR KNOTT DR 1 19 0.053 < .001   2800 BLOCK FLORA AVE 1 19 0.053 < .001   2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 2 19 0.105 < .001   3300 BLOCK ALLISON WAY 1 19 0.053 < .001   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 2 19 0.105 < .001   3400 BLOCK ALLISON WAY 1 19 0.053 < .001   3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR 1 19 0.053 < .001   3600 BLOCK JOHNSTON WAY 4 19 0.211 0.019   3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 3 19 0.158 0.004 It was interesting that the 3600 Block of Johnston in the Highgate Springs had the most of the assaults.  They happened on different days (6/11, 6/13, 6/14, 6/25) and were all DVO/EPO violations.   Car-related crimes My interest was piqued by a news feature story on WLKY/Channel 32 about an increase in car thefts. (https://www.wlky.com/article/its-100-preventable-lmpd-seeing-more-car-thefts-where-key-fobs-were-left-inside-vehicles/36961521)  The story essentially led with LMPD saying that these are 100 percent preventable.  There were 24 car thefts in Middletown and Hurstbourne in the month of June and 16 of those thefts were in one week. Furthermore 12 of the cars had the keys/fobs in them.   Well, what happened in Bon Air?  There were four car thefts and two car break-ins.  Location of Car Thefts and Break-ins     Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p BLOCK_ADDRESS 2900 BLOCK HIKES LN 2 6 0.333 0.687   3500 BLOCK AUTUMN WAY 1 6 0.167 0.219   3500 BLOCK TERRIER LN 1 6 0.167 0.219   3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR 1 6 0.167 0.219   3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY 1 6 0.167 0.219

Two car thefts were out of a parking lot at 2900 Hikes Lane.   One was out of the service station and the other was from a "garage."  

Two other car thefts were at 3500 Autumn Lane and the other car theft the next street over on 3500 Terrier Lane.  They were one day apart.  That could be a pattern.   

Otherwise, there were two car break-ins.  One car break-in was in the Green Meadows and one was at 3600 Windward Way.  Bon Air was not as bad as Middletown or Hurstbourne in this case. 

As stated previously in some of my other posts, good crime prevention is doing our part in Louisville Metro given all the news stories about how stretched police resources are.  Assaults are one matter that is what I will call an existential matter, but locking cars, not keeping valuables in cars, installing doorbell cameras, and alarm systems are all basic crime prevention that I think is making a difference.  Crime prevention discourages crimes of opportunity.  I also think with us hopefully coming out of the Covid-19 winter we might be able to get some block watches going to help further prevent crime.   At least June was a better month. 

I also hope you join one of the neighborhood associations in your zone but regardless you are welcome to join the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here. 

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