Wednesday, June 9, 2021

Bon Air Crime Analysis for May, 2021. Up 11 Percent and some Tragic Events.

This is an analysis for May 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 69 reports made by LMPD, up from the 62 in April.  While that is "only" seven, it is also 11 percent.   There were two murders that were reported in the media at the McDonalds (just across the line) and as discussed in the previous post, at 2300 Terrier Court.

Here are the usual breakdowns

The 40218 portion had by far as usual the most reports. 

Reports by Zip Code

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

40218

52

67

0.776

< .001

40220

15

67

0.224

< .001


The Bon Air zone had more as usual. 

Reports by Zone

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Zone

Bon Air

54

67

0.806

< .001

 

Highgate Springs

13

67

0.194

< .001


The Bon Air Estates portion had no reports. 

What was interesting to me is that more reports were on Saturday.  Usually there are more reports during the middle of the week.  


Reports by Weekday

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

Friday

4

67

0.060

< .001

Monday

11

67

0.164

< .001

Saturday

19

67

0.284

< .001

Sunday

10

67

0.149

< .001

Thursday

9

67

0.134

< .001

Tuesday

9

67

0.134

< .001

Wednesday

5

67

0.075

< .001


What was happening on Saturdays?  Probably more assaults? 

Crime Reports on Saturdays in May

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

10

19

0.526

1.000

 

OTHER

4

19

0.211

0.019

 

THEFT/LARCENY

2

19

0.105

< .001

 

VANDALISM

2

19

0.105

< .001

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

1

19

0.053

< .001


After all, assaults were the most common crime report. 

Reports by Weekday

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

21

67

0.313

0.003

 

BURGLARY

1

67

0.015

< .001

 

DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS

1

67

0.015

< .001

 

FRAUD

3

67

0.045

< .001

 

HOMICIDE

2

67

0.030

< .001

 

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

3

67

0.045

< .001

 

OTHER

16

67

0.239

< .001

 

ROBBERY

3

67

0.045

< .001

 

THEFT/LARCENY

9

67

0.134

< .001

 

VANDALISM

6

67

0.090

< .001

 

VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT

2

67

0.030

< .001


There was one burglary at 2200 Liverpool Lane.  The motor vehicle thefts were at 2200 Gerald, Ct, 300 Chanel Ct, and 2300 Hikes Lane.  The vehicle break-ins were on May 4 and May 8 at 3400 Bardstown Rd.   The robberies were at 3300 Bardstown Rd and 2200 Hikes Lane. 

Where were the assaults?  All over but mostly at 3300 Bardstown Rd. 

Assaults by Location

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

BLOCK_ADDRESS

2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN

1

21

0.048

< .001

 

2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN

1

21

0.048

< .001

 

2300 BLOCK HIKES LN

3

21

0.143

0.001

 

2800 BLOCK HIKES LN

1

21

0.048

< .001

 

2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE

1

21

0.048

< .001

 

3200 BLOCK COMMANDER DR

1

21

0.048

< .001

 

3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD

6

21

0.286

0.078

 

3600 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN

1

21

0.048

< .001

 

3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR

1

21

0.048

< .001

 

3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD

3

21

0.143

0.001

 

BARDSTOWN RD / HEATHER LN

1

21

0.048

< .001

 

BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN

1

21

0.048

< .001


Speaking of the 3300 block of Bardstown Rd, it had the most crime reports as usual of any location in the neighborhood. 

Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

6

15

0.400

0.607

 

FRAUD

1

15

0.067

< .001

 

HOMICIDE

1

15

0.067

< .001

 

OTHER

2

15

0.133

0.007

 

ROBBERY

2

15

0.133

0.007

 

THEFT/LARCENY

2

15

0.133

0.007

 

VANDALISM

1

15

0.067

< .001


Where the did reports happen at 3300 Bardstown Rd?  The hotel/motel is making a comeback.

Premises of Crime Reports at 3300 Bardstown

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

PREMISE_TYPE

HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.

8

15

0.533

1.000

 

OTHER / UNKNOWN

1

15

0.067

< .001

 

OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)

2

15

0.133

0.007

 

PARKING LOT / GARAGE

2

15

0.133

0.007

 

SERVICE / GAS STATION

2

15

0.133

0.007


What exactly happened at the hotel/motel?

Crime Reports at the Hotel/Motel etc at 3300 Bardstown

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

CRIME_TYPE

ASSAULT

4

8

0.500

1.000

 

FRAUD

1

8

0.125

0.070

 

OTHER

2

8

0.250

0.289

 

ROBBERY

1

8

0.125

0.070

.

The "other" reports were a death investigation (drug overdose) and domestic violence case, both made on May 15,2021.  Reports are increasing at the hotel/motel again.  The Yaldos were keeping a lid on things for a few years. 

One last matter is a breakdown of the "other" category. 

 

The "Other" Reports

Variable

Level

Counts

Total

Proportion

p

UOR_DESC

DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE)

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT

6

16

0.375

0.454

 

HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

INDECENT EXPOSURE - 2ND DEGREE

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

LEAVING SCENE OF ACCIDENT/FAILURE TO RENDER AID OR ASSISTANC

5

16

0.313

0.210

 

MISSING PERSONS

1

16

0.063

< .001

 

VIOLATION OF COURT ORDER

1

16

0.063

< .001


As just noted, the death investigation was at the hotel/motel.  Otherwise, the hit and run reports were at the freeway, Bardstown Road and Heather.   The indecent exposure was at 2200 Heather Lane around the apartments. 

Overall, there was no pattern of significant crime increases in the interior of the neighborhood. It is good that people have Ring Doorbells and cameras. They continue to keep the burglaries down. 

The Bon Air Estates people continue to do a good job of keeping that area crime-free.  They have good cooperation in watching.  

As we emerge from this Covid pandemic, I hope that you keep your vigilance.  I also hope you join one of the neighborhood associations.  The annual dues of the Bon Air Neighborhood Association are $20.00 and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201.   Or you can pay your dues and join by Paypal by clicking here. 


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