Bon Air Crime Analysis for March 2021, a Slight Increase.

 This is an analysis for March 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual, it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There were 69 reports for the month of March, which is a 15 percent increase over the 60 reports of February. 

As usual the 40218 and Bon Air zones had more of the crimes. 

Report by Zip Code

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		49		69		0.710		< .001
		40220		20		69		0.290		< .001

 Report by Zone

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Zone		Bon Air		60		69		0.870		< .001
		Highgate Springs		9		69		0.130		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5. As usual, the 3300 Block of Bardstown had the most reports. Report by Block Address Variable Level Counts Total Proportion p   2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN 3 69 0.043 < .001   2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN 6 69 0.087 < .001   2300 BLOCK HIKES LN 5 69 0.072 < .001   3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN 6 69 0.087 < .001   3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD 16 69 0.232 < .001   3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD 3 69 0.043 < .001

The majority of the reports at 2300 Goldsmith were missing persons. 

This is what happened at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		ASSAULT - 4TH DEGREE (MINOR INJURY)		1		16		0.063		< .001
		CRIMINAL MISCHIEF - 1ST DEGREE		1		16		0.063		< .001
		CRIMINAL MISCHIEF-2ND DEGREE		1		16		0.063		< .001
		DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE)		1		16		0.063		< .001
		DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT		1		16		0.063		< .001
		MISSING PERSONS		2		16		0.125		0.004
		SVU INVESTIGATION PENDING		1		16		0.063		< .001
		TBUT OR DISP ALL OTHERS < $500		1		16		0.063		< .001
		TBUT OR DISP AUTO > $10,000 BUT < $1,000,000		1		16		0.063		< .001
		TBUT OR DISP AUTO > $500 BUT < $10,000		1		16		0.063		< .001
		TBUT OR DISP CONTENTS FROM VEH < $500		1		16		0.063		< .001
		TBUT OR DISP FROM BLDG $500 OR > BUT < $10,000		1		16		0.063		< .001
		TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING < $500		1		16		0.063		< .001
		WANTON ENDANGERMENT-1ST DEGREE		2		16		0.125		0.004

The most frequent police report was "assaults."

Types of Crime Reports

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		19		69		0.275		< .001
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		2		69		0.029		< .001
		FRAUD		8		69		0.116		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		6		69		0.087		< .001
		OTHER		18		69		0.261		< .001
		ROBBERY		1		69		0.014		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		7		69		0.101		< .001
		VANDALISM		6		69		0.087		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		2		69		0.029		< .001
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

Here is where the assault reports were made 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN		1		19		0.053		< .001
		2200 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		19		0.053		< .001
		2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN		1		19		0.053		< .001
		2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		1		19		0.053		< .001
		2300 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		19		0.053		< .001
		2700 BLOCK MASEMURE CT		1		19		0.053		< .001
		2800 BLOCK DEL RIO PL		1		19		0.053		< .001
		3000 BLOCK BOAIRES LN		5		19		0.263		0.064
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		3		19		0.158		0.004
		3500 BLOCK BROCKTON LN		1		19		0.053		< .001
		3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR		1		19		0.053		< .001
		3600 BLOCK WINDWARD WAY		1		19		0.053		< .001
		BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN		1		19		0.053		< .001

This is not a large increase as there were only 16 such reports in February.  There were also four assault charges/reports on one day at 3000 Boaires Ln. 

This is a breakdown of the "other" category. 

Binomial Test
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		DEATH INVESTIGATION		1		18		0.056		< .001
		DEATH INVESTIGATION (OVERDOSE)		2		18		0.111		0.001
		DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT		3		18		0.167		0.008
		MISSING PERSONS		9		18		0.500		1.000
		PROPERTY LOST OR ABANDONED NON CRIMINAL		1		18		0.056		< .001
		RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION		1		18		0.056		< .001
		SVU INVESTIGATION PENDING		1		18		0.056		< .001

For the record here is a list of the days of the week when reports were made. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Weekday		Friday		10		69		0.145		< .001
		Monday		16		69		0.232		< .001
		Saturday		12		69		0.174		< .001
		Sunday		5		69		0.072		< .001
		Thursday		4		69		0.058		< .001
		Tuesday		8		69		0.116		< .001
		Wednesday		14		69		0.203		< .001

For the record, here are the locations of where the car thefts and break-in reports were

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK LIVERPOOL LN		1		8		0.125		0.070
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		3		8		0.375		0.727
		3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD		2		8		0.250		0.289
		3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR		1		8		0.125		0.070
		3600 BLOCK KINGS HWY		1		8		0.125		0.070
Note.  Proportions tested against value: 0.5.

As usual, more reports are made during the week in general. It is interesting that 

Saturday was higher in terms of reports.  Otherwise Monday and Wednesday had a larger number of reports as usual. 

Comments: 

Things went up, but that could be more of the runaways and increase of reports at 3300 Bardstown Rd.  The good news was there were no burglaries.   There were two overdose deaths, which continues to concern me.  One of the overdoses was at the motel at 3300 Bardstown Rd and the other was on Gerald Ct.  

Thank you for following this blog and I hope that this information is useful to you. 

If you haven't joined, I hope you consider supporting and joining the Bon Air Neighborhood Association. We are an organization organized in 2008 to advocate for the neighborhood. We have some wonderful things that we are working on that will help improve the neighborhood. The annual dues are $20.00 a year per household, and you do not have to live within the boundaries as originally set by the Department of Neighborhoods. We changed our bylaws in 2019 to allow people with an interest in our organization. You can send your membership fee to PO Box 34262 Louisville, KY 40201. (Sorry, we are unable to do the electronic banking options)