Bon Air Crime Analysis for January, 2021, Or At Least What We Can Learn from Three Weeks Information . . . Some Not so Good Trends

 This is an analysis for January 2021 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open-source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

This month, the data base stopped at January 23, so there is the up front disclaimer that was probably more, but LMPD did not report it in the data base. 

Well, there were 51 reports compared to the 65 from December, but to belabor a point, it was only for three weeks.  That is a decrease of 21.5 percent.

With regard to the Zip Codes, the 40218 area as more as usual. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		30		50		0.600		0.203
		40220		20		50		0.400		0.203

However, The 40220 area had a higher proportion. 

It follows that the Highgate Springs Zone had more reports. 

Zone

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
Zone		Bon Air		30		50		0.600		0.203
		Bon Air Estates		3		50		0.060		< .001
		Highgate Springs		17		50		0.340		0.033

The Block Address that had the most reports as usual was 3300 block of Bardstown.

Types of Crime at 3300 Bardstown Rd
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		DRUG PARAPHERNALIA - BUY/POSSESS		2		10		0.200		0.109
		HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS		1		10		0.100		0.021
		POSS CONT SUB-1ST DEGREE-1ST OFFENSE-HEROIN		2		10		0.200		0.109
		POSS OF MARIJUANA		2		10		0.200		0.109
		RAPE - 1ST DEGREE - VICTIM U/12 YEARS OF AGE		1		10		0.100		0.021
		TBUT OR DISP FROM BUILDING < $500		1		10		0.100		0.021
		TBUT OR DISP SHOPLIFTING $500 OR > BUT < $10,000		1		10		0.100		0.021

The "Motel" seems to be having an uptick in reports. 

Locations of 3300 Bardstown Reports
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
PREMISE_TYPE		DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE		1		10		0.100		0.021
		HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.		5		10		0.500		1.000
		RESIDENCE / HOME		3		10		0.300		0.344
		RESTAURANT		1		10		0.100		0.021

The hotel had five drug related charges/reports on January 8,2021. 

Moving on, the most occurring crime report was thefts/larcenies.   They happened at the edges of the neighborhood. 

Locations of Theft/Larcenies

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2300 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		11		0.091		0.012
		3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD		1		11		0.091		0.012
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		2		11		0.182		0.065
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		11		0.091		0.012
		3500 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		11		0.091		0.012
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		2		11		0.182		0.065
		3700 BLOCK TAYLORSVILLE RD		1		11		0.091		0.012
		BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN		1		11		0.091		0.012
		I264E TO BARDSTOWN RD		1		11		0.091		0.012

The other large category well . . . was the the "Other" Category

The Other Police Reports
Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
UOR_DESC		CRIMINAL POSSESSION FORGED INSTRUMENT-1ST DEGREE-IDENTIFY		1		13		0.077		0.003
		DEATH INVESTIGATION		1		13		0.077		0.003
		DOMESTIC ABUSE DUTIES OF LAW ENFORCEMENT		4		13		0.308		0.267
		HARASSING COMMUNICATIONS		2		13		0.154		0.022
		MISSING PERSONS		1		13		0.077		0.003
		RECOVERY OF STOLEN PROPERTY		1		13		0.077		0.003
		RECOVERY OF STOLEN VEHICLE-OUT OF JURISDICTION		2		13		0.154		0.022
		TBUT OR DISP ALL OTHERS < $500		1		13		0.077		0.003

The death investigation was in the Bon  Air Estates Zone and the missing person was at 3300 Bardstown Rd. 

There is one report that I hope does not happen again, and that was a report of a rape on Willow Way.  The report indicates that it was the rape of a child under 12 years of age. Even though I am in the field of Social Work, I still get sick hearing such stories. 

To clear the palate there were two burglaries. One was at a residence on 2500 Fureen Drive. The other was at 3700 Bardstown Rd in a business.  If you like in the Brookfield Manor area, it could be in your interest to be part of the block watch.

As we head into 2021, our vigilance as a neighborhood is important.  Crime prevention is the best strategy given the stretched resources of the LMPD.  The Bon Air Neighborhood Association continues to support block watches.  If you do not join a block watch, consider getting a doorbell camera as they are great deterrents.