Bon Air Crime Analysis for July 2020 Some Improvement from the previous month.

 This is an analysis for July,2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department  at  https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports

It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package.  This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.



As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West  
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North. 

The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.  

There was some improvement from June in that there were 61 police reports for the month of July (69).  There were 16 missing reports from Boys and Girls Haven that were excluded.   There was also one report from 3700 Taylorsville Rd that was excluded given that it appeared to be the Highgate Springs Apartments and that is clearly outside of the neighborhood. 

In terms of location, it was probably the closest to even that I have seen the reports in the years of doing this report, with 34 reports in the 40218 portion and 27 in the 40220 portion. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZIP_CODE		40218		34		61		0.557		0.443
		40220		27		61		0.443		0.443

In breaking it down between zones, Bon Air as usual had more reports than Highgate Springs, but it was in the same direction as the Zip Code data. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
ZONE		Bon Air		35		61		0.574		0.306
		Highgate Springs		26		61		0.426		0.306

Focus on 3300 Bardstown Rd

In a grand sense the 3300 Block of Bardstown is again showing to be the block where most of the police reports were. with 17 or 24.59 percent of the reports.

Types of Crime at 3300 Bardstown Rd for July 2020

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		5		17		0.294		0.143
		FRAUD		1		17		0.059		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		3		17		0.176		0.013
		OTHER		3		17		0.176		0.013
		THEFT/LARCENY		2		17		0.118		0.002
		VANDALISM		2		17		0.118		0.002
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		1		17		0.059		< .001

The hotel had three of the reports. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
PREMISE_TYPE		BANK / SAVINGS & LOAN		2		17		0.118		0.002
		HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.		3		17		0.176		0.013
		OTHER / UNKNOWN		1		17		0.059		< .001
		OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)		1		17		0.059		< .001
		PARKING LOT / GARAGE		3		17		0.176		0.013
		RESIDENCE / HOME		4		17		0.235		0.049
		RESTAURANT		2		17		0.118		0.002
		SERVICE / GAS STATION		1		17		0.059		< .001

Types of Crime Reports at the Hotel at 3300 Bardstown Rd

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		1		3		0.333		1.000
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		1		3		0.333		1.000
		VANDALISM		1		3		0.333		1.000

Reports in the Rest of the Neighborhood

Otherwise, turning it back to the neighborhood, the most common crime report was "assaults" with 21 or 34.4 percent of the reports. 

Types of Crime in July 2020

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		21		61		0.344		0.020
		BURGLARY		4		61		0.066		< .001
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		1		61		0.016		< .001
		FRAUD		2		61		0.033		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		6		61		0.098		< .001
		OTHER		9		61		0.148		< .001
		ROBBERY		1		61		0.016		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		10		61		0.164		< .001
		VANDALISM		3		61		0.049		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		4		61		0.066		< .001

The assaults were spread out across the neighborhood. 

Locations of Assaults

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2300 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		1		21		0.048		< .001
		2300 BLOCK MEDFORD LN		1		21		0.048		< .001
		2500 BLOCK FUREEN DR		1		21		0.048		< .001
		2800 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		21		0.048		< .001
		3000 BLOCK SOMBER WAY		1		21		0.048		< .001
		3200 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		21		0.048		< .001
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		5		21		0.238		0.027
		3300 BLOCK HIKES LN		2		21		0.095		< .001
		3500 BLOCK GOLDSMITH LN		1		21		0.048		< .001
		3600 BLOCK KINGS HWY		2		21		0.095		< .001
		3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD		3		21		0.143		0.001
		3700 BLOCK TAYLORSVILLE RD		2		21		0.095		< .001

They happened primarily in homes except for what happened at 3300 Bardstown Rd.

With regard to burglaries, there were four spread out through the neighborhood.

 Location of Burglaries

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2500 BLOCK WYCKFORD WAY		1		4		0.250		0.625
		3000 BLOCK SOMBER WAY		1		4		0.250		0.625
		3200 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		4		0.250		0.625
		3500 BLOCK BROCKTON LN		1		4		0.250		0.625

Car related thefts have long been a concern.  

Locations of Auto-related Crimes

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE		1		10		0.100		0.021
		2800 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		10		0.100		0.021
		3000 BLOCK WEDGEWOOD WAY		1		10		0.100		0.021
		3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD		1		10		0.100		0.021
		3200 BLOCK COMMANDER DR		1		10		0.100		0.021
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		4		10		0.400		0.754
		BARDSTOWN RD / HIKES LN		1		10		0.100		0.021

Barring 3300 Bardstown Rd, they were primarily in the Highgate Springs area. 

Thefts/Larcenies  were the second most common police report and require some mention. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
BLOCK_ADDRESS		2200 BLOCK HIKES LN		1		10		0.100		0.021
		2900 BLOCK HIKES LN		2		10		0.200		0.109
		3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		2		10		0.200		0.109
		3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		1		10		0.100		0.021
		3700 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD		3		10		0.300		0.344
		3700 BLOCK TAYLORSVILLE RD		1		10		0.100		0.021

They were spread out around the edges of the neighborhood.  With the exception of one at 3700 Taylorsville Rd, they were in businesses. 

Note on Highgate Springs

Again, it was noticeable that Highgate Springs had a larger than normal piece of the pie. 

Variable		Level		Counts		Total		Proportion		p
CRIME_TYPE		ASSAULT		11		26		0.423		0.557
		BURGLARY		3		26		0.115		< .001
		DISTURBING THE PEACE		1		26		0.038		< .001
		MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT		1		26		0.038		< .001
		OTHER		4		26		0.154		< .001
		ROBBERY		1		26		0.038		< .001
		THEFT/LARCENY		3		26		0.115		< .001
		VANDALISM		1		26		0.038		< .001
		VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT		1		26		0.038		< .001

I'm inclined to say that it was the assaults that bumped up the number. 

Concluding Comments

It is good news that the number of reports went down by a few It is noticeable that there were no reports in the Bon Air Estates zone.  They continue to have a fairly tight cohesion and block watches. The previous problem area of Lisbon has not had any issues.  

I think that getting close circuit cameras and doorbell cameras continue to be good investments especially in this day with LMPD being stretched.  They are decreasing in cost and available on Amazon and in local retailers.  At our planned Zoom meeting on September 14, 2020 (details to follow) we hope to have a LMPD representative give us a proper update on crime activity in the neighborhood..