This is an analysis for April, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports
It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package. This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.
As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.
The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.
There were four missing person reports from 2300 Goldsmith Lane that are otherwise left out the analysis. It may be interesting that 12 of the reports were made on Wednesdays and 12 of the reports were made on Fridays, and that accounts 50 percent of the reports, but then again . . . that may be interesting as noted below in discussing car thefts.
There were otherwise 46 police reports within the boundaries. This is down from the 48 reports in April.
The 40218 zip code had three times the reports as the 40220 area. The 35 reports is six more from 29 in April.
Crime Types for May
The most common type of crime for the month was assault. The most common crime assault and that is actually up from the six in April. The assaults were generally spread out
The
Assaults were in what kind of places?
I would have a bit of a quibble with how the police ranked this They called the assaults on Rowena Rd as residences/homes. With one exception, there is nothing but apartment houses on Rowena.
The 3300 Block of Bardstown Rd had the most reports with 12. As discussed earlier, there were four assaults. The motel had three reports that were a death investigation, a terroristic threatening and one of the assaults.
Otherwise, some of the usual concerns of a neighborhood are burglaries and car thefts.
There were three (3) burglaries on Liverpool, on Terrier Ct, and a store at 2200 Hikes Lane. They happened at different times of the month.
The car thefts were a little more interesting in that they were all reported on the same day at 4:00 am on Masemure, at 7:30 am on 2500 Goldsmith Lane, and then at 1:00 pm out of a parking lot at 3300 Bardstown Rd. That could be a pattern.
Otherwise, given all of the COVID19 precautions of the past three months it is a credit to the Bon Air neighborhood that many residents have engaged in crime prevention and the crime numbers show it.
I note that there were no car break-ins, which means people are liking locking their cars. Opportunistic thieves check car doors for guns and things they can fence. However, I hope that this is more true than not true as we do not have high school students walking into school from outside the neighborhood.
I continue to affirm the number of smart doorbells with cameras that deter would-be thieves. They do not want to be in places where they would be recorded on camera.
Even more now than ever crime prevention is important with the Metro Budget issues. The more we prevent the more LMPD is able to address more serious crimes outside of the Bon Air Neighborhood. When BANA is able to get back to meeting, we can hopefully facilitate more neighborhood watch formation.
A closing note is that the Bon Air Neighborhood Association is planning on facilitating a National Night Out on Tuesday, August 4. We had three locations last year and hope to have that many again. we hope that you can come out and meet your neighbors.
.
It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package. This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.
As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.
The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.
There were four missing person reports from 2300 Goldsmith Lane that are otherwise left out the analysis. It may be interesting that 12 of the reports were made on Wednesdays and 12 of the reports were made on Fridays, and that accounts 50 percent of the reports, but then again . . . that may be interesting as noted below in discussing car thefts.
There were otherwise 46 police reports within the boundaries. This is down from the 48 reports in April.
Crime
Reports by Zip Code
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
ZIP_CODE
|
40218
|
35
|
46
|
0.761
|
< .001
|
||||||
40220
|
11
|
46
|
0.239
|
< .001
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
The 40218 zip code had three times the reports as the 40220 area. The 35 reports is six more from 29 in April.
Crime Types for May
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
CRIME_TYPE
|
ASSAULT
|
15
|
46
|
0.326
|
0.026
|
||||||
BURGLARY
|
3
|
46
|
0.065
|
< .001
|
|||||||
DRUGS/ALCOHOL VIOLATIONS
|
2
|
46
|
0.043
|
< .001
|
|||||||
FRAUD
|
5
|
46
|
0.109
|
< .001
|
|||||||
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
|
3
|
46
|
0.065
|
< .001
|
|||||||
OTHER
|
6
|
46
|
0.130
|
< .001
|
|||||||
THEFT/LARCENY
|
7
|
46
|
0.152
|
< .001
|
|||||||
VANDALISM
|
5
|
46
|
0.109
|
< .001
|
|||||||
Where
the Assaults were?
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
BLOCK_ADDRESS
|
2200 BLOCK HIKES LN
|
1
|
15
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
||||||
2300 BLOCK TERRIER CT
|
2
|
15
|
0.133
|
0.007
|
|||||||
3200 BLOCK COMMANDER DR
|
1
|
15
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3200 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD
|
1
|
15
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3200 BLOCK RADIANCE RD
|
1
|
15
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
|
4
|
15
|
0.267
|
0.118
|
|||||||
3300 BLOCK NOE WAY
|
1
|
15
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD
|
2
|
15
|
0.133
|
0.007
|
|||||||
3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR
|
1
|
15
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
|||||||
3600 BLOCK STANTON BLVD
|
1
|
15
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
|||||||
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
PREMISE_TYPE
|
DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE
|
1
|
15
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
||||||
HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.
|
2
|
15
|
0.133
|
0.007
|
|||||||
OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)
|
4
|
15
|
0.267
|
0.118
|
|||||||
RESIDENCE / HOME
|
8
|
15
|
0.533
|
1.000
|
|||||||
I would have a bit of a quibble with how the police ranked this They called the assaults on Rowena Rd as residences/homes. With one exception, there is nothing but apartment houses on Rowena.
The 3300 Block of Bardstown Rd had the most reports with 12. As discussed earlier, there were four assaults. The motel had three reports that were a death investigation, a terroristic threatening and one of the assaults.
Types
of Crimes at 3300 Bardstown during May 2020
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
CRIME_TYPE
|
ASSAULT
|
4
|
12
|
0.333
|
0.388
|
||||||
FRAUD
|
2
|
12
|
0.167
|
0.039
|
|||||||
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
|
1
|
12
|
0.083
|
0.006
|
|||||||
VANDALISM
|
2
|
12
|
0.167
|
0.039
|
|||||||
OTHER
|
2
|
12
|
0.167
|
0.039
|
|||||||
THEFT/LARCENY
|
1
|
12
|
0.083
|
0.006
|
|||||||
Places
of Crimes at 3300 Bardstown during May 2020
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
PREMISE_TYPE
|
HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY
|
1
|
12
|
0.083
|
0.006
|
||||||
HOTEL / MOTEL / ETC.
|
3
|
12
|
0.250
|
0.146
|
|||||||
OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)
|
2
|
12
|
0.167
|
0.039
|
|||||||
PARKING LOT / GARAGE
|
1
|
12
|
0.083
|
0.006
|
|||||||
RESIDENCE / HOME
|
3
|
12
|
0.250
|
0.146
|
|||||||
SERVICE / GAS STATION
|
1
|
12
|
0.083
|
0.006
|
|||||||
SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC)
|
1
|
12
|
0.083
|
0.006
|
|||||||
Otherwise, some of the usual concerns of a neighborhood are burglaries and car thefts.
There were three (3) burglaries on Liverpool, on Terrier Ct, and a store at 2200 Hikes Lane. They happened at different times of the month.
The Car Thefts
The car thefts were a little more interesting in that they were all reported on the same day at 4:00 am on Masemure, at 7:30 am on 2500 Goldsmith Lane, and then at 1:00 pm out of a parking lot at 3300 Bardstown Rd. That could be a pattern.
Concluding Thoughts
Otherwise, given all of the COVID19 precautions of the past three months it is a credit to the Bon Air neighborhood that many residents have engaged in crime prevention and the crime numbers show it.
I note that there were no car break-ins, which means people are liking locking their cars. Opportunistic thieves check car doors for guns and things they can fence. However, I hope that this is more true than not true as we do not have high school students walking into school from outside the neighborhood.
I continue to affirm the number of smart doorbells with cameras that deter would-be thieves. They do not want to be in places where they would be recorded on camera.
Even more now than ever crime prevention is important with the Metro Budget issues. The more we prevent the more LMPD is able to address more serious crimes outside of the Bon Air Neighborhood. When BANA is able to get back to meeting, we can hopefully facilitate more neighborhood watch formation.
A closing note is that the Bon Air Neighborhood Association is planning on facilitating a National Night Out on Tuesday, August 4. We had three locations last year and hope to have that many again. we hope that you can come out and meet your neighbors.
.
