This is an analysis for April, 2020 based on data posted by the Louisville Metro Police Department at https://data.louisvilleky.gov/dataset/crime-reports
It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package. This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.
As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.
The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.
There were Eight (8) missing persons reports from 2300 Goldsmith Lane. They were kids that ran from Boys and Girls Haven maybe to the store or maybe because they just did not want to be there. But Boys and Girls Haven has to call the police when they run.
What mattered was that there were 48 (non-runaway) police reports for the month of April within the boundaries. That is down from 85 reports in March. A reduction in 42 perscent
Here are some of the relevant breakdowns.
There were 28 reports in the 40218 section and 19 in the 40220 section. There were 39 reports in the Bon Air section and 8 in the Highgate Springs section.
3600 Green Meadows was the location with the most police reports. The usually whipping post of 3300 Bardstown Rd only had three reports.
Saturday was the day of the week when most of the reports were made. Almost twice as many reports were made on that day of the ween than any other
It is significant that the crimes mostly happened in houses.
So, even thought the Bon Air section had more reports, when it was divided by zip code more houses in the 40220 district were the sites of reports over houses in 40218. The businesses were the significant difference in the number of reports between Bon Air and Highgate Springs.
The following chart shows what happened at residences in the neighborhood
The following chart shows where the burglaries were.
The following was where the assaults were at residences.
In fairness, two of the reports at 2900 Rio Rita were made at the same time.
The following is where the thefts and larcenies were overall
The information does not include the drug-related shooting on April 23 at Downing and Hikes. The database repeatedly does not show everything.
Otherwise, it is good news overall that crime reports were lower by over 40 percent, especially in light of the apparent increase in crime in Louisville Metro during the COVID19 lockdown.
It continues to be a good thing that many neighborhood residences have invested in Ring Doorbells and like devices. They are a good deterrent to burglaries and other crimes. Crime prevention is important in light of LMPD's more judicious response to situations to reduce the risk of exposure to COVID19.
When the Bon Air Neighborhood Association gets back together again, it will continue its support of the creation of Neighborhood Watches. It's not vigilantism, it is citizen involvement to make our neighborhood a safer place.
It is a Microsoft Excel CSV file that required some manipulation and sorting and beginning this year it was loaded into JASP, which is an open source statistical package. This analysis does include events that happen on the edge of the neighborhood.
As usual it includes the crimes reported within the boundaries of the historical Bon Air Neighborhood as defined:
1) Bardstown Road on the West
2) Hikes Lane on the South
3) Furman Blvd on the East and
4) Taylorsville Rd and the Watterson Expressway on the North.
The Analysis reflects events that happen on the lines and so some of the reports reflect what has happened just on the line and outside the geopolitical boundary of the neighborhood.
There were Eight (8) missing persons reports from 2300 Goldsmith Lane. They were kids that ran from Boys and Girls Haven maybe to the store or maybe because they just did not want to be there. But Boys and Girls Haven has to call the police when they run.
What mattered was that there were 48 (non-runaway) police reports for the month of April within the boundaries. That is down from 85 reports in March. A reduction in 42 perscent
Here are some of the relevant breakdowns.
There were 28 reports in the 40218 section and 19 in the 40220 section. There were 39 reports in the Bon Air section and 8 in the Highgate Springs section.
3600 Green Meadows was the location with the most police reports. The usually whipping post of 3300 Bardstown Rd only had three reports.
Crimes
at 3600 Green Meadows Drive
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
CRIME_TYPE
|
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
||||||
OTHER
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
THEFT/LARCENY
|
2
|
5
|
0.400
|
1.000
|
|||||||
VANDALISM
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
Day
of Week
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
DAY OF WEEK
|
FRIDAY
|
6
|
47
|
0.128
|
< .001
|
||||||
MONDAY
|
8
|
47
|
0.170
|
< .001
|
|||||||
SATURDAY
|
14
|
47
|
0.298
|
0.008
|
|||||||
THURSDAY
|
6
|
47
|
0.128
|
< .001
|
|||||||
TUESDAY
|
6
|
47
|
0.128
|
< .001
|
|||||||
WEDNESDAY
|
7
|
47
|
0.149
|
< .001
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
It is significant that the crimes mostly happened in houses.
Where
the Crimes Happened
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
PREMISE_TYPE
|
CYBERSPACE
|
1
|
47
|
0.021
|
< .001
|
||||||
DEPARTMENT / DISCOUNT STORE
|
1
|
47
|
0.021
|
< .001
|
|||||||
DRUG STORE/DR`S OFFICE/HOSPITAL
|
1
|
47
|
0.021
|
< .001
|
|||||||
HIGHWAY / ROAD / ALLEY
|
1
|
47
|
0.021
|
< .001
|
|||||||
OTHER / UNKNOWN
|
3
|
47
|
0.064
|
< .001
|
|||||||
OTHER RESIDENCE (APARTMENT/CONDO)
|
4
|
47
|
0.085
|
< .001
|
|||||||
PARKING LOT / GARAGE
|
5
|
47
|
0.106
|
< .001
|
|||||||
RESIDENCE / HOME
|
30
|
47
|
0.638
|
0.079
|
|||||||
SPECIALTY STORE (TV, FUR, ETC)
|
1
|
47
|
0.021
|
< .001
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
It is significant that the houses were almost equally split between the zip codes.
The
Location of Houses where Crime Reports Happened.
Descriptive Statistics
|
|||||
BLOCK_ADDRESS
|
|||||
40218
|
40220
|
||||
Valid
|
14
|
16
|
|||
Missing
|
0
|
0
|
|||
So, even thought the Bon Air section had more reports, when it was divided by zip code more houses in the 40220 district were the sites of reports over houses in 40218. The businesses were the significant difference in the number of reports between Bon Air and Highgate Springs.
The following chart shows what happened at residences in the neighborhood
What
Kind of Crimes Happened in Residences
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
CRIME_TYPE
|
ASSAULT
|
6
|
30
|
0.200
|
0.001
|
||||||
BURGLARY
|
4
|
30
|
0.133
|
< .001
|
|||||||
FRAUD
|
2
|
30
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
|||||||
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
|
1
|
30
|
0.033
|
< .001
|
|||||||
OTHER
|
5
|
30
|
0.167
|
< .001
|
|||||||
ROBBERY
|
1
|
30
|
0.033
|
< .001
|
|||||||
THEFT/LARCENY
|
5
|
30
|
0.167
|
< .001
|
|||||||
VANDALISM
|
4
|
30
|
0.133
|
< .001
|
|||||||
VEHICLE BREAK-IN/THEFT
|
2
|
30
|
0.067
|
< .001
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
The following chart shows where the burglaries were.
Location
of Burglaries In Residences
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
BLOCK_ADDRESS
|
2200 BLOCK BASHFORD MANOR LN
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
||||||
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
2800 BLOCK HIKES LN
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
300 BLOCK CHANEL CT
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
3400 BLOCK ROWENA RD
|
1
|
5
|
0.200
|
0.375
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
The following was where the assaults were at residences.
Location
of Assaults In Residences
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
BLOCK_ADDRESS
|
2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN
|
1
|
9
|
0.111
|
0.039
|
||||||
2500 BLOCK MEADOW DR
|
1
|
9
|
0.111
|
0.039
|
|||||||
2800 BLOCK DELL BROOKE AVE
|
1
|
9
|
0.111
|
0.039
|
|||||||
2900 BLOCK RIO RITA AVE
|
3
|
9
|
0.333
|
0.508
|
|||||||
3100 BLOCK ROSEDALE BLVD
|
1
|
9
|
0.111
|
0.039
|
|||||||
3100 BLOCK TALISMAN RD
|
1
|
9
|
0.111
|
0.039
|
|||||||
3200 BLOCK BON AIR AVE
|
1
|
9
|
0.111
|
0.039
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
In fairness, two of the reports at 2900 Rio Rita were made at the same time.
The following is where the thefts and larcenies were overall
Location
of Thefts/Larcenies In Residences
Binomial Test
|
|||||||||||
Variable
|
Level
|
Counts
|
Total
|
Proportion
|
p
|
||||||
BLOCK_ADDRESS
|
2200 BLOCK HEATHER LN
|
1
|
11
|
0.091
|
0.012
|
||||||
2600 BLOCK HIKES LN
|
1
|
11
|
0.091
|
0.012
|
|||||||
2900 BLOCK HIKES LN
|
1
|
11
|
0.091
|
0.012
|
|||||||
3200 BLOCK COMMANDER DR
|
2
|
11
|
0.182
|
0.065
|
|||||||
3200 BLOCK FURMAN BLVD
|
1
|
11
|
0.091
|
0.012
|
|||||||
3300 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
|
1
|
11
|
0.091
|
0.012
|
|||||||
3400 BLOCK BARDSTOWN RD
|
2
|
11
|
0.182
|
0.065
|
|||||||
3600 BLOCK GREEN MEADOWS DR
|
2
|
11
|
0.182
|
0.065
|
|||||||
Note. Proportions tested against value: 0.5.
|
|||||||||||
The information does not include the drug-related shooting on April 23 at Downing and Hikes. The database repeatedly does not show everything.
Otherwise, it is good news overall that crime reports were lower by over 40 percent, especially in light of the apparent increase in crime in Louisville Metro during the COVID19 lockdown.
It continues to be a good thing that many neighborhood residences have invested in Ring Doorbells and like devices. They are a good deterrent to burglaries and other crimes. Crime prevention is important in light of LMPD's more judicious response to situations to reduce the risk of exposure to COVID19.
When the Bon Air Neighborhood Association gets back together again, it will continue its support of the creation of Neighborhood Watches. It's not vigilantism, it is citizen involvement to make our neighborhood a safer place.
